Is there a significant trade in the Edmonton Oilers' near future?

The Edmonton Oilers have delivered a disappointing start to the 2024-25 season, and there are legitimate worries about the roster.

The losses of Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway due to a St. Louis Blues offer sheet chess move blew up roster plans for Edmonton’s management.

Quick work (GM Stan Bowman had been on the job in Edmonton for about one month) brought in defenceman Ty Emberson and winger Vasily Podkolzin in separate deals.

Through three games, all losses, the Oilers appear to have a top pairing (Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard) followed by five defencemen in search of a solution:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Experts suggest 200 minutes are required to begin trusting the numbers, so we’re several games from anything beyond anecdotal.

We can see that Emberson is 0-4 goals at five-on-five through two games (he was scratched for the Sunday tilt versus the Calgary Flames) with two separate partners. He looked much better via the eye test with Brett Kulak in the second game, but there is worry about the Oilers’ young defender.

Darnell Nurse and Travis Dermott posted good numbers together in the Saturday game against the Chicago Blackhawks but were challenged against their provincial rivals on Sunday.

Through three games the coaching staff has no answers. Breaking up the top pair is possible, or playing Ekholm-Bouchard more minutes per game could be the next path chosen. A roster addition may be under consideration.

Trade or sign?

There are signs the organization is casting about in search of possible blue-line additions.

Pierre Lebrun and Chris Johnston at The Athletic reported recently the Oilers have been in contact with Kevin Shattenkirk’s agent. The team was also connected in the article to free agent Mark Giordano.

Ideally, the club would have enough success to wait until the deadline and then pluck a solution, via trade, from a wider pool of available talent. A right-handed defenceman capable of playing big minutes versus elites and who is an option for trade is something of a unicorn.

There is one who might currently be available, and that makes things interesting.

Edmonton hasn’t been linked to Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Timothy Liljegren, but the young defender’s name is out there in trade rumours this fall.

The issue could reach a pressure point due to the lack of playing time for the right-handed defenceman in Toronto. He has NHL experience (196 games) but can’t get into the Maple Leafs lineup.

A week ago, Jonas Seigel at The Athletic wrote “Liljegren has been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Conor Timmins, a deep cut on the Toronto defence in recent years, and Philippe Myers, who played in only five NHL games last season. In other words, the Leafs’ No. 8 defenceman at the moment is Liljegren.”

Liljegren is by far the most interesting player in the group and the one who would require the most to acquire. Whereas Shattenkirk and Giordano would require only a contract, Liljegren’s procurement would mean assets out from the Edmonton side (likely draft picks).

Using those assets now might lessen the quality of the deadline pickup.

Who’s better? 

If we look at each player who might possibly be available, there’s an interesting takeaway from the numbers. Here’s the Puck IQ breakdown of usage by each player in 2023-24:

All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ

Puck IQ gives us insight into what value a coach puts on a specific player. In this case, Liljegren was easily the most trusted defenceman (by his coach) among the three players who may be available at this time.

Since Liljegren and Giordano both played for Toronto, the Puck IQ usage graph (often called a “sledgehammer” because it announces the coaches thinking with authority) gives us a very strong view of the 2023-24 Maple Leafs depth chart:

Liljegren trails only T.J. Brodie, Morgan Reilly and Jake McCabe in time on ice versus elites, and his results (Dangerous Fenwick percentage, similar to expected goals) trail only McCabe.

A year ago, Liljegren was a top-four defenceman against elites and delivered a 50 percent share of five-on-five events. The Maples Leafs scored 62.5 percent of the total goals while he was on the ice.

This is a quality player card.

The new general manager

Bowman has made October trades in the past (2020) in an effort to clear cap space and reset a veteran roster.

Traditionally, a team making three summer moves on defence (bringing in Emberson and Dermott, plus veteran Josh Brown who is currently with the AHL Bakersfield Condors) would show patience and allow the team to find its way.

That’s especially true after just three games.

One reason we could see a quick trade or signing? If the organization believes a mistake was made in assessing the talent acquired.

Edmonton’s defensive template showed Broberg as the top option for Nurse’s partner this fall, with (now departed) Cody Ceci as the fallback position. Troy Stecher, still on the roster, was also in the mix.

Broberg’s exit and the trade of Ceci (for Emberson) means a lot of moving parts for coach Kris Knoblauch (also a rookie, this was his first training camp and preseason) in a short time span.

Preseason is a difficult time for any team. Mistakes are often made due to decisions based on small samples.

Bowman will want to put his stamp on this team. That may override all other logical and reasonable moves being contemplated.

Bottom line

Some Oilers fans are convinced the first big move by Bowman will be the announcement of Joel Quenneville as the team’s new head coach.

That would be a shocking development this early.

The smart play is patience. It’s three games. Injuries and a desire to slow-play veterans led to the Oilers lacking intensity and urgency in the first two games.

As much as Liljegren might help (he’s a strong option for any NHL team needing a right-handed blueliner), Emberson and Dermott just got here and Brown must be in the plans based on the long-term deal signed just a couple of months ago.

Still, if the losses outnumber the wins in the days to come, the voices suggesting Edmonton signed a bunch of No. 7 defencemen over the summer will get louder.

The question is this: How many of those voices are in the Oilers hockey ops department, and how high up the chain of command are those voices?

(Photo of Timothy Liljegren: Jerome Miron / USA Today)