Fantasy football Week 6 recap: Can you trust Kyler Murray?

This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 6 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

Can Kyler Murray be trusted in starting lineups?

Deciding whether or not to start Kyler Murray has been one of the toughest calls for fantasy managers this year. Murray’s one of only eight quarterbacks with two or more games of 24-plus points, yet he is also one of 13 quarterbacks with four games of 15 or fewer points. For reference, the 17-point mark equals the current minimum for QB1 status, which means Murray is falling short far too often. 

What’s odd is that Murray’s 5.0 points per game (PPG) on rush plays ranks tied for eighth among quarterbacks. That metric is often an effective boost to posting QB1 point totals. If a quarterback can score five points per game on the ground, he only needs 12 pass points per game (something reachable with 200 passing yards and one touchdown) to hit QB1 status.

Murray’s shortcomings have more to do with his arm than his legs, though. In 2022 and 2023, Murray ranked dead last in vertical pass PPG. He started this year by posting zero vertical pass points against Buffalo in Week 1, yet seemed to be on the path to turning things around with a 19.68-point showing against the Rams in Week 2.

Most of those points (13.2) were on passes to Marvin Harrison Jr., which suggested greater heights in games ahead, but since then Murray tallied only 1.88, 0.76 and 1.44 points on vertical throws to Harrison in Weeks 3-5. The net result: Murray ranks 26th in vertical PPG since Week 3.

If Murray can’t turn this around, it will be very difficult for him to earn weekly start status.

Spinning it forward

If Harrison’s Week 6 concussion causes him to miss any time this will become even more challenging, but that’s not the only impediment. The Cardinals rest-of-season pass coverage schedule is not favorable, with two of the next four games against the Bears and Jets. After that, there is a Week 11 bye, then road matchups against Seattle and Minnesota.

None of those games suggest QB1 status even if Murray starts to show vertical pass improvement. The advice here is to hope that Murray has another strong rushing game soon and then trade him away. It might be the only way to get good ROI for him.

Can Chicago Bears players keep up this scoring pace? Or is it time to trade them?

The Bears’ five offensive touchdowns against the Jaguars marked the second game in a row Chicago has tallied five offensive scores. Per the NBC “Sunday Night Football” broadcast, it is the first time this has happened for the Bears since the 1956 season.

With the Bears on a bye this week, some owners may think this is a good time to trade Bears players while their stock is high but even more high-scoring games could be in their future.

The main reason is how Chicago fares in my shootout points category, which measures the likelihood a team will get into scoreboard shootouts. A green rating here indicates this is highly likely to occur, a yellow rating is neutral and a red rating points towards a lower scoring matchup. Chicago has a green rating in this category from Week 8 to Week 17, with the lone exception of Week 10 against the New England Patriots. That’s nine out of ten possible games in the fantasy season with a potential scoreboard shootout. With that type of lineup matchup, there is very little upside to trading away any Chicago players.

This also indicates that there is upside in rostering someone like Rome Odunze. He is available in nearly 35 percent of leagues due to some subpar performances, but this schedule suggests he is a high-value roster stash.

Is the Houston backfield now a split carry situation? 

Houston acquired Joe Mixon in part because of his bell-cow track record. He was the only player to post five seasons with 270 or more scrimmage plays since 2018.

The Texans wanted that usage out of Mixon and gave him 33 scrimmage plays in Week 1. Mixon then tallied 12 scrimmage plays in just over two quarters in Week 2 before suffering an ankle injury that kept him out of the lineup for Weeks 3-5.

The team may have realized it was pushing the envelope too much with Mixon’s workload level and can be seen in the Texans’ Week 6 running back snap counts. These numbers are through the first three quarters, as Mixon was used on only one play in the fourth quarter given how Houston had put the game away.

The Texans may now view this backfield as a lead/alternate setup, with Mixon as the lead and Dameon Pierce/Dare Ogunbowale as the alternates. This makes sense since Houston aspires to play well beyond the end of the regular season and wants to keep Mixon healthy for a postseason run.

Lead backs don’t generate as much fantasy value as bell cows, but when they are in powerful offenses like the Texans’, they are almost always low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 candidates. Mixon should retain that value even with the change, but savvy managers will add Pierce to their rosters due both to increased usage and insurance if Houston forgets to manage Mixon’s work volume.

How should fantasy managers deal with the Giants backfield once Devin Singletary returns?

Converted wide receiver Tyrone Tracy Jr. has helped the Giants offense not miss a beat during Devin Singletary’s injury absence. And fantasy managers benefited due to Tracy posting 36.7 points over the past two games.

So, what are the Giants likely to do once Singletary returns? And how might that impact Tracy’s value?

Fantasy points per play (PPP) is a solid proxy metric for how good a skill position player is on the field. This year, Singletary ranks tied for 34th out of 40 running backs in PPP (minimum 50 scrimmage plays). It may seem like Tracy has been a much more productive back, yet the reality is Tracy’s 0.78 mark is tied for 26th and really isn’t that much better than Singletary’s 0.71 PPP. 

What this nearly identical production pace likely means is that the Giants will likely turn this into a platoon upon Singletary’s return. Managers should keep both Singletary and Tracy on rosters, as a platoon setup between these two could generate RB2/flex value for each back through the rest of the season.

Side note: We like to pass along interesting stat elements any time we find them. One of those cropped up while researching the Singletary/Tracy scoring situation.

Check out the top 11 list for the running back PPP metric mentioned above:

The two names that stand out as potentially underrated are Alexander Mattison (1.08, tied for second) and Zach Charbonnet (1.06, tied for fifth).

This shows why Mattison may be worth putting in a higher-than-expected bid in FAAB leagues, as he will be highly sought after following a 17.5-point game against Pittsburgh. He’s likely worth more than a token bid. Be aggressive in your pursuit.

It also makes Charbonnet a good trade-low candidate if you can get him, given his production pace and Kenneth Walker III’s inconsistent durability track record.

(Top photo of Kyler Murray: Mitchell Leff/Getty)