Vikings-49ers preview, predictions: How will Sam Darnold look against his former team?

There will be no easing into things Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Anxiety will be high. Energy should be oozing. Not every year do you get to ride some momentum into a home opener against one of the best teams in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers–Minnesota Vikings matchup in Week 2 is fascinating for many reasons, not the least of which is the offense-defense matchup between Kyle Shanahan and Brian Flores. As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Sam Darnold in his first major test against his former team. This is the low-hanging fruit, obviously, but it’ll be fascinating. Darnold shined in his Vikings debut last week, performing in the face of serious internal pressure. Sunday stands as an entirely different test. Multiple times Monday night, the 49ers defense used deception to keep New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers off-balance. The 49ers defenders would roam across the field with receivers, indicating man coverage, then drop into zones, confusing Rodgers and leading to sacks. Darnold is at his best when he’s on time in clean pockets and on the move with clear answers. Putting Darnold in these circumstances will be exponentially harder than it was in Week 1. But if head coach Kevin O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips can do it, they’ll likely be the talk of the league come Monday.

Krawczynski: This new-look Vikings defensive line. They made a great first impression against the New York Giants, and they’ll need to be even better to throw Brock Purdy and the Niners offense out of rhythm. This group might not have a Micah Parsons or a T.J. Watt or even a Danielle Hunter, but its depth and versatility shined in the Meadowlands. Andrew Van Ginkel, Patrick Jones II and Jonathan Greenard looked the part, and Dallas Turner showed signs of becoming that household name down the line. They were so effective that Flores did not have to blitz much to create pressure on Daniel Jones. Facing a Niners offense that has Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle in the passing game makes it imperative for the front to get home without a ton of help.

Welcome to the NFL, Dallas Turner!

The @vikings rookie gets his first-career sack 💪

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Biggest concerns

Lewis: Ed Ingram’s blocking. Fifty NFL guards played 50 snaps or more in Week 1. None allowed more pressures per snap than Ingram, according to Pro Football Focus, and it was not remotely close. Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II poses a unique test, but Ingram’s inability to pass protect has not been an anomaly. Ingram has allowed 102 pressures since 2022, the most among all active players. Last year, the Vikings coaching staff constructed an impressive plan to limit the 49ers pass rush. Week 7 was the only game last season in which San Francisco did not record a sack. The 49ers no longer have Arik Armstead, but Maliek Collins replaced him. Paired with Javon Hargrave, they’ll pose a test for the Vikings interior and, specifically, Ingram.

Krawczynski: Everything. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the league, and they looked primed and ready for a deep playoff run with their dominant Week 1 win over the Jets. They don’t just beat you; they pummel you. The difference in weight class between the Giants and Niners could not be more pronounced. How will the Vikings acclimate to playing a well-coached team that specializes in imposing its will on an opponent? Offense, defense, running, throwing: San Francisco can do all of it. It’ll be an enormous test for a Vikings team that looked better than expected in Week 1.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Justin Jefferson versus the 49ers cornerbacks. Last week, San Francisco mostly locked its cornerbacks into sides. Charvarius Ward, whom O’Connell praised earlier this week, was stationed on the left side of the line of scrimmage, and Deommodore Lenoir was situated on the right. Lenoir mostly traveled with elite Jets wideout Garrett Wilson, and against three-receiver sets, Lenoir moved to the slot and Isaac Yiadom lined up on the right. The 49ers barely double-teamed Wilson, which raises a question: Will they even double Jefferson? Or might they deploy a different approach? Covering with one man — even if it’s the well-respected Ward — would certainly be a choice.

Krawczynski: Vikings tackles versus Nick Bosa. Strength versus strength. Bosa lines up a lot at left defensive end, meaning right tackle Brian O’Neill will see plenty of him Sunday. But the Niners will move him to the other side as well, where Christian Darrisaw will be waiting for him. The Vikings offensive line held up well against the Giants’ front, which was a concern heading into Week 1. Bosa is as relentless as they come, and Darrisaw and O’Neill will have to find ways to keep Darnold upright and give him time to make plays down the field. Darnold might need even more time if Jordan Addison is not able to go, taking away one of their best downfield threats.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: The impact this game could have on the perception of O’Connell. Rarely is he discussed in the same category as play callers like Shanahan and Sean McVay. Even Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel, who has the same record as O’Connell through 35 regular-season games, garners major attention for his offensive designs. Some of this, of course, is a byproduct of O’Connell’s experience. This is only his third season as an NFL head coach. But if he beats Shanahan for the second year in a row and the Vikings begin 2-0, analysts will turn more attention to the detail and intentionality behind the infrastructure he has created in Minnesota, on and off the field.

Krawczynski: The energy in the building Sunday. Vikings fans seemed a little nervous heading into this season. After J.J. McCarthy’s injury, could Darnold hold up for an entire season and play well enough to keep the Vikings in the playoff hunt? Who are these new guys on defense, and what do they bring to the table? A loss in New York would have made for a pretty dour home opener. But given the dominant victory, even if it came against a hapless team, there should be a palpable buzz at U.S. Bank Stadium for this litmus test against one of the best teams in the league. If the Vikings can make some good things happen early, they could ride that wave and make this a dogfight.

Schematic matchup to keep in mind

The Vikings converted eight of 13 third downs in last year’s matchup with the 49ers. Three of those came on third-and-long situations. San Francisco was susceptible to third-down attempts throughout last season, ranking 24th in conversions allowed. Those struggles continued in Week 1, as the Jets completed 60 percent of their third-down opportunities and four third-and-longs. The Vikings likely do not want Darnold in these situations, and Aaron Jones, who looked exceptional in Week 1, could help with that. But if those situations arise, they might not be as tough as you’d typically expect.

Predictions

Lewis: 49ers 21, Vikings 17. Unless the Vikings turn the ball over early again, I expect this to be a doozy. Establish an early lead and maybe Minnesota can squeak this out. Potentially not having Addison is the deciding factor for me. He was so good in Week 1, and the receivers behind him on the depth chart are too unproven as separators.

Krawczynski: 49ers 26, Vikings 20. It was hard not to like so much of what the Vikings put on display in Week 1. But the Giants are really, really bad, and the Niners are really, really good. Darnold will have to be incredibly precise, and this San Francisco defense is built to pressure him into some turnovers.

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