NFL Week 6 was a welcome wake-up from our collective NFL survivor nightmare. We finally saw wins go in the direction the signs pointed. It may not have been pretty every time (looking at you, Nick Sirianni), but we just hope you were still alive in your pool to enjoy it.
Now we head into Week 7 with a few opportunities that, on paper, seem fairly safe for survivor picks. If we’ve learned anything this season, it’s to trust no team and no one, but if you made it this far, you might have reached more predictable waters.
So, for at least one more week, our NFL survivor columnists Renee Miller and Adam Gretz are sharing their overall strategy, chalk picks and contrarian picks. Next week, we’ll be pivoting to more targeted strategies based on your questions, so stay tuned for a mailbag update.
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NFL Week 7 survivor strategy
The team with the highest pick percentage each week is eliminated from our analysis and picks for the following week. That means the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles are not available. However, we know that not all of you picked them, so we will try to include endorsements (or not) in this section.
Adam: Week 6 was a pretty safe week, with pretty much every top favorite and every top pick winning. All of the 13 most popular survivor picks in Week 6 won their games, and 14 of the top 15 teams won. So there’s a pretty good chance that, if your league was still going in Week 6, everybody made it through to Week 7 to keep it going for at least one more week. Unless somebody did something insane, like pick the New England Patriots to beat the Houston Texans or something similar.
My strategy for the week remains unchanged from the past couple — I am not overly concerned about future value because most leagues are probably down to just a handful of people at this point (just based on averages and which teams were upset in earlier weeks) and there are a couple of really good favorites this week.
If you want to pick against the Carolina Panthers, the Washington Commanders present a big opportunity because Jayden Daniels should have a day against that defense. If you saved Cincinnati (they are not available to us this week because they were the most popular pick in Week 1), they should be a good bet against a miserable Cleveland Browns team, and the same is true with Philadelphia (last week’s most popular pick) against the New York Giants. As for myself? I am taking one of the top favorites this week.
Renee: Week 6 finally played by the rules without any major upsets. This is also the time of the season when we have an accurate impression of teams’ offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses. There are a few games I’m still not comfortable picking — Houston at Green Bay and Atlanta vs. Seattle come to mind — but as Adam notes, there are some good ones.
I’m most comfortable picking against Carolina again this week. Washington is coming off a one-score loss to Baltimore — a perfectly respectable showing. The Bills could have made more of a statement on Monday Night Football, but their win is enough to put them on top of the AFC East, and next weekend’s matchup with the Tennessee Titans should be easy enough to keep them there. Cincinnati should romp over a Browns team that is unwilling to make any changes, even with Nick Chubb likely back in action.
As we’ve been preaching, you don’t need to do anything crazy this week. Keep your head above water by choosing the path of least resistance still available to you. That means the biggest favorites, home teams, good offenses vs. bad defenses. Keep it simple!
Teams used: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Seattle, Philadelphia
Week 7 chalk picks
The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 7 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread from BetMGM for each of their games as of Oct. 15.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
 Commanders |
vs. Panthers
|
39.08%
|
-7.5
|
 Bills |
vs. Titans
|
31.20%
|
-9
|
 Bengals |
vs. Browns
|
7.28%
|
-6.5
|
 Rams |
vs. Raiders
|
4.61%
|
-7
|
 Eagles |
vs. Giants
|
3.27%
|
-3
|
Adam: Buffalo over Tennessee
This might be one of the most lopsided quarterback matchups on the NFL schedule this week, and that alone is enough to make me want to go with Buffalo.
Josh Allen might be the best player in football right now and has cut down on the one thing that you could point to as a flaw in recent seasons — turnovers. He has not thrown a single interception in six games and is playing top-tier, elite football. Even if the Bills roster has some flaws and question marks, Allen is playing at a level that can mask an awful lot of them.
They are also playing at home this week against a Tennessee team that has mostly looked incompetent on offense, with a quarterback — Will Levis — who is not only prone to game-changing mistakes but also has not been particularly effective. He didn’t even crack the 100-yard passing mark this past Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. Add in the fact that this game is actually in Buffalo, and the Bills are a very, very valid touchdown favorite. If you kept the Bills, this is the week to use them.
Renee: Washington over Carolina
There’s nothing sneaky going on here. It’s just the biggest mismatch of the week in just about every stat you could consult. Carolina’s defense is non-existent, allowing opponents the most points, most touchdowns, and my favorite, a league-low in yards per point (11.2). Meanwhile, Washington is tied with Tampa Bay for the highest-scoring team in the league (29.7 points per game) and averages 0.481 points per play (third-best mark in the league). Jayden Daniels has the second-most rushing yards (322) and rushing touchdowns (four) while ranking third in QB fantasy points this season.
The game is in Washington, and the Commanders are 7.5-point favorites, making this the ideal week to use them if you can. The upcoming schedule isn’t terrible, but they likely won’t see these odds again soon. Don’t overthink it. Washington is legit, even elite, right now.
Week 7 contrarian picks
Adam: Los Angeles Rams over Las Vegas Raiders
There are a lot of reasons to not like the Rams right now. The injury situation at wide receiver. The defense has not been particularly good. But this is one of those situations where I am picking against a team as opposed to picking a team. And I am picking against the Raiders because other than Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby, there is just not a lot here to be excited about. They looked awful on Sunday against Pittsburgh, and after a promising opening drive, Aidan O’Connell could not do a single thing in the passing game. With the Davante Adams trade happening and the Raiders in a clear seller mode, Vegas just has a miserable vibe right now. The Rams have the better head coach, the better quarterback and the better chance to win on Sunday.
Renee: New England Patriots over Jacksonville Jaguars
In this toilet bowl, someone has to come out on top. I don’t usually go so hard against the oddsmakers (Jaguars are -5.5), but I believe one of these teams is on the road to improvement, and it isn’t Jacksonville. Drake Maye’s debut for the Patriots in Week 6 was largely a success despite losing to Houston by a wide margin. He threw two picks but also 243 yards and three touchdowns with 38 rushing yards. He spread the ball around, completing passes to eight different players. He gave the Patriots something to rally around and build upon.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars lost in London last week and will have to wait for their upcoming game amidst calls to fire head coach Doug Pederson. Trevor Lawrence is making ownership look foolish for the massive contract they gave him, throwing for 300-plus yards just once this season despite the appreciable talent around him. He’s thrown three interceptions (to seven TDs) in the last four games. I see a demoralized offense that could easily phone it in the rest of the way.
The real mismatch with Jacksonville comes from its defense, though. Jacksonville ranks 31st in points allowed and offensive touchdowns allowed to their opponents. Only Carolina is worse. I don’t think it’s necessary to take this risk, but if you’ve somehow left yourself none of the big favorites, betting against Jacksonville isn’t a terrible way to go.
(Photo of Josh Allen: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
