TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — It wasn’t the win Alabama wanted, but it’s the win it got. At least that’s how veteran defensive lineman Tim Smith sees it. The Crimson Tide avoided a second loss in as many weeks on Saturday, hanging on to beat unranked South Carolina 27-25.
Alabama still hasn’t lost back-to-back regular-season games since the 2007 season, Nick Saban’s first year, but the Gamecocks had a chance until the final seconds as 21.5-point underdogs.
“It should have been a lot more dominant and physical, but a dub is the dub,” Smith said.
To Smith’s point: As the weeks pass, this season is showing us that wins are hard to come by across the board. After last week’s chaos, seven Top 25 teams either won in overtime or won by one or two points in regulation this weekend. But to Smith’s other point, it still wasn’t the win that Alabama wanted or needed.
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Alabama ultimately responded with a win after last week’s loss, but it didn’t feel like a bounce-back, get-right game. Instead, there are perhaps more questions about who and what this team is through six games: Is it the team that ran through its nonconference schedule and dominated Georgia for a half or the team that has been outscored 92-71 during the past 10 quarters?
Next Saturday will be revealing as Alabama travels to Tennessee, which escaped against unranked Florida in overtime on Saturday. Until then, the question looms over Alabama: Is this a College Football Playoff team and potential championship contender? There is reason for optimism and pessimism in the answer.
Bro we need a miracle every week it shouldn’t be this way https://t.co/ZQ0JWiJHoQ
— Mark Ingram II (@markingramII) October 12, 2024
Reason for optimism: At any given time, Jalen Milroe is the best player on the field.
This was Milroe’s worst game of the season, but when the game was in the balance, he was the game-changer Alabama needed. After the defense forced a turnover with 12:17 remaining with the Tide trailing 19-14, Milroe led Alabama to back-to-back touchdown drives. He accounted for 80 of the 98 combined yards and both touchdowns and has recorded at least three touchdowns in five of six games this season.
Big-time moments down the stretch have become the norm for Milroe, who already has memorable late-game plays against Georgia and Auburn. His development as a passer has been a big part of Alabama’s high-powered offense. He’s completing 73.4 percent of his throws while ranking second nationally in yards per attempt (11.7). And he’s one rushing touchdown away from tying the Alabama quarterback single-season record held by Jalen Hurts.
That’s not to excuse Saturday’s turnovers or a few negative plays for holding the ball too long, but Milroe has been one of the nation’s best players this season.
Reason for pessimism: Team discipline.
Alabama entered Saturday ranked 94th nationally in total penalties, and Saturday’s seven penalties (including three personal fouls) won’t improve that.
The Crimson Tide have had 22 offensive penalties on first or second down, consistently setting the offense back. There have been multiple instances when penalties directly have led to opponent points, including Milroe’s intentional grounding on Saturday and two penalties that extended touchdown drives for Vanderbilt (there are others).
“We’re striving for zero,” DeBoer said. “That’s what we’re trying to do. We emphasize it. Every situation is a learning one, and we’re going to talk about that.”
Plus, this team is struggling with turnovers. Before Saturday’s game, Alabama ranked 65th nationally with seven turnovers lost, and it lost two more against South Carolina.
Reason for optimism: This isn’t much different from last year.
Alabama’s past three games aren’t a carbon copy of Alabama’s early season slate last season, but the 2023 team had a three-game stretch of Texas, South Florida and Ole Miss when it suffered an early loss, struggled against an unranked team and was searching for an identity against Ole Miss. And that doesn’t include one-score wins over teams like Arkansas and Texas A&M. That team progressed throughout the regular season and ended up winning the SEC.
One glaring difference is the head coach, but Alabama’s exactly where it was projected to be at this point: a top-10 team that’s squarely in the mix for the SEC title and the Playoff.
Reason for pessimism: Defense and special teams appear to be in decline.
Alabama’s special teams units showed a few potential cracks against Georgia. Now it’s a full-blown issue. Alabama has muffed or fumbled a kickoff return in three straight games. Milroe’s intentional grounding at the end of the first half was put into motion by a personal foul penalty on the kickoff right before that, which pinned the offense deep in its territory.
Then there’s the successful and inexplicable onside kick by South Carolina during which Alabama’s “hands” team featured multiple tight ends, defensive linemen and linebackers. Several of them touched the ball but couldn’t corral it before the Gamecocks recovered it.
SOUTH CAROLINA RECOVERS THE ONSIDE KICK 🚨
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 12, 2024
These issues followed last week’s game when an illegal substitution on a punt return gave Vanderbilt a free first down en route to a touchdown. Kicker Graham Nicholson has two field goal attempts this season: a miss at Wisconsin and a narrow 30-yard make against Georgia. The only true positive constant this year has been punter James Burnip.
Alabama’s defense responded with four forced turnovers on Saturday, but the group’s overall decline during the past 10 quarters is noticeable. Before the Georgia game, the defense ranked second nationally in third-down defense, 13th in scoring defense and 19th in total defense. That same unit has allowed 83 points, 1,158 yards and a 47.7 percent third-down conversion rate during the past 10 quarters.
Reason for optimism: For the most part, this is a clutch team.
Saturday’s game wasn’t up to Alabama’s typical standards, but the team made enough plays down the stretch to win. That has been a pretty consistent theme this season.
The defense didn’t hold up against Vanderbilt, but the offense scored a late touchdown on fourth-and-goal to bring the team within one score with a few minutes to play. We’re all aware of the late-game magic Alabama produced to survive against Georgia, and in Week 2 against South Florida when it was a 14-13 game in the fourth quarter, a furious 28-3 Alabama run turned the game on its head.
Ideally, Alabama would be consistent throughout games to avoid the need for late-game heroics, but it’s nice to know that the team usually doesn’t shrink in those moments. That’s a big intangible considering there are road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma still on the schedule.
Reason for pessimism: A few key position groups are showing cracks.
It was a rough game for Alabama’s offensive line on Saturday: four sacks and nine tackles for loss (credit South Carolina, which boasts arguably the best front in the SEC). Still, Alabama has allowed six sacks during the past two games (one resulted in a fumble) after allowing zero sacks against Georgia. The running game didn’t fare much better as Alabama averaged a sack-adjusted 3.7 yards per carry against South Carolina.
During the week, we learned that starting right guard Jaeden Roberts is playing through multiple injuries. This group’s depth was a question mark entering the season, and it can’t afford to lose another starter or have another starter compromised by injury. That’s not the only offensive injury of note: Starting receivers Kobe Prentice and Kendrick Law missed Saturday’s game, and receiver Cole Adams is already playing with an arm brace.
Starting cornerback Domani Jackson left the game in the second quarter with an injury, and the dropoff was noticeable. South Carolina scored its first touchdown throwing to Jackson’s side when he was out. Jackson eventually came back and made an impact, including the game-sealing interception, but Saturday drove home the point that Alabama’s one injury away from four true freshmen playing major snaps in the secondary.
Reason for optimism: Alabama vs. the field.
The last point but certainly not the least: Alabama’s not an elite team right now. But who is?
In a season filled with chaos, Texas has avoided it, but its matchup with Georgia is on the horizon. Ohio State and Oregon played a classic game on Saturday that lived up to the top-three matchup billing. But which top-10 team not named Texas hasn’t lost to subpar competition or had at least one close call? A lot of contenders are asking the same question we are about Alabama: How good is this team?
Don’t forget that Alabama had the best win of the season until Oregon’s win on Saturday, and depending on who you ask, the Tide still might.
(Top photo of Kalen DeBoer: Butch Dill / Imagn Images)
