EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — After two straight road losses, the Bills seemed well on their way to a third.
An Aaron Rodgers heave into the end zone at the end of the first half turned a two-score Bills lead into a puny three-point advantage over the Jets, and the Bills had no one to blame but themselves. For the next quarter and a half, the Bills offense couldn’t get out of its own way.
But the defense held its ground well enough, the Bills offense did just enough at the tail end, and Buffalo escaped with a 23-20 victory over the Jets and a firm hold of the AFC East lead. With the win, the 4-2 Bills remain in control of their playoff destiny but still have questions about their roster.
Here are several observations from the Bills’ victory.
The Bills went big on offense in more ways than one
Facing a host of questions about the overall effectiveness of their passing attack, rather than forcing the issue, the Bills took the opposite approach. All season, the strength of the offense has been the running game, and they leaned into it in a big way against the Jets. The Bills said they wanted to bring the physicality to the line of scrimmage, and that’s how offensive coordinator Joe Brady approached his play calls. Over the Bills’ 57 non-penalized and non-kneeldown offensive snaps, Brady had the Bills in one of 12 personnel (two tight ends), 13 personnel (three tight ends) or 22 personnel (one fullback, two tight ends) on 52.6 percent of their snaps. That’s also how they gained the majority of their yards in the contest, generating 6.7 yards per play over all those snaps. They also scored all three of their touchdowns in one of those personnel groupings, as it was clearly their matchup advantage.
However, it likely wouldn’t have been possible without rookie running back Ray Davis stepping in for the injured James Cook as well as he did. Davis was a revelation on Monday night, the unexpected engine of the Bills’ offense that couldn’t get out of the mud for the last two weeks. The rookie was seemingly always on the front foot. He showed great vision, good physicality, good movement skills and he was always falling forward for more yardage. Then when you throw in the 42-yard reception on an improvisational play, Davis was the star of the show. Yet again with the wide receivers failing to provide much of a spark (nine receptions for 97 yards), it made the Davis performance that much more impressive. The Bills likely don’t win without Davis setting the tone.
Defense bailed the team out, but the explosive plays are getting worrisome
For the second week in a row, the Bills defense has deserved the credit for keeping the team afloat and in position for a win with its efforts in the second half. The defense has allowed only nine points in the second half of their last two games, which is an outstanding accomplishment. It takes quite a bit of mental strength to sustain that many difficult moments and still get stops. However, they are taking the bend-but-don’t-break philosophy to a bit of an extreme, as the Jets routinely marched the ball down the field, only to see the majority of their drives end without a touchdown — and sometimes even without any points. It all comes back to the explosive plays allowed by the Bills, which have gone from a one-game issue to a full-on trend.
Of the Jets’ non-penalty 57 plays, the Bills allowed an explosive play — a gain of ten or more yards — 15 times. That’s a whopping 26.8 percent of their plays, which is a horrible stat for only one game. But it’s not only one game. It’s become a fairly consistent trend for defensive coordinator Bobby Babich and head coach Sean McDermott. The Bills allowed an explosive play on 18 of the 66 non-penalty plays against the Texans, and then another 14 in 54 non-penalty plays against the Ravens. That’s a combined 47 explosive plays against over their last three games, with an explosive play-against rate of 26.7 percent. All of these figures are unsustainable — especially with an offense still trying to figure things out.
One of the hallmarks of the Bills’ great defenses from past seasons was to avoid what they called “explosives.” Some of the problems are likely personnel-driven. The defensive line hasn’t been getting a consistent enough push. Then on the back end, the tackling has been an issue at times this year. The safety play has left the most to be desired — and as the players who should put a cap on those big plays, getting beat at this jaw-dropping rate is a humongous issue. The Bills undoubtedly need more from those starters if they hope to curb this problem.
The Taron Johnson difference
Although there was a slight bit of rust early on in the game, star nickel corner Taron Johnson eventually settled into a difference-making role for the Bills during his first game back. Johnson had missed the previous four games due to a fractured forearm suffered just seven plays into Week 1, and it’s been a long stretch without one of their best players. But he immediately jumped back into the fray with some extremely tough run defending. Then his play to seal the game in the fourth quarter with a sliding interception was just yet another reason why he’s one of their most clutch and trusted defenders on the field.
WELCOME BACK, TARON‼️
📺: @ESPNNFL pic.twitter.com/9s9ZTphPBQ
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 15, 2024
But even his mere presence on the field made a difference, as the Bills felt compelled to stay in nickel almost the entire game, regardless of the personnel formations the Jets decided to use against them. With Cam Lewis in the game, they would have sacrificed some size and physicality, but that was no longer a consideration with Johnson in the lineup. And with how his teammates talked about him after the game, you could tell Johnson was sorely missed on the field.
It’s time to act at kicker
After another evening of struggles and costing the team points in a near loss, kicker Tyler Bass should no longer be afforded the benefit of the doubt. The Bills have been patient, and have given Bass the time and space to figure everything out. From the offseason workouts to the training camp and preseason struggles, and then carrying over into the regular season, the Bills are fortunate the Jets’ double doink kicker Greg Zuerlein was just as bad otherwise they could be 3-3 and in second place in the AFC East. Bass cost the Bills four points in this game. The first was on a “blocked” extra point attempt, though the trajectory of the kick before it was blocked was veering towards a miss. The NFL even removed the block from the game’s official scorebook. Later on, in a 47-yard attempt, Bass booted it wide right. Although his season-long stats don’t look horrible, a deeper dive shows the time is coming for the team to act. Bass has only made two out of five attempts from 40 or more yards — the very same distance that had given him trouble this summer. The Bills have been fortunate that Bass hasn’t directly cost them a game, but eventually, that luck will run out as his misfires have turned from a cold streak into just who he is right now.
So what do the Bills do? The first and likeliest step is to sign a kicker to the practice squad. That way it provides some insurance to the team while putting some heat on Bass to know that he can’t keep going like this much longer. Perhaps Bass gets one more game, but should the struggles continue, that’s when practice squad elevations come into play. The team can no longer afford to sit on their hands, and you can tell McDermott is frustrated. When asked about his confidence level in Bass, the coach said only one thing. “Bottom line, he knows he needs to make those kicks.” A mic drop, of sorts. Don’t be surprised if there’s a kicker acquisition at some point in the next few days.
A big sign their confidence in Dorian Williams is growing
Despite a loss to the Texans in Week 5, one of the under-the-radar storylines was in how well second-year linebacker Dorian Williams performed in all functions of the job. He was rock solid in coverage, run-defending and it seemed like the game had slowed down for him. Week 5 was easily his best game in the NFL to date. The Bills seemed to agree about Williams’ growth as a player because his role changed on Monday night. Through the first five games, they took Williams off the field and played dime in most third-down and obvious passing situations, likely because they didn’t want opponents to use his aggressiveness against him. But against the Jets, Williams rarely left the field in any situation. The only time he wasn’t on defense was at the end of the first half with the Bills in a prevent defense on only three plays. He took the other 62 snaps alongside middle linebacker Terrel Bernard. The team must feel extremely optimistic about how much Williams has grown as a player over the last month.
Bills MVP: RB Ray Davis — Even if he didn’t technically get the “start,” Davis took nearly 60 percent of the running back snaps and wound up with 152 all-purpose yards on only 23 touches. They raced out to an early lead because of his running and how well the offensive line was blocking for him.
Bills LVP: Sean McDermott — The Hail Mary touchdown nearly cost the Bills the game because of how over-the-top they defended the sideline to prevent field goal distance at the end of the first half. Effectively having Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa face-guard the first down marker on each side of the field took two rushers away from Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers checked into the Hail Mary and zapped the Bills of all their goodwill heading into the half.
Up Next: After three straight road games, the 4-2 Bills head home to take on the 1-4 Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. in Orchard Park.
(Top photo of Taron Johnson: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
