Midseason is the perfect time to take stock of the Big 12. In lieu of our typical game-preview-style Chaos Meter, let’s run down the entire conference heading into the second half of the season.
Big 12 midseason chaos meter: 5/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
The teams at the top of the Big 12 standings right now were picked sixth, ninth and 13th in the preseason Big 12 poll. The team picked last is tied for third place, while the preseason favorite is in the bottom half. Chaos, indeed.
Let’s take a snapshot of the league by breaking it down into tiers to assess what we’ve seen.
The title contenders 🔥
No. 13 BYU (6-0, 3-0 Big 12)
BYU is easily one of the biggest surprises. The Cougars, picked 13th in the 16-team Big 12 preseason media poll, have surpassed last season’s win total, notching impressive victories over SMU, Kansas State and Arizona. The defense has led the way with a league-best 4.4 yards per play allowed and with a plus-seven turnover margin under second-year coordinator Jay Hill. Linebackers Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker have combined for 12 tackles for loss, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been serviceable on offense. The rest of BYU’s schedule looks favorable, avoiding Iowa State, Texas Tech and Colorado, as the Cougars have sights on the conference title game and maybe more.
No. 9 Iowa State (6-0, 3-0)
The Cyclones cracked the top 10 in this week’s AP poll and are 6-0 for the first time since 1938. The defense is shining once again, best in the Big 12 and top five in FBS at 11 points per game allowed and with a plus-nine turnover margin. But the differentiator is a balanced and versatile offense, led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s completed 66.5 percent of his throws for 9.1 yards per attempt. It helps having a pair of all-conference receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, who have combined for 68 catches, 1,033 yards and eight touchdowns. Head coach Matt Campbell, who tied ISU’s nine-win single-season record in 2020, has a chance to crack double-digit victories for the first time in program history.
Texas Tech (5-1, 3-0)
The Red Raiders rebounded from a slow start to win four straight, including three in a row by one score. Texas Tech has won seven one-possession games in a row and is 11-3 in games decided by no more than eight points in the Joey McGuire era. Having a healthy Tahj Brooks has been the difference — he leads the Big 12 in rushing yards per game (135.8). And a leaky defense has stepped up, especially on third downs, in the red zone and in takeaways (in conference play, Texas Tech is tied for third in the Big 12 in each category).
The back half of the schedule is manageable, but a tough test on Nov. 2 at Iowa State looms. Beyond that, the Red Raiders might be favored in every other game.
No. 17 Kansas State (5-1, 2-1)
The blowout loss to BYU is the only blemish on an otherwise impressive slate, with wins at Tulane and Colorado and big wins over Arizona and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats, picked second in the league’s preseason media poll, are the only team in the top five of those rankings that didn’t land in our “disappointments” category. The offense is humming behind the flowing locks of sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson, who has teamed up with running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards for one of the best rushing attacks in college football (241 yards per game, 6.4 yards per carry). The remaining schedule also sets up nicely, with Arizona State and Cincinnati at home before a season finale at Iowa State that could have a major impact on the conference title and CFP races.
The upstarts 📈
Arizona State (5-1, 2-1)
Maybe the team picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll should take it as an honor. In 2023, West Virginia was the preseason bottom feeder and went 9-4. This year, it was Arizona State, and second-year coach Kenny Dillingham has the Sun Devils in the thick of the conference race.
It hasn’t been fluky, either. This team plays much more sound and disciplined ball than it did a year ago, and the work done to improve the roster is evident. The Sun Devils have won four one-possession games. Cam Skattebo, the nation’s fifth-leading rusher, has been the catalyst, but the addition of transfer QB Sam Leavitt has also been key. He’s out this weekend against Cincinnati, opening the door for another transfer QB, Jeff Sims, so it’ll be worth monitoring. And the second-half schedule is tough: It includes back-to-back November tilts against K-State and BYU. But this is a good team that should be more than just a spoiler.
Cincinnati (4-2, 2-1)
The Bearcats have also surpassed last season’s win total and have a legit chance to reach bowl eligibility, which would be a nice momentum swing in Year 2 under Scott Satterfield. The roster talent is significantly upgraded thanks to some shrewd transfer additions, particularly on offense, which is second in the league at 6.7 yards per play. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby ranks top 15 in the FBS in passing yards and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and three of his top four targets are fellow transfers, including tight end Joe Royer with 28 receptions and two touchdowns.
Colorado (4-2, 2-1)
This is an improved Buffaloes squad compared to the first year of the Deion Sanders era. The substantial offensive skill talent keeps them in games, and the additions of Lajohntay Wester and Will Sheppard have made the passing game even more dangerous. Defensively, they’ve been one of the Big 12’s better units on third downs, allowing conversions just 35.2 percent of the time (fourth best in the league).
After a solid start, the second-half schedule seems ripe for Colorado to, at minimum, get itself to a bowl. If the Buffs win the next two, at Arizona and vs. Cincinnati, things could get really interesting.
Middle of the pack ↔
West Virginia (3-3, 2-1)
The Mountaineers have beaten lesser or disappointing opponents (Albany, Kansas, Oklahoma State) but have come up short against Penn State, Pitt and Iowa State, three teams currently ranked in the Top 25 and undefeated. WVU has struggled to find much stability in the process. The ground game has been solid, as expected, but the same inconsistencies that plagued quarterback Garrett Greene last season haven’t improved: He’s completed 57.3 percent of his throws with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. Head coach Neal Brown hopes the game-day atmosphere will keep fans invested, but unless Greene tightens things up and cuts back on the turnovers, it’s tough to envision West Virginia elevating to the top of this chaos.
Because people are only using the first part of Neal Brown’s answer to my question, here’s the full response.
If he just said the second part, I highly doubt there’s backlash.
I’ll also add I honestly didn’t plan to stir anything up. I thought it was a simple question. 🤷🏻♂️ pic.twitter.com/msR4sbJfHg
— Mike J. Asti (@MikeAsti11) October 15, 2024
The disappointments 😐
Arizona (3-3, 1-2)
High hopes of contending for the league title in the Wildcats’ Big 12 debut have fallen flat. Despite the presence of QB Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan — who is one of the top receivers in the FBS — the offense hasn’t been as explosive as expected. Arizona’s 2.08 points per drive rank 13th in the Big 12, its 37.8 percent third-down conversion rate is 12th and its red zone touchdown rate (53.3 percent) is also 12th. In goal-to-go situations, Arizona is finding the end zone 50 percent of the time, last in the league, according to TruMedia.
Kansas (1-5, 0-3)
Kansas is arguably the biggest disappointment on this meter. The Jayhawks, coming off a banner 9-4 season in 2023, were picked fourth in the preseason poll, garnered five first-place votes … and are 1-5 overall, 0-3 in league play. Their lone win is against FCS Lindenwood. A healthy Jalon Daniels at quarterback has not been the offensive linchpin so many of us expected, completing just 54 percent of his throws with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. The loss of offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State has had a noticeable impact, and the schedule doesn’t let up.
Oklahoma State (3-3, 0-3)
Nothing underscores the Big 12 chaos better than Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy conducting his weekly news conference remotely and off camera after getting headbutted by one of his cows. Gundy said his eye was full of blood and he had some dizziness, but that he was doing fine overall. He also joked that his cattle “must have been watching us play” after the Pokes have dropped three straight to open conference play.
Oklahoma State HC Mike Gundy had to move his press conference to Zoom after getting head-butted by his cow🤕
“I had a little run-in with my cattle over the weekend. And I guess they’ve been watching us play.”
(via @newson6) https://t.co/WPkc1Y0so4 pic.twitter.com/5QORlVlOKw
— On3 (@On3sports) October 14, 2024
The recent stretch has been a massive letdown for the Cowboys, who won 10 games and reached the Big 12 Championship Game in 2023, and climbed as high as No. 13 in the AP Poll in September. Reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II has been banged up and bottled up, held to just 3.8 yards per carry, and quarterback Alan Bowman has been benched in two separate games.
UCF (3-3, 1-2)
The Knights started 3-0 and were stoking some dark-horse buzz before stepping in the elevator shaft for a three-game skid. An offense that had the top-performing rushing attack in the FBS entering the Week 5 loss to Colorado has since fizzled, and sixth-year transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson — voted the preseason newcomer of the year — was benched for the loss to Cincinnati. A roster meant to address last year’s struggles with depth and stamina has instead bumped against the same issues and will have to try and get on track at Iowa State and home against BYU the next two weeks.
Utah (3-3, 1-2)
The league’s preseason favorite saw its chances change dramatically when Rising got knocked out of a Week 2 win over Baylor. The Utes chugged along behind freshman Isaac Wilson to a 4-0 start, but losses to Arizona and Arizona State have them on the outside looking in at the title race.
Rising returned for the Arizona State game, but is now out for the season with a lower-leg injury. Wilson is the starter “until further notice,” Kyle Whittingham said. Utah is still a tough out: The Utes are first in the league in third-down defense, second in the conference in stop rate, third in scoring defense and fourth in yards allowed per play. But until the offense can muster more than the 22.4 points per game it has averaged against FBS competition, it’s hard to picture Utah rejoining the league race.
The struggle bus 🚌
Baylor (2-4, 0-3)
The Bears needed a strong start in Dave Aranda’s hot-seat year, and they provided the opposite. Another ominous sign: The defense, which Aranda took over this offseason as part of the pitch to save his job, has been spotty of late. The 34.5 points per game Baylor has allowed in conference games is second-worst in the league, and the 2.5 points per drive is 12th. The personnel looks better than it did a year ago, but the results aren’t changing. When will they? Baylor is 3-17 in its last 20 games against FBS competition.
Houston (2-4, 1-2)
With key personnel losses, 63 newcomers and a new staff and schemes under new coach Willie Fritz, this seemed destined to be a tough year. The lows have been really low: The Cougars were shut out in back-to-back weeks, a first in 30 years. But there have been some positive signs. The 30-19 upset win over TCU is something to build upon. The defense ranks in the top 30 nationally in yards per play and yards per game, 41st in points per drive.
TCU (3-3, 1-2)
The Horned Frogs, who hoped to rebound from last year’s disappointing 5-7 turn, are at an inflection point after some disastrous showings since mid-September. They coughed up a three-touchdown second-half lead in a home loss to UCF, got 66 scored on them by rival SMU in a game that Sonny Dykes was ejected from and allowed 24 first-half points to the nation’s worst offense in a loss to Houston. TCU’s minus-10 turnover margin is the worst in the conference and the second lowest in the FBS.
(Photo of Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht and wide receiver Jayden Higgins: Keith Gillett / IconSportswire)
