No shortage of incredible moments and games have filled the stadiums and television sets halfway through the college football season. And with all eyes on the College Football Playoff, more is on the way.
Eight unbeaten power-conference teams remain and none are scheduled to play one another. But anyone who watches this sport knows the losses will pile up. There’s no way Oregon, Penn State and Indiana remain unbeaten through the Big Ten season. It’s unlikely both BYU and Iowa State do the same in the Big 12 or that Miami and Pittsburgh meet in the ACC title game unblemished. Even top-ranked Texas could go down this week against Georgia.
It would surprise no one if a few of those teams fell out of the CFP race by mid-November. Likewise, there are 17 one-loss power-conference teams more than capable of vaulting into the CFP discussion. Even a few two-loss teams aren’t completely out of the picture for an at-large bid.
Let’s examine how the one-loss and two-loss power-conference teams stack up in the CFP discussion based on their schedules and the all-important eye test. Some are still well-positioned to win their conference or pick up an at-large spot. Others can’t afford another loss. Here’s how they break down.
Well-positioned
1. Ohio State (5-1) — No one-loss team is in a better position for the postseason than Ohio State, which lost a 32-31 showdown at Oregon last Saturday. The Buckeyes have four of their final six at home, including Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan. A trip to unbeaten Penn State on Nov. 2 will determine whether the Buckeyes earn a spot in the Big Ten title game. A loss there still wouldn’t prevent Ohio State from hosting a first-round CFP game. Key game: Nov. 2 at Penn State.
2. Clemson (5-1) — There is a clear path to the CFP for the Tigers, whether that’s as the ACC champion or as an at-large squad. Their five power-conference opponents have a 20-10 record, which is the second-easiest among the ACC one-loss squads. But there are a few potential roadblocks ahead, especially at unbeaten Pittsburgh on Nov. 16 and the season finale against rival South Carolina. Key game: Nov. 16 at Pittsburgh.
3. Georgia (5-1) — Based on the schedule and eye test, Georgia is the only team capable of losing three regular-season games and still picking up an at-large spot. The Bulldogs have one of the toughest SEC schedules and can afford to shrug off their loss at Alabama. They travel to Texas this week, then play at Ole Miss on Nov. 9 and host Tennessee on Nov. 16. In addition, they have rivalry games against Florida and Georgia Tech. Key game: Nov. 16 vs. Tennessee.
4. Texas A&M (5-1) — The Aggies clearly won the SEC’s schedule lottery. Only two teams on their schedule have winning records and both games are at Kyle Field — but either could disrupt their path to the Playoff. On Oct. 26, LSU comes to College Station in a possible CFP elimination game. To end the season, the Aggies face No. 1 Texas for the first time since 2011. There’s an outside shot that could mark the first of two meetings between the ancient foes. Key game: Oct. 26 vs. LSU.
5. Tennessee (5-1) — A five-point loss at Arkansas took away the Vols’ mulligan, which was critical for Tennessee to pick up a CFP berth. Now, the Vols need to slay either Alabama this week at home or Georgia in Athens on Nov. 16 to make a solid argument for inclusion. That said, a home game against Kentucky and a trip to Vanderbilt at season’s end also have potential for hiccups. Key game: Oct. 19 vs. Alabama.
6. Alabama (5-1) — The season’s most stunning result took place on Oct. 5 when Vanderbilt upset the Tide in Nashville. It turned what seemed like a waltz to the CFP into a more difficult dance for Alabama. This week they reignite the “Third Saturday in October” rivalry at Tennessee, face one-loss teams Missouri and LSU with a bye in the middle and close the year with a trip to Oklahoma and home against Auburn. Key game: Oct. 19 at Tennessee.
7. LSU (5-1) — The Tigers are balancing atop a high wire, but so far they have survived. The win against South Carolina was nothing short of lucky, while the perseverance against Ole Miss kept CFP hopes alive. That doesn’t mean the schedule lightens up with six SEC games remaining. Road trips to Arkansas and Texas A&M are never easy. On Nov. 9, LSU welcomes Alabama to Tiger Stadium, and the Tigers finish with games against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Key game: Oct. 26 at Texas A&M.
8. Notre Dame (5-1) — The Irish have the strangest schedule in this category. They play three neutral-site contests and only one is against a power-conference team (Georgia Tech at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium). The other two are against unbeaten teams (Navy at MetLife Stadium and Army at Yankee Stadium). Notre Dame also plays two home games and just one road contest, but it’s at USC. Win out and they’re in. Lose, and it’s bowl season. Key game: Nov. 30 at USC.
Have something to prove
9. Missouri (5-1) — After entering the season with hype and acclaim, the Tigers appeared lethargic with close wins against Vanderbilt and Boston College. Then in a showdown with Texas A&M, Mizzou flopped 41-7. Based on that devasting defeat, another loss probably puts the Tigers on the outside looking in. Key game: Oct. 26 at Alabama.
10. Illinois (5-1) — On paper, Illinois’ CFP hopes come down to its next two games. The Illini host Michigan this week, then travel to Oregon. Two wins in those would place Illinois in the Big Ten championship discussion. One loss wouldn’t eliminate them, but the Illini would need to win out, and the program often stumbles when it’s in favorite mode. Key game: Oct. 19 vs. Michigan.
11. SMU (5-1) — Moving up to the ACC hasn’t been a problem for the Mustangs, whose only loss came to unbeaten BYU (18-15). SMU beat ACC preseason favorite Florida State 42-16 and downed Louisville 34-27. There’s a chance the Mustangs could ride into serious CFP contention, especially if they get past Duke and Pittsburgh in a two-week stretch. Key game: Oct. 26 at Duke.
12. Duke (5-1) — Losing its coach (Mike Elko to Texas A&M) and quarterback (Riley Leonard to Notre Dame) hasn’t hurt Duke, which has lost only to Georgia Tech. Of the one-loss teams playing six power-conference foes, Duke has the most advantageous path based on win-loss record. Key game: Oct. 26 vs. SMU.
13. Kansas State (5-1) — It’s not a sin to lose on the road to an unbeaten team (BYU), but getting thrashed 38-9 will make it tough for the Wildcats with the selection committee as an at-large team. However, K-State boasts one of the easier schedules until late November when it faces Arizona State, Cincinnati and Iowa State in succession. Key game: Nov. 16 vs. Arizona State.
14. Arizona State (5-1) — No matter what happens the rest of the season, the Sun Devils have put together a remarkable turnaround from last year’s 3-9 campaign. Arizona State is balanced on offense and defense, which adapts well to any opponent. Beating Utah last week puts the CFP on the table for the Sun Devils, who travel to Cincinnati this week. Key game: Nov. 16 at Kansas State.
15. Texas Tech (5-1) — A three-touchdown loss at Washington State will make the case difficult that the Red Raiders deserve CFP consideration. Plus, as the nation’s No. 122 defense, it’s doubtful Texas Tech will wind up in the room anyway. But Tech has a favorable schedule and its offense makes it entertaining. Key game: Nov. 2 at Iowa State.
16. Nebraska (5-1) — The Huskers look the part of a contender, but their second-half schedule won’t cooperate with that lofty consideration. They face four of their six opponents on the road, including back-to-back stops at unbeatens Indiana and Ohio State. They also get a trip to USC, host Wisconsin and close out at Iowa. Key game: Oct. 19 at Indiana.
17. Syracuse (5-1) — The Orange were a last-second field goal from sitting unbeaten entering their second idle week. They have some impressive wins, such as topping solid G5 teams UNLV and Ohio. But Syracuse’s second-half schedule is semi-daunting, opening up and closing against unbeaten teams Pittsburgh and Miami, respectively. Key game: Oct. 24 at Pittsburgh.
Two-loss teams with a (faint) heartbeat
18. Ole Miss (5-2) — There’s heartburn, and then there’s the Rebels’ season. With losses in the final seconds (Kentucky) or overtime (LSU), Ole Miss has its CFP hopes on life support. But it’s not over. The Rebels will need to hold serve against Oklahoma and Arkansas and find a way to upset Georgia. If that happens, they’ll be in the conversation. Key game: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia.
19. Iowa (4-2) — The schedule couldn’t set up better for the Hawkeyes, whose running game is much improved. Their three road opponents are 7-11 this year, and they play rivals Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska at home. Iowa’s losses came to Iowa State (20-19) and at Ohio State (35-7), and it needs both teams to keep winning. Key game: Nov. 2 vs. Wisconsin.
20. Arkansas (4-2) — The Hogs have to be kicking themselves over a double-overtime loss to Oklahoma State. But their upset against Tennessee evened the score. There are plenty of challenges ahead with four ranked opponents, including No. 1 Texas. But this team is physical and resilient and will give everyone a tough out. Key game: Oct. 19 vs. LSU.
21. Colorado (4-2) — Look who ended up on this list! With strides on defense and some obvious explosiveness in the passing game with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and all-everything performer Travis Hunter, Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes are just two wins shy of bowl eligibility. The next six opponents are a combined 20-16 and the Big 12 is wide open. Key game: Nov. 9 at Texas Tech.
22. Oklahoma (4-2) — The SEC laid the schedule hammer on the Sooners. Every remaining foe has the potential to beat them with two ranked in the top 10 and two others in the top 20. It looks daunting in the aggregate, but road trips to Ole Miss and Missouri sandwich around a game with Maine, then a bye follows Mizzou before hosting Alabama and traveling to LSU. Key game: Oct. 26 at Ole Miss.
Two-loss Code Red
23. Wisconsin (4-2) — Just as the Badgers have improved, the schedule continues to ramp up. Over five weeks, Wisconsin hosts Penn State, travels to Iowa, hosts Oregon and flies to Nebraska. Remove either Penn State or Oregon, and the Badgers have a faint heartbeat. Key game: Nov. 2 at Iowa.
24. Michigan (4-2) — The Wolverines’ final six opponents are a combined 29-7. They face Illinois, Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State plus in-state rival Michigan State. Michigan already is marked by foes as the defending national champion. But the schedule is brutal. Key game: Oct. 19 at Illinois.
25. Utah (4-2) — A team that sat at No. 10 just three weeks ago has dropped out of the rankings with losses to Arizona and Arizona State. With quarterback Cam Rising out for the season, the Utes seek focus before facing BYU, Colorado and Iowa State consecutively in November. Key game: Nov. 9 vs. BYU.
26. Boston College (4-2) — There’s not a team on the schedule that the Eagles can’t beat. There’s also not a team left that can’t beat them, either. The home finale against Pittsburgh bears watching, especially if the Panthers remain in CFP contention. Key game: Nov. 9 vs. Syracuse.
27. Cincinnati (4-2) — Among contenders, the Bearcats have the Big 12’s toughest schedule with opponents compiling a 26-10 overall record. They’ll know quickly if their CFP hopes are flatline or faint in the next two weeks against Arizona State and Colorado. Key game: Oct. 19 vs. Arizona State.
28. Rutgers (4-2) — No team with one or two losses has an easier schedule, yet losing 42-7 at home to Wisconsin provides little hope that the Scarlet Knights are capable of winning out. Key game: Oct. 25 at USC.
29. Vanderbilt (4-2) — The Commodores provided the shocker of the season over Alabama and own quality wins against Virginia Tech and Kentucky. They also face three top-10 teams in Texas, LSU and Tennessee ahead. Key game: Oct. 26 vs. Texas.
30. Virginia (4-2) — If nothing else, the Cavaliers’ final six games are intriguing. They host ancient foe North Carolina and travel to Virginia Tech while picking up four other games against teams with a combined 21-3 record. Key game: Oct. 19 vs. Clemson.
31. Louisville (4-2) — The Cardinals have to play Miami, Clemson and Pittsburgh along with in-state rival Kentucky over their final six games. If they sweep that quartet, we’ll rename them the Louisville Lazarus Project. Key game: Oct. 19 vs. Miami.
32. Georgia Tech (5-2) — The Ramblin’ Wreck play Notre Dame this weekend, finish at Georgia and meet Miami in the middle of their final five games. Bowl eligibility is probably the correct focus for the Yellow Jackets. Key game: Oct. 26 vs. Virginia Tech.
(Top photos of Phil Mafah, Dylan Edwards: Jim Dedmon, Christopher Hanewinckel / Imagn Images)
