The first best-on-best international hockey tournament in nearly a decade is quickly approaching.
The 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in February will be the first time we’ve seen the best hockey players in the world compete for their countries since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. With that long of a layoff, the national associations for the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland are essentially selecting brand-new teams. The 23-man rosters must be submitted by Dec. 2, and some of the toughest choices will come in net, where teams will choose three goaltenders.
We already know one of the goalies, as Finland’s Juuse Saros was amongst the 24 players announced in late June. That was an easy choice, as Saros is one of the brightest Finnish stars in the NHL. Some of the other decisions will require more deliberation, especially for the United States, which has three Vezina contenders vying for the net.
Canada has an entirely different dilemma. The country that has produced many of the best goalies in the sport’s history is suddenly without a clear star in the crease. Pierre LeBrun detailed the decisions general manager Don Sweeney will have to make last week, so let’s start there as we predict the goalies for each country.
Canada
The perceived top option for Canada is St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington, who is quietly coming off an excellent season. Because the Blues struggled as a team last year, it was largely overlooked how good Binnington was. His 29.74 goals saved above expected was good enough for second in the NHL, and higher than his miraculous 2018-19 campaign, which ended with the Stanley Cup. Binnington has a high ceiling and can steal a game in a manner few goalies can — when he’s at his best. However, Team Canada could be looking for a more steady, predictable goalie to play behind what should be a stacked lineup from top to bottom.
Other options include the last two goalies to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final: Vegas’ Adin Hill and Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner. Neither has been a true No. 1 goalie for an extended period, but both have proven they can get it done on big stages. They’re also both big, positional goalies, which could be an advantage.
Another interesting option is Sam Montembeault in Montreal, who has never played in the postseason but has been excellent for the Canadiens. Montembeault has already stopped a league-high 6.59 GSAx in three starts this season, largely fueled by his 48-save shutout against Toronto on opening night.
Picks: Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington and Sam Montembeault
In contention: Stuart Skinner, Connor Ingram and Cam Talbot
United States
No team in this tournament can match the United States when it comes to goaltending depth, but in the end, only three goalies make the team, and obviously only one will ultimately be between the pipes.
The reigning Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck, leads a stacked group of American goalies. He’s coming off the best statistical season of his career, with a .921 save percentage and 39.35 goals saved above expected. He’s been even better to start the 2024-25 season, allowing only two total goals in his first three starts.
If there’s an argument against Hellebuyck, it’s his recent performance in the playoffs. He gave up 24 goals in the five-game series against Colorado last April, and has posted sub-.900 save percentages in each of the last two postseasons. Even with those struggles, Hellebuyck has been the most consistent goalie in the NHL for several years, so it would be a shock to not see him as one of the top two goalies.
The last time Hellebuyck represented his country was in the 2016 IIHF World Championship, when he won both of his starts as America’s second goalie behind Jimmy Howard.
Jeremey Swayman doesn’t have Hellebuyck’s lengthy track record, but he’s been just as impressive over the last couple years. Swayman also has last year’s playoff performance on his resume, in which he led all goalies with a .933 save percentage. He was sensational in net for Boston, saving nearly a full goal above expected per game in the playoffs.
If you isolate the three biggest games of the season — Game 7 of the first round against Toronto and Games 5 and 6 in the second round facing elimination against Florida — Swayman stopped 84 of 88 shots for a .955 save percentage. He’s a fiery competitor who has proven the ability to elevate his game in the biggest moments. U.S. general manager Bill Guerin will be splitting hairs deciding between these elite netminders, and Swayman’s recent big-game performances could give him the edge. Swayman went 4-3-0 for the U.S. in the 2021 IIHF World Championship, helping the Americans to a bronze-medal finish.
Not to be overlooked in the conversation is Dallas’ Jake Oettinger. Swayman and Oettinger are both 25 years old, drafted in 2017, but Oettinger has racked up 59 more NHL starts as he’s established himself as a workhorse for the Stars. Last season was a bit of a down year for the Lakeville, Minn., native, but he was solid in the playoffs and is off to a 2-0-0 start in 2024-25. His calm, calculated approach could be a good fit behind what should be a talented American lineup.
Those are the clear-cut top three for the U.S., but there are several other goalies who could force their names into the conversation with great play between now and Dec. 2.
Joey Daccord is coming off a breakout season in Seattle in which he posted a .916 save percentage in 46 starts. He’s splitting games with Philipp Grubauer for the Kraken, so he may not get the workload to prove himself in time for roster selection.
Charlie Lindgren is in a very similar situation in Washington, coming off a career year and projected to split starts with Logan Thompson. Joseph Woll is another talented young U.S. netminder, but he’s been out with a lower-body injury to start the season in Toronto.
Picks: Connor Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger
In contention: Joey Daccord, Charlie Lindgren and Joseph Woll
Sweden
Sweden has a long history of excellence in net, and this squad will be no different. The Swedes are led by two clear stars in the crease, with the biggest question being which of the two will get the majority of the starts. Jacob Markström and Linus Ullmark are both top-tier goalies, and are both on new teams for the 2024-25 season. How they adapt to their new surroundings and perform between now and December will determine who begins the 4 Nations Face-Off as the starter.
Markström had a strong 2023-24 season, but was largely overlooked because Calgary’s defensive struggles hurt his base statistics. On the surface, his .905 save percentage is solid but not great, but when you factor in the difficulty of the shots Markstrom faced, his stats look a lot more impressive. He led all goalies with a .857 save percentage on high-danger shots, and finished third in goals saved above expected (28.93) behind only Hellebuyck and Binnington.
Now playing behind a Devils team with expectations, Markstrom has the opportunity to re-establish himself as one of the NHL’s best. His rare combination of size and athleticism make him one of the toughest to beat when he’s on his game.
Ullmark also switched teams this offseason, but is entering a very different situation. After three impressive seasons in Boston (including a Vezina-trophy winning 2022-23), Ullmark was traded to Ottawa, where he signed a four-year contract extension. Expectations are high for the Senators, who are currently riding a seven-year playoff drought. If Ullmark can help that young squad take the next step toward postseason contention, it would go a long way toward solidifying himself as the top Swedish option in net. He’s off to a nice start with a .914 save percentage through two games.
After those two, things get interesting for the Swedish team. The third goalie may not suit up for a single game in the tournament, which could impact GM Anders Lundberg’s decision.
Sweden has several quality NHL options, such as Minnesota’s Filip Gustavsson, Philadelphia’s Samuel Ersson and Chicago’s Arvid Söderblom, who had an excellent season debut on Friday.
But the best option for Sweden’s third goalie may be youngster Jesper Wallstedt. The 21-year-old is one of the best goaltending prospects in the world, and is likely the country’s future in net. While he is opening the season in the American Hockey League and isn’t as established as the options above, it could be wise for Sweden to give Wallstedt the experience to continue grooming him as their future starter. He has already represented the country plenty of times, but taking part in this best-on-best tournament could provide value – even if only from the bench.
Picks: Jacob Markström, Linus Ullmark and Jesper Wallstedt
In contention: Filip Gustavsson, Samuel Ersson and Arvid Söderblom
Finland
Of the four teams in this tournament, the Finnish crease may be the simplest to predict. As mentioned earlier, Saros is the clear No. 1, and Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen should be an easy choice for the backup spot.
Since 2019, only Hellebuyck has started more NHL games and made more saves than Saros. He’s a proven workhorse goalie who has shown the ability to put up eye-popping numbers, even without an elite team in front of him. In 2022-23, Saros stopped 45.49 goals above expected, the third-best single season since Evolving-Hockey began keeping the metric in 2007. The Fins enter this tournament as underdogs, but if there’s a goalie who can help them steal the show, it’s Saros.
Luukkonen is an excellent backup option. He took a major step in his development last season, starting a career-high 51 games for the Sabres. The 25-year-old showed he has what it takes physically and mentally to handle a true starter’s workload, and posted statistics well above the league average while doing it.
It is interesting how different the two styles of these Finnish goalies are. Saros is undersized, relying on quickness and athleticism. Luukkonen is a monster in net at 6-foot-5, 217 pounds, and is more of a cerebral goalie who relies on positioning.
Behind those two, it’s pretty wide open for Finland’s third goalie spot. Joonas Korpisalo, who is backing up Swayman in Boston, is the most established of the group. He is coming off a poor season in Ottawa and isn’t off to the best start as a Bruin, but does have more than 250 starts in the NHL.
If Finland GM Jere Lehtinen prefers a steady, veteran presence as his third goalie, Korpisalo is the choice. If he chooses to give a younger goalie the experience, Colorado’s Justus Annunen is a good option. The 24-year-old started 12 games for the Avalanche last season and had the highest save percentage of any goalie in the league with at least 10 games.
Other options for Finland include Kevin Lankinen, who backed up Saros for the last two seasons in Nashville before signing with Vancouver this summer, and Kaapo Kähkönen, who was recently claimed by Colorado as a third goalie.
Picks: Juuse Saros, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Justus Annunen
In contention: Joonas Korpisalo, Kevin Lankinen and Kaapo Kähkönen
(Photo of Sam Montembeault: Minas Panagiotakis/ Getty Images)
