To paraphrase my spiritual guide, Olivia Rodrigo: Tryin’ to call ’em correct/It’s a bad idea, yes?
Indeed, my continued quest to take back the sanctity of forecasting and the good name of the hot take continues with another preseason edition of 15 increasingly bold predictions. Last year, I posted a 4-7-3-1 record (correct predictions, incorrect predictions, spiritually correct but factually incorrect predictions and unknowable Drake prediction). I missed on some topics I thought were obvious, such as the fate of the Raptors-Knicks lawsuit and the team’s defence. I nailed some things I thought were far from sure things, like Scottie Barnes’ triple-double tally and OG Anunoby getting traded.
We live, we fail to learn. I’m trying this again. As a reminder, these are 15 things I think will happen this season, not predictions I don’t truly believe. The further down you get in the list, the bolder I consider the prediction. So, for example, No. 10 feels less likely to happen than No. 4.
Got it? Hopefully, because this premise is undeniable.
1. The Raptors will win six or fewer of their first 20 games
Let’s break down the Raptors’ first 20 games.
- They play 11 road games, including two four-game road trips. Seven of those eight teams they play on those trips at least made the Play-In Tournament last year.
- They have three games against teams that didn’t qualify for any form of postseason.
- They have seven games against teams that made it to the second round or further.
- They have five sets of back-to-back games.
Woof! The Raptors have had too many injuries and absences to hit the ground running in the regular season. If they are 6-14 after 20 games, consider that a success.
2. Barnes will break his franchise record for triple-doubles in a season
Let’s run it back. This is one of the predictions I got right last year, and I think Barnes surpasses his modest number of four this year.
Another fun fact: A Raptor has recorded a points/assists/rebounds triple-double 38 times in franchise history. The Raptors went 22-1 in the first 23 instances and 7-8 in the last 15. Huh.
3. A Raptors second-round pick or two-way player will emerge as a viable rotation player for the future
The streak will end. After going from developmental leaders to a fallow period, the Raptors will leave this year knowing they can plug a player into the 2025-26 rotation at a team-friendly price.
If I had to pick a player, I’d go with Jamal Shead. I am admittedly a sucker for undersized guards who play tenaciously, and Shead is that. He is going to have to work out his jumper to become a plus rotation player, but he can have an NBA role even without one.
I have faith in players like Shead, which perhaps comes from spending my formative reporting years covering Kyle Lowry. With Davion Mitchell headed toward restricted free agency, Shead doing enough to supplant him on the 2025-26 depth chart is a good bet.
4. The Raptors will trade Bruce Brown but won’t get a first-round pick, causing fans to lose their minds
Brown was the biggest factor in making the salaries work in last year’s Pascal Siakam trade. The Raptors were happy to get him but were hoping to be able to reroute him at some point and get some future assets for him.
Whatever they get back, it won’t be enough to make Raptors fans happy. I would guess maybe a pair of second-rounders and some matching salary, hopefully expiring. It is hard to see Brown playing well enough, whenever he returns from arthroscopic surgery on his knee, on this team. He is a connector, and the Raptors are too young and too short on shooting to benefit from Brown’s skills as superstar-laden teams have in the past.
5. The Raptors will finish in the bottom quarter of the league in defensive rating
The Raptors ranked 27th in this category last year. With Mitchell and Shead in Toronto, they should improve at the point of attack. I’m skeptical this will lead to massive improvements overall.
Ball pressure might help things, but it is just as likely to highlight the importance of backline protection. The Raptors have very little of that behind Jakob Poeltl, which might become problematic (see No. 13). An increased emphasis on offensive rebounding will also chip away at the basics of transition defence. It is reasonable to see if a more aggressive philosophy suits the Raptors, but I think the personnel isn’t quite ready to deliver.
Also, this is the issue most likely to create uncertainty around Darko Rajaković’s job status. I don’t think there will be a fan groundswell to remove him, given the low stakes of this year, but this will nag at the coach.
6. One of Jonathan Mogbo or Ja’Kobe Walter will play more pre-February minutes with Raptors 905 than the Raptors, and Mogbo will leave the year looking like the better prospect
The second part of this is simple: Mogbo turns 23 at the end of the month while Walter is 20. Mogbo was a do-everything-but-shoot big man in college, while Walter filled a smaller role at Baylor. I think there is a world in which Mogbo can post Chris Boucher-light G League numbers — Boucher averaged 27.2 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.1 blocks in his age-26 year with Raptors 905 in 2018-19. Let’s pencil Mogbo in for 18-10-2.
To the second point, it will be tough to find an offensive role for Mogbo with the Raptors. Better to let him work on his jumper in the G League and explore the limits of his game to go for the highest potential ceiling than try to pigeonhole him with the Raptors, even if he would help defensively.
Walter needs to get stronger, which will hurt him in both leagues. We will see some flashes, but the Raptors have so many perimeter options that I don’t think he will get a real chance at NBA minutes until the season’s second half. Starting the season injured isn’t ideal for a rookie, either.
Walter could very well be a key part of the Raptors in the future, but that might not be clear after this season.
7. RJ Barrett’s true shooting percentage of 61.5 percent in 32 games with the Raptors last year will turn out to be more real than not
I don’t think Barrett will reach last year’s heights of scoring efficiency. He shot 39.2 percent from deep as a Raptor last season, and the more careful shot selection that contributed to that number could be sacrificed as the Raptors try to get up more 3s.
I think Barrett meaningfully altered where he gets the majority of his looks, though, cutting out some of the fat of his game. He previously topped out at 53.5 percent, in his second season. If the over/under is 57.5 percent, the halfway mark between his Raptors numbers and his previous career-best mark, I’ll take the over. Barrett’s defence is the skill that will determine his long-term spot with the Raptors, but the offensive progress will remain encouraging.
8. The Raptors will finish in the league’s middle third in offensive rating
Don’t take this possibility for granted. The Orlando Magic haven’t been better than 21st in this category since 2011-12. Dwight Howard, Ryan Anderson, JJ Redick, Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu were on that team. I covered Turkoglu’s introductory news conference as a Raptor two seasons before that. I’m not old. You’re old.
The Raptors ranked 24th in offensive rating last year, although they were a positively competent 19th until March 1, when Barnes suffered a season-ending finger injury. (They were 22nd between the Siakam trade and March 1.) With the New York additions getting more comfortable with the Raptors, Barnes and Gradey Dick hopefully trending toward more efficiency and some added depth, I think this team will score close to average.
9. Raptors 905 will make the final four in the G League
Mogbo. Branden Carlson. DJ Carton. Jahmi’us Ramsey. Some splashes of Walter and Shead. Our friends in Mississauga might be loaded.
This prediction might be wrecked if the Raptors turn down the desperation to win at the NBA level in March, but we’re due for a really good 905 season.
10. Immanuel Quickley will also lead the team in usage percentage
Fun fact: Barnes did not lead the Raptors in usage percentage after the Anunoby trade last year. Barrett (25 percent) did, with Barnes (24) and Quickley (23.1) just behind him. Now, that was helped by Barrett and Quickley playing a few games down the stretch without the injured Barnes, but this was close to an egalitarian offence.
I think Quickley ends up with the highest usage percentage this year. The Raptors need to attempt more 3s, and I think that will nudge him past his two teammates. (Also, I think Quickley will have a good year and his contract won’t be objectionable by the end of that. It is hard to quantify that in the form of a prediction.)
11. Quickley will finish the season averaging the second-most 3-pointers per game in franchise history
I wanted this to be bolder, but Fred VanVleet averaged 9.9 3-point attempts per game in 2021-22, playing almost 38 minutes per game. I cannot, in good conscience, say Quickley will attempt more when he is likely to play four fewer minutes per game.
Call me a believer, call me what you will, but I believe he can (and should) get to VanVleet’s 9.2 from the Tampa Tank season. Quickley will have the greenest of lights from deep, and his shooting threat is maybe the single biggest factor in making the Raptors’ offence work. Quickley is trying to develop his playmaking, but he is still slightly more important for his scoring on this team.
12. Barnes will be an All-Star (as an injury replacement, again)
This is lower down because of the specific nature of this prediction. Also, Barnes repeating as an All-Star is bold, based mostly on the notion that coaches pick the reserves, and coaches prefer players on winning teams. As you’ve intuited, I don’t think the Raptors will win very often. Let’s assume Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Milwaukee are the top four teams in the standings; here are the names of players on those teams that have been All-Stars in the last two years: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard. That’s nine guys before getting to Cleveland, Indiana or Orlando.
Injuries happen, though. I think Barnes will continue to develop nicely, put up some good counting stats and make it when stars inevitably start to see the benefit of a week in the Caribbean versus San Francisco, no shade to the Bay Area.
I don’t see Barnes making All-NBA and therefore having his extension account for 30 percent of the Raptors’ cap next season instead of 25, unless more players than last year fail to hit the 65-game threshold.
13. The Raptors will trade Poeltl before the trade deadline
It’s all about the incentives. Sure, Poeltl helps the Raptors play a respectable brand of basketball, especially on defence. The Raptors need an infusion of talent in a big way, and their final 20 games are their easiest stretch of the season. It features some games that could make or break draft standing (three against Washington, two against Utah, singles against Detroit, Brooklyn, Charlotte and Portland). If the Raptors are not careful, they could go on a run to end the season, reminiscent of the 2008-09 season when they went 9-4 to close out the season and get to 33 wins, ninth in the reverse standings. That’s where they ended up drafting, selecting DeMar DeRozan.
I’m guessing Poeltl will bring in less than what the Raptors gave up for him in 2023, but no need to relive that again. The Raptors need some more talent, and removing Poeltl from the lineup, all while getting some marginal value in return, is the easiest way to do that.
14. The Raptors will finish in the bottom four of the Eastern Conference (specifically, 12th, at 27-55)
I know, I know: Washington, Detroit, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Chicago. I understand.
I just think the Raptors have acknowledged their reality now, and they know what needs to be done. The Raptors have to give Barnes a chance to make All-NBA, given what is at stake for him financially. However, if the Raptors are significantly under .500 come March, he will know he has no chance for that. The tough schedule, the injuries to start the year — all of that plays into the Raptors being in bad shape when the trade deadline and All-Star break arrive and the schedule finally softens.
The Raptors have let go of the facade of competing. Nobody wants a prolonged stay outside of the playoffs, but things will be so tough to start that another year in the mid-lottery, with decent odds to move up, will be the obvious way to go. From the above group of five, I’ll take the Pistons and Bulls to finish ahead of them.
15. Drake won’t attend a Raptors game in Toronto this season
To be completely honest, I don’t know if this is bold or the complete opposite of bold.
Required Reading
- John Hollinger’s previews: Top of the East | Bottom of the East
- One bold prediction for all 30 NBA teams
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(Top photo of Drake and Scottie Barnes: Vaughn Ridley / NBAE via Getty Images)
