Notre Dame at midseason: Can Irish take a 10-game winning streak into Playoff?

16 October 2024Last Update :
Notre Dame at midseason: Can Irish take a 10-game winning streak into Playoff?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame is about where Marcus Freeman wants after six games, even if the path to get to midseason hasn’t always made the Irish look like they know where they’re going. Or in control of where they’re headed.

Notre Dame may be the only College Football Playoff contender booed twice at home even though they’ve also beaten four Power 4 opponents by an average of more than four touchdowns. The Irish are peaking on defense while also playing through a crisis, ranked among the top 10 in most statistical categories while also scrambling to replace three starters lost for the season, including All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison. The Irish are the only program in the country with a road win over a current top 15 opponent. They’re also the only CFP contender to lose to a MAC school.

Freeman was asked about the six-game path Notre Dame’s offense has traveled, from the guts spilled at Texas A&M to the meltdown against Northern Illinois to last weekend’s aerial assault of Stanford. The Irish have been a little bit of everything this season, probably too many things, too often.

“Where we want to be after six games? Yeah, but not where I want to be after seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, because we’re improving,” Freeman said. “And that’s what you see from Week 1 to Week 6. There’s improvement, but there’s another level. There is. There’s more, and I believe we’ll get it, because they’ll put the work in that it takes.”

At mid-October, No. 12 Notre Dame (5-1) feels about where it wants to be. Even if the Irish haven’t been thrilled about how they got here.

Here’s a deeper look at who Notre Dame is at midseason.

Biggest Surprise

Maybe this shouldn’t be a surprise at all considering offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock sounded the alarm in preseason that Notre Dame wouldn’t be a finished product on opening night in College Station. It’s just that the work required to get Notre Dame’s offense in a good space has been more dramatic than expected. That’s the real shock, the whipsaw nature of Notre Dame’s offense. It’s been a variety pack, not always in a good way.

The restraint showed at Texas A&M, when Riley Leonard didn’t cut the passing game loose, turned out to be both situationally astute and ominously predictive. Leonard didn’t throw his first touchdown pass until his 92nd pass attempt of the season when Beaux Collins got loose just before halftime against Miami (Ohio). Notre Dame’s major investment didn’t crack the top 100 list of quarterbacks in pass efficiency until the end of September … when he ranked No. 100.

But Leonard the runner has been better than advertised, leading the team in carries and rushing touchdowns. He’s on pace to break Brandon Wimbush’s quarterback record for rushing touchdowns in a season (14). He’s threatening Tony Rice’s single-season rushing yardage record for a quarterback (884). It’s also worth wondering if either of those records would be good things to break.

After Leonard posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing games against Purdue and Miami, Notre Dame promoted it as a first since Carlyle Holiday did it in 2001. Notre Dame fired Bob Davie that season and Holiday eventually moved to wide receiver.

Biggest Omen

It’s a fool’s errand to definitively assign blame for individual injuries.

But when starting left tackle Charles Jagusah went down for the season with a chest/shoulder injury less than a week into training camp it set off a chain reaction of injuries that haven’t let up. Some have been endemic to the violence of football, like Ashton Craig getting rolled up from behind at Purdue or Josh Burnham suffering an ankle sprain against Northern Illinois. These happen every year at every program. Others require more introspection, from Jagusah’s upper body giving out after barely a half-dozen, light-contact practices to Morrison’s season-ending hip injury.

This doesn’t get to the missed time from Gabe Rubio (foot), Jordan Faison (ankle), Jason Onye (personal reasons), Billy Schrauth (ankle), Christian Gray (shoulder), Cooper Flanagan (ankle), Mitch Jeter (groin), Jordan Botelho (ACL) and Boubacar Traore (ACL). Leonard’s reported labrum injury could be thrown onto the pile, too.

If Notre Dame keeps up its injury pace through November, it may not have a functional team for the postseason.

No investment in sports science or strength training can make a football team immune to injury. Yet, Freeman celebrated performance coach Loren Landow in August to keep the Irish game-ready heading to College Station. Can Notre Dame arrest this negative momentum?

Biggest Breakout Stories

Unfortunately for Notre Dame, only one of this season’s two breakout stories is still being told.

Running back Jeremiyah Love went from athletic curiosity as a freshman to full-blown star as a sophomore. He needs a lot of touches — Freeman said himself in the preseason that it doesn’t take a “rocket scientist” to understand that. It’s just not clear how Notre Dame will feed Love, who’s tied for 20th nationally with 29 missed tackles forced, per Pro Football Focus. He needs more touches than 75 through six games.

Love ranks only No. 60 nationally in carries and rushing yards. He’s 36th in yards per carry. But he feels like he’s been more productive than all those rankings, right?

Traore was the other breakout player of the first half, although the defensive end’s season ended after six snaps against Louisville. Traore’s eight quarterback pressures this season trail only Howard Cross (13) and Rylie Mills (12) for Notre Dame. The sophomore was turning into a future star in real time every Saturday. Now he’s shelved until next year.

Five (necessary) second-half risers

1. Bryce Young: There’s a need at defensive end. There’s Pro Football Hall of Fame DNA waiting to fill it in the son of Bryant Young. “We knew he was a special player when he first got here, but he is developing faster, probably, than we all thought,” Freeman said. “Physically ahead of most people his age. He plays the game with an effort that is uncommon at times.” Notre Dame has tried to be measured with Young through six games. Now it’s time to go for it.

2. Leonard Moore: When Christian Gray missed the Louisville game with shoulder soreness, Moore got his first start and finished one off the defensive team lead in snaps played with 76. It’s hard to see him coming off the field from here with Morrison done. Collins compared Moore to former Clemson teammate Nate Wiggins, a first-round pick of the Baltimore Ravens. The biggest reason Jaden Mickey is no longer on the roster might be how much the staff likes Moore.

3. Riley Leonard: One great game doesn’t mean Leonard will start ripping them off week after week. But, it at least means there’s more in the quarterback’s bag than what he showed in September. “I loved the confidence that he played with on Saturday,” Denbrock said. “I thought he let himself be the player that he can be. Hopefully, maybe, we’ve kind of broken through a little bit and we’re ready to bust this thing loose.”

4. Billy Schrauth: The junior might be the most physically gifted of Notre Dame’s offensive linemen, even if he’s still developing. For the Irish to keep the run game going and win in short-yardage against better teams, it needs Schrauth back from the ankle sprain suffered at Purdue. After five weeks to heal, can Schrauth get back into the lineup? Per PFF, Schrauth is the best of Notre Dame’s opening day starters on the line.

5. Mitchell Evans: Evans has been a shell of himself in the pass game since coming back from the ACL injury suffered almost exactly a year ago. That’s not a criticism as much as an acknowledgement the tight end just needed the full year to recover. If Evans can flash the ability he showed in dominating Duke and Ohio State last season, it could take the offense to another level.

Predicted Final Record

Considering Freeman has never won more than five games in a row, asking Notre Dame’s head coach to manage a 10-game win streak into the Playoff feels like a big ask. And that’s without factoring in the rash of injuries that is adding up. But, Notre Dame will still be favored in every game the rest of the season, heavily in each of the next five before a potential toss-up at USC. If what the offense showed against Stanford can be repackaged, even in bits and pieces, Notre Dame should have enough to run the table from here. Even if the defense is taking on water through injuries, it’s still better than any offense on the remaining schedule by a wide margin. Two games against option teams will be a pain to handle, but the Irish are experienced enough in the front seven to navigate it.

Final record: 11-1

 (Photo of Marcus Freeman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)