Cowboys-Lions predictions and preview: Offsetting Detroit's strengths is big challenge

Sunday, the Detroit Lions return to AT&T Stadium where they played the Dallas Cowboys in December in a tight game (the Cowboys won 20-19) with plenty of controversy. A good bit has changed since that meeting — mostly in the form of injuries suffered by Dallas.

Also, with the win a season ago, the Cowboys finished the regular season undefeated at home. That hasn’t been the case this season. Dallas is 0-2 at AT&T Stadium and 3-0 on the road. The Lions are 3-1 after back-to-back wins against the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, followed by a bye this week.

The Athletic’s Saad Yousuf and Jon Machota break down the Sunday matchup (4:25 p.m. ET) in Arlington, Texas.

1. The Lions are coming off their bye week, the Cowboys off a tough Sunday night victory and they’re beat up. Not optimal for the Cowboys, is it?

Machota: It’s definitely not. The Cowboys received some good news this week as cornerback DaRon Bland returned to practice and appears on track to return from his foot injury. Rookie CB Caelen Carson (shoulder) and rookie LT Tyler Guyton (knee) look like they will be able to play as well. But being without Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Marshawn Kneeland leaves Dallas extremely thin at pass rusher. And that’s not a great sign going against a quarterback like Jared Goff who usually plays well when there isn’t a consistent pass rush around him. Goff is coming off an 18-for-18 passing performance in Detroit’s most recent game. If he has time, the Lions can pick up huge plays in the passing game to a quality receiving group led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

Yousuf: Add in the fact the Cowboys have curiously struggled at home this season, sporting an 0-2 record — they’re 3-0 on the road — and it’s even less ideal. It’s worth noting, though, that some of that has to do with the competition, too. The home opponents (Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints) have been better teams than the road opponents (Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers), but the Cowboys need to rekindle the home magic they had for nearly all of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The Lions are also a matchup nightmare because they have two good running backs, and the Cowboys have struggled to stop the run this season in those home games. Though Bland might return, no reinforcements are coming for the defensive front that remains decimated.

2. Dallas’ biggest challenge: Detroit’s Jared Goff-led passing game or its one-two punch at running back with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs?

Machota: It’s the running game. Though it’s been better the last two weeks, holding the Giants and Steelers under 100 yards rushing, this game has a chance to be much more like Dallas’ other two home games this year. The Saints and Ravens averaged 232 rushing yards in those dominant wins over the Cowboys. Detroit averages 151.3 rushing yards per game, and those two backs deserve a lot of credit, but it also helps to have one of the league’s top offensive lines. There’s no question the Lions are going to be testing that Dallas run defense early and often. They’d love to put together long drives, eat clock and keep Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb sitting on the bench.

PLAYER	ATT	YDS	YPC	YPG	TD
Jahmyr Gibbs	54	285	5.3	71.3	3
David Montgomery	63	271	4.3	67.8	4
	117	556	4.75	139	7

Yousuf: It’s the running game with Montgomery and Gibbs, but the passing game for the Lions is nothing to sneeze at, either. The Lions are one of the most balanced offenses in the league, in the sense you can’t really sell out to stop the running game or the passing game because the other can beat you as well. Aside from the Lions’ talent, much of the reason the running game is the bigger challenge is the Dallas side of things. The Cowboys could be getting Bland and Carson back to add to a secondary with all of the safeties healthy and cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis. The Cowboys are much more equipped to stop the pass than they are to limit any ground attack, let alone a talented backfield.

3. Why haven’t Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb gotten things going and is this the week it happens?

Machota: It needs to be. I’m not sure the Cowboys can beat the Lions without those two having a big day. Prescott insists he’s going to the most advantageous matchup and not forcing the ball to Lamb when he’s double covered. And that is often. Teams aren’t stupid, they know everything starts with Lamb on offense. If you’re game planning for the Cowboys, the best decision is to do everything to take away Lamb and make the others beat you. Prescott made that work with his connection with Jalen Tolbert on Sunday night. I have my doubts about that working again against the Lions. I’m not saying Lamb has to have the career day he did against Detroit in December, catching 13 of 17 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown, but he needs his best game of the year for Dallas to have a chance Sunday.

Yousuf: Of teams Lamb has faced multiple times in his career, his highest yards per game and yards per reception are against the Lions. Of course, a lot of that has to do with his incredible performance late last season boosting the averages, but Lamb has had success against this franchise. This is right about the time Prescott and Lamb turned the corner last year. Lamb went over 100 yards just once in the first five games last year before rattling off four consecutive games of 100-plus yards, beginning in Week 6. Defenses are playing chess with the Cowboys as it pertains to Lamb. The superstar receiver has 21 catches for 353 yards and a couple of touchdowns in the first half of games this season, followed by just four catches for 25 yards in the second half. The Cowboys — Lamb, Prescott and Mike McCarthy — need to figure out a way to keep Lamb involved in the second half without forcing the issue.

4. Aside from Prescott and Lamb, whom do the Cowboys need big performances from Sunday to beat the Lions?

Machota: Tolbert, Jake Ferguson and Rico Dowdle would be the next three in that order. Tolbert seems more confident than ever. The offseason work with Prescott appears to be paying off. Prescott and Ferguson continue to be a strong combination. Did Dowdle and the run game spark something against the Steelers? I have my doubts, but that would be a great sign for the Cowboys if they can build off of what was their best game on the ground this season. As Prescott has shown throughout his career, he has great trust in all of his receivers, so it shouldn’t be a surprise if he targets KaVontae Turpin or Hunter Luepke in a big situation either. Defensively, they have to find some way to pressure Goff, and it probably needs to be from more than just their four defensive linemen. Maybe that means some packages in which DeMarvion Overshown gets to be an extra rusher.

Yousuf: It depends on how you define “big” performance, but they need Dowdle to be effective on the ground, as he was in Pittsburgh. Dowdle didn’t post gaudy stats against the Steelers but he was an efficient runner and popped off a couple of double-digit runs. The final stat line was average, but the impact was what the Cowboys had been looking for when they entered Week 5 dead last in rushing. One player the Cowboys truly need to have a big performance from is left tackle Tyler Guyton. It appears that he’ll be good to go, and he’ll see a lot of Aidan Hutchinson across from him. Guyton held up decently against Myles Garrett in Week 1, but his main struggle this season has been penalties. He’ll need to cut those down while keeping Prescott clean and paving running lanes.

5. Prediction?

Machota: Lions 27, Cowboys 24. The Vegas line has been at three all week, and I think the Lions should be favored by closer to a touchdown. But I’ll go with the experts and their point spread. The Lions have too many offensive assets for a Dallas defense missing its top three pass rushers. I also wonder about Dallas’ ability to keep Hutchinson away from Prescott. He had three sacks in the December game while going against Tyron Smith. Is Guyton going to have more success? It seems unlikely, especially considering Hutchinson is playing even better right now. He is the favorite to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year, according to BetMGM. He’s listed at +275, just in front of T.J. Watt (+300), who had 1 1/2 sacks and three QB hits against the Cowboys on Sunday night.

Yousuf: I like the progress I’m seeing from the Cowboys offense, with Tolbert and Dowdle showing positive signs. Ferguson and Lamb might not be contributing to their full potential, but we know what they’re capable of, and that feels like a matter of “when” more than “if.” The real concern is the Cowboys defense, which was bad when it was at full strength and is operating without its top four defensive ends. That will be too much to overcome. Lions 33, Cowboys 28.

(Top photos of Dak Prescott and Jared Goff: Joe Sargent, Nic Antaya / Getty Images)