Somehow, someway we’ve arrived at the midpoint of the Penn State football season. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 3 in the AP Top 25, their highest ranking since 2017, and they are one of 11 undefeated teams left in the FBS.
This second idle week is a great time to survey where things stand and where the season might be heading with a massive game in Beaver Stadium against No. 4 Ohio State looming on Nov. 2.
If you’re new, here’s how it works: I’ve searched my brain for a handful of narratives that are most interesting and relevant as we hit the midpoint of the season. I then wrestled with these ideas to determine if they were facts or myths.
Penn State should make the College Football Playoff field
Verdict: Fact
At 6-0, Penn State has a 91 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, per The Athletic’s Austin Mock. That’s about as good as one can hope for at this point. Not only are the Nittany Lions a near lock to make the 12-team field, but they also have a 47 percent chance to host a Playoff game.
Should Penn State win the Big Ten, it would be seeded somewhere between No. 1 through No. 4 and have a first-round bye. It’s shaping up to be a four-team race in the Big Ten among Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and … undefeated Indiana. If Penn State beats Ohio State, the Buckeyes would have two losses and Penn State would either be undefeated or have one loss, depending on what happens at next week’s game against Wisconsin at Camp Randall (kick is set for 7:30 p.m. ET).
Divisions are gone, so the Big Ten title game will be between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the overall conference standings. That’s why I included Indiana in this conversation.
For argument’s sake, let’s pencil Oregon in for one slot in the Big Ten title game. The Ducks’ biggest remaining games are against No. 22 Illinois, No. 24 Michigan and Washington.
The tiebreakers for the conference title game first include head-to-head matchups during the season (yet another reason why Penn State-Ohio State is massive). The second tiebreaker is how teams fared against common conference opponents. Third is records against common opponents. The six-step tiebreakers can be found here ending with … a random drawing.
So, let’s say Ohio State beats Penn State and both teams finish the season with one loss. Then, Ohio State owns the tiebreaker for the title game over PSU given the head-to-head win. If Penn State beats Ohio State, PSU is in the driver’s seat. Ohio State would then have at least two losses and unless Penn State massively slips up along the way — there’s a favorable path forward with games against Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland — Ohio State would have to win out and hope Penn State loses three of those remaining four games. That’s highly unlikely. Indiana is part of the conversation but still has a difficult road ahead with games against Nebraska, Michigan and Ohio State.
If Penn State beats Ohio State you can start seriously considering that trip to Indianapolis. Or, save your money for a Playoff run. Or, throw caution to the wind and recognize you’re in the midst of a special season and figure out the financial details later if you can.
Drew Allar is playing like the five-star quarterback Penn State envisioned
Verdict: Fact
Credit Andy Kotelnicki’s scheme, an offensive line that’s giving him plenty of time and a tight end who can catch the football, throw the football, snap the football — seriously what can’t Tyler Warren do? — and this is the Drew Allar Penn State has been waiting for. The game-tying drive at USC was one of those moments Penn State fans should remember whenever Allar’s college football career ends.
Could Allar have orchestrated a drive like that last season? Even he wasn’t so sure.
“Getting out of the sack maybe is a toss-up from last year,” Allar said.
I’ll say it: That drive does not happen last season. Allar’s increased mobility is part of this season’s success. Something else that’s come up with Allar and several players on offense is how prepared they said they feel. Allar called himself “the most prepared quarterback in college football” a few weeks ago. He’s quick to credit Kotelnicki and quarterbacks coach Danny O’Brien for that. That game-tying drive is something Penn State regularly reps to make sure Allar feels prepared when those moments arrive. This offseason Allar said he even barked into the voice memos app on his phone so he could listen to himself recite plays. There’s a confidence and authority to him now that comes with experience but also success.
Allar’s completion percentage is up significantly from last year, too. He’s completed 70.5 percent of his passes during the first half of the season after completing 59.9 percent last year and 58.3 percent (60 pass attempts) as a freshman. Here’s another detail to consider: For the first time during the Franklin era the Nittany Lions should have the more talented quarterback in the Penn State-Ohio State game. Will Howard has more weapons around him, but when it comes to arm talent and skill, Allar is the better choice. That doesn’t necessarily mean Penn State wins, but it’s one detail to think about.
The lulls of the Penn State defense will cost this team a game
Verdict: Hung jury
There have been some inconsistent quarters and halves for Tom Allen’s group. At halftime against USC the outcome looked bleak for a defense that was getting shredded by USC’s skill players and Lincoln Riley’s creativity. The first half against Bowling Green felt similar. An opening touchdown drive from Illinois was a tone setter too.
However, Penn State held USC to six points off two Allar interceptions. Safety Jaylen Reed picked off USC QB Miller Moss late in regulation to stave off any chance the Trojans had of a last-second field goal. The Nittany Lions held USC to a field goal attempt in the first overtime, too. While Penn State surrendered 409 yards to the Trojans, there needs to be some recognition of the speed and talent USC has. The statistics show that this is still a successful defense, even if the linebacker play might be problematic. Now, a bad half against Ohio State and other top-10 teams could cost Penn State a game. But, that hasn’t been the case yet. Penn State has two weeks to figure out if this defense can play a complete game.
Penn State’s defense is still eighth in the FBS in total defense, surrendering an average of 262.5 yards per game and 4.51 yards per play. For comparison, last year’s defense, second in FBS, gave up 247.6 yards per game and 4.16 yards per play. Sure, one would like to see the defense play at a consistent level for four quarters, but the overall marks aren’t that far off from a year ago even if the fan discourse sounds more negative these days.
The win at USC is Penn State’s most significant since upsetting No. 2 Ohio State in 2016
Verdict: Fact
I wanted to sit on this idea for a few days. Admittedly, it’s a little odd on the surface to point to a win against an unranked opponent as some sort of monumental victory. But, if you’re reading this then you likely recognize the significance of this win on so many levels. Penn State traveled across the country and for the first time in a long time didn’t stumble as a top-five team playing on the road. That detail is massive in terms of shifting the narrative of Penn State and James Franklin rising in big moments.
Also, when looking at Penn State’s Playoff resume one needs to remember that USC was desperate. Just outside the Top 25, that’s a talented team with the best quarterback Penn State has seen this season — and Moss might be the best QB it faces this regular season, too.
Allar needed to lead a game-tying drive and showed he could step up and deliver when the heat was on. Those were the moments Penn State fans have been waiting for from the five-star quarterback.
While Penn State is also responsible for the hole it dug in that 20-6 halftime deficit, the response taught us a lot about this program. It sets the stage for the rest of the season.
The only win that I think one could try and argue was more significant was Penn State’s 53-39 drubbing of Memphis in the Cotton Bowl in December 2019. Penn State was ranked 13th and Memphis 15th. Micah Parsons put forth a mind-bending performance. Journey Brown rushed for 202 yards. Now, I’d say the USC win is more significant in part because USC football is a powerful brand. Also, it was on the road and not a neutral site. And, that bowl game wasn’t a springboard to anything good for Penn State. Instead, it ended up being Parsons’ last collegiate game and within months Brown was forced to medically retire. The 4-5 season that followed was forgettable for so many reasons, many of them outside of Penn State’s control.
The value of the regular season is diminished thanks to the 12-team Playoff field
Verdict: Myth
Enjoy the ride this season. For those who say the importance of regular season games has diminished because of the expanded field they clearly weren’t watching as Penn State converted a pair of fourth-down plays en route to forcing overtime. USC fans were as animated as Penn State’s watching as their Playoff bid essentially evaporated in overtime.
If the importance of the regular season is diminished, then everyone will be rational about the stakes of Penn State-Ohio State in a few weeks. We know that’s not the case. That’s going to be a huge moment this season one way or the other. This is a season with what feels like a wide-open Playoff race and Penn State is in the thick of it. Savor this.
Also, recognize that a lot has been geared up for this year. There’s a distinct possibility that many of this year’s stars like Allar, Nick Singleton, Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton and Kaytron Allen aren’t here next year. Tyler Warren, Kobe King and Nick Dawkins are among those out of eligibility after this year. Safety KJ Winston, dealing with a long-term injury, could be off to the NFL as well. Assuming Allar moves on, is next year’s starting quarterback even on this roster? I don’t know. It could be Beau Pribula’s turn or there could be a lot asked of Ethan Grunkemeyer during his second season. If Allar moves on, and he’s having the type of season that is putting him in position to do so, snagging a transfer portal quarterback this offseason could be a possibility.
(Top photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
