LOS ANGELES — The Chicago Cubs aren’t going through the motions or making any bold predictions. There hasn’t been a Justin Steele shutdown or a mandate to let the kids from Triple-A Iowa play in September. It’s been the same consistent demeanor from high-paid manager Craig Counsell and a group of established players who don’t ride the season’s highs and lows.
Do they really think they can do this? By Thursday’s off day, the projection systems had estimated their playoff odds to be between 1.4 percent (FanGraphs) and 3.4 percent (Baseball-Reference). This is the wrong clubhouse to try to find someone to pop off about the doubters or tell the nerds to save it.
“Math is math,” shortstop Dansby Swanson said. “But that doesn’t have any bearing on what we’re trying to accomplish today. Everyone is obviously aware of what needs to happen. We’re not silly. But that hasn’t once dictated our mentality going into each game.
“We’re here to win baseball games.”
As it stands, the Cubs (75-71) would have to pass two teams to get the National League’s last wild-card spot. If necessary, the Cubs would also lose the head-to-head tiebreakers against the New York Mets (80-66) and Atlanta Braves (79-67). As an example, if the Cubs go 13-3 the rest of the way to finish 88-74 — and the Mets split their remaining 16 games to end with the same record and there’s no mind-blowing collapse by the teams in front of them — the Mets would play in October and the Cubs would go home.
“There’s no hiding that,” Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “Of course, I’m looking to see if the Mets and Braves have won. Mathematically, it’s not in our control, right? We could win every game the rest of the year, and if they also win every game — like the Mets (seemingly) have — then you don’t go to the playoffs. Do we think we can do it? Yeah, we think we can continue to play really high-level baseball.
“I like the schedule that we have in front of us. I like how our group is playing. And I like our chances of having a really high winning percentage the rest of the season. We can’t control what the other teams do, especially when we don’t play them. That’s where you wish you had those head-to-head opportunities to make up ground.
“As far as the group’s belief, and continuing to play our best baseball the rest of the year, and giving ourselves the best opportunity, then, yeah, that belief’s really high.”
Belli brings us within one! 👀 pic.twitter.com/YKmtBRXC3u
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 12, 2024
The Cubs don’t look like a team ready to check out, splitting their last six games against the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, two teams with World Series-or-bust expectations. Steele, the All-Star pitcher dealing with left elbow tendinitis, is ramping back up to bullpen sessions and feeling symptom-free. Dynamic rookies like Shota Imanaga and Pete Crow-Armstrong are showing no signs of slowing down. Young pitchers such as Jordan Wicks certainly have something to prove.
Cody Bellinger wants to finish strong ahead of his contractual opt-out decision and return to the playoffs for the seventh time in his career. Like Hoerner said, the upcoming matchups should work to their advantage. After this weekend at Coors Field, the Cubs will have only one remaining road series, which will be against the Philadelphia Phillies, the only playoff contender left on their schedule. Within 17 days, a team that needs sweeps will face the Colorado Rockies, Oakland A’s, Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds.
“We know we got to pile up some wins,” Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks said. “It’s one day at a time, though. You can’t win three games or four games in one day. We know what our focus is. We know it’s a short stretch here. We’re just giving it everything we got. We know if we play to our potential and play an all-around team game, anything can happen.”
Within the clubhouse, there’s disappointment that the Cubs put themselves in this position by playing so poorly in May (10-18) and June (11-16), a deep spiral that can also be traced back to roster construction and not quite enough power hitting and power pitching. There’s an acknowledgment that early-season injuries crushed a bullpen that was counting on Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Yency Almonte. There’s some puzzlement as to why Wrigley Field has been one of the worst places in the majors to hit this season.
“Super frustrating” is how Bellinger described the possibility of falling short again after last year’s 83-win campaign — when 84 wins could have gotten the Cubs into the playoffs — because he still sees the potential.
“I’ve been on good teams — this team is good,” Bellinger said. “We’ve been saying it all along. We just had this crazy stretch. If we minimize that stretch, then we’re having a little different story here. It’s not over yet.”
(Photo of Cody Bellinger celebrating a home run with teammates on Wednesday: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
