LOS ANGELES — The construction of the 2024 Padres began in earnest with an act of relative deconstruction. On Dec. 7, 2023, just 16 months after making one of the biggest moves in trade deadline history, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shipped away Juan Soto.
“We knew if we were going to deal Juan, we would need a lot of different ways to replace him,” Preller said as this October began. “I think both from a roster standpoint, a dollars-and-cents standpoint, that took us down a different path.
“We knew we would have to take a different approach to a roster build. And obviously, we’ve done it with different teams here in the last few years — at least get to the playoffs and win some series. And this year’s team (is) a little different, little different version, but it started in the offseason with that Soto decision.”
It did, and it sent the club down a path to something different: For the first time in years, if not decades, the Padres seemed to harness a sustainable formula for success.
Their lineup emphasized a contact-oriented approach amid the arrivals of Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill, whose previously unreported extension talks in spring training could set the stage for a long-term agreement this winter.
Their rotation welcomed a potential frontline starter in Michael King, the prize of the return for Soto. Their bullpen at the trade deadline was boosted by the additions of Tanner Scott and Jason Adam, who remains under team control.
Results and luck, of course, can vary wildly from year to year — or from series to series. These Padres surged to a 2-1 lead in the National League Division Series. Then, they lost the next two games in a fashion that was as stunning as it was crushing.
Still, after one of the biggest missed opportunities in franchise history, Merrill’s early-career stardom is one reason for optimism for next year and beyond. Payroll, after another season of record attendance, should continue to be robust. There should be enough money to bring back at least a couple of San Diego’s seven pending free agents. Joe Musgrove’s post-Tommy John absence will present a challenge, but Preller has shown the ability to restock a pitching staff. And, if nothing else, the 2024 Padres demonstrated a necessary ingredient for overcoming a significant payroll cut and the departure of multiple stars.
“I think we’ve played together as a group,” Preller said.
Here are three key questions as the Padres prepare to attempt another run at October in 2025.
1. Which players will be re-signed or extended?
Pending free agents include Jurickson Profar, Kyle Higashioka, Tanner Scott, David Peralta, Donovan Solano, Martín Pérez and Ha-Seong Kim, who recently hired agent Scott Boras, only adding to the expectation that he will decline his end of an $8 million mutual option in favor of testing the open market.
Profar and Higashioka are in their 30s, but both are candidates to return. The former, in particular, has enjoyed a symbiotic relationship with San Diego. In 11 seasons, Profar is a career .245 hitter with a .726 OPS. In five seasons with the Padres, he is a .257 hitter with a .753 OPS. In 2024, he was a first-time All-Star.
The most obvious candidates for an extension: Merrill, King, Arraez and Cease.
According to league sources, the Padres discussed a potential extension with Merrill last offseason, before he had played his first major-league game. But the two sides did not come to an agreement. Now, after the 21-year-old hit 24 home runs and led the team in FanGraphs wins above replacement, the price has jumped. The same is true with King, after he was the rotation’s most consistent performer in his first year as a full-time starter.
Arraez, after two trades in two years, has often expressed his interest in settling down. He is one of the most polarizing players in baseball. The Padres, however, hold in high esteem his combination of skills and intangibles.
Cease, a Scott Boras client, is a frontline starter who delivered the franchise’s second no-hitter. But, with a pair of postseason clunkers, he did not help himself.
2. Who plays shortstop next season?
It seems unlikely to be Merrill, and it might be many years before he moves from center field, a position he had never played before 2024. Fernando Tatis Jr., meanwhile, has entrenched himself as a slugging, Gold Glove right fielder.
Late this season, Xander Bogaerts slid back to shortstop to replace an injured Kim. Bogaerts, 31, did just OK in his return to his former position, and the Padres would prefer he open next year back at second base.
Kim, 28, should have more than a few suitors this winter, even after he underwent surgery in his throwing shoulder. Multiple teams would like to have him at least as a super-utility option. The Padres would like to have him back, depending on the price. That price ultimately could be deemed too steep. Aside from Willy Adames, the upcoming class of free-agent shortstops does not include much competition.
For all their abundance of former shortstops, it’s quite possible that the Padres’ 2025 starting shortstop is not yet in the organization.
3. For how long will the Padres extend Mike Shildt?
Last November, the Padres gave Mike Shildt a two-year contract to be Preller’s fifth full-time manager. It was an indication of limited leash for both men. Several months later, as the team hovered around .500, Preller remained on uncertain ground.
Then, the general manager traded for Scott, Adam, Pérez and Bryan Hoeing, all of whom proceeded to impress. Acquired early in the year, Cease and Arraez continued to stand out. And, after the All-Star break, the Padres went on the best second-half run in franchise history.
That should be enough to secure Preller’s job; the executive, whom late owner Peter Seidler extended through 2026, is not expected to go anywhere. Shildt, meanwhile, should be up for an extension of his own.
“Just from a fundamental standpoint, he does a great job with our players that understand the impact of some of the little thigns that lead to winning,” Preller said at the end of the regular season. “I think it’s just a daily reminder that he’s able to connect with our players and make it important to them in terms of teaching the game, winning baseball, the fundamentals standpoint, offensive baseball. … Whether it’s the first inning, the seventh inning, the ninth inning, it’s a group that has no quit. That’s in large part (due) to Mike and the staff.
“When we get to hopefully a long run here in the next couple of weeks, we’ll start looking forward. But he’s done a great job.”
With their run now ended, the Padres can start looking forward. Shildt appears due for an extension. The main question is the length.
(Top photo of Jackson Merrill after homering in the NLDS: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
