There is no shortage of big games in college football this week with Texas hosting Georgia and Tennessee hosting Alabama. My model likes Texas by 2.5 points against Georgia and Alabama by three points at Tennessee.
The betting line for the Georgia-Texas game has been moving towards Texas. The spread is now the Longhorns -5, but my model thinks that is too much of a move.
In other games of note this week, my model likes Indiana by six points against Nebraska, Miami by four points at Louisville and Michigan by 3.5 points at Illinois. One of the bigger differences between the betting spread this week is the Georgia Tech–Notre Dame game. The Fighting Irish are -12.5, but my model has Notre Dame by 8.5 points.
For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 8 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my Week 8 best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
College football Week 8 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Georgia State |
|
|
54
|
51.5
|
 Marshall |
-8
|
-8.5
|
|
|
 Boston Coll. |
|
|
45
|
48.5
|
 Virginia Tech |
-6
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Florida State |
|
|
41.5
|
42.5
|
 Duke |
-4
|
-3
|
|
|
 Oregon |
|
|
60
|
60.5
|
 Purdue |
30
|
28.5
|
|
|
 Oklahoma St. |
|
|
54.5
|
52.5
|
 BYU |
-6.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 Fresno State |
|
|
48
|
50.5
|
 Nevada |
3
|
3
|
|
|
 Miami |
|
|
56
|
59.5
|
 Louisville |
4
|
5
|
|
|
 Virginia |
|
|
54.5
|
57.5
|
 Clemson |
-18.5
|
-21
|
|
|
 Nebraska |
|
|
54
|
50.5
|
 Indiana |
-6
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 UCLA |
|
|
44
|
40.5
|
 Rutgers |
-7.5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Wisconsin |
|
|
40.5
|
41.5
|
 Northwestern |
9
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Auburn |
|
|
48.5
|
50.5
|
 Missouri |
-6.5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Wake Forest |
|
|
59.5
|
56.5
|
 UConn |
-0.5
|
-2
|
|
|
 East Carolina |
|
|
54
|
51.5
|
 Army |
-14
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Arizona State |
|
|
52.5
|
50.5
|
 Cincinnati |
-0.5
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 Louisiana |
|
|
61
|
57.5
|
 Coastal Caro. |
4.5
|
4.5
|
|
|
 So. Carolina |
|
|
42
|
41.5
|
 Oklahoma |
-3
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 C. Michigan |
|
|
52
|
54.5
|
 E. Michigan |
-1
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Tulsa |
|
|
50.5
|
52.5
|
 Temple |
-1
|
-3
|
|
|
 Alabama |
|
|
55
|
56.5
|
 Tennessee |
3
|
3
|
|
|
 Notre Dame |
|
|
51.5
|
49.5
|
 Georgia Tech |
8.5
|
12.5
|
|
|
 Michigan |
|
|
43
|
44.5
|
 Illinois |
3.5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Charlotte |
|
|
52
|
55.5
|
 Navy |
-20
|
-17
|
|
|
 NC State |
|
|
49
|
46.5
|
 California |
-10.5
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Houston |
|
|
49
|
47.5
|
 Kansas |
-7
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 Hawai’i |
|
|
56
|
55.5
|
 Wash. State |
-17
|
-18.5
|
|
|
 Texas State |
|
|
55.5
|
61.5
|
 Old Dominion |
11
|
10
|
|
|
 Ohio |
|
|
47
|
44.5
|
 Miami (OH) |
-2
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Kent State |
|
|
53
|
55.5
|
 Bowling Green |
-24
|
-20
|
|
|
 W. Michigan |
|
|
47
|
47.5
|
 Buffalo |
0
|
1.5
|
|
|
 Toledo |
|
|
45.5
|
43.5
|
 No. Illinois |
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 UAB |
|
|
63
|
57.5
|
 South Florida |
-12
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 FAU |
|
|
50
|
52.5
|
 UTSA |
-5.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Rice |
|
|
48.5
|
52.5
|
 Tulane |
-19.5
|
-22.5
|
|
|
 USC |
|
|
55
|
56.5
|
 Maryland |
6.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Colorado |
|
|
59.5
|
58.5
|
 Arizona |
-2.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 Baylor |
|
|
57
|
55.5
|
 Texas Tech |
-7
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Wyoming |
|
|
50.5
|
51.5
|
 San Jose St. |
-12
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 James Madison |
|
|
58
|
58.5
|
 Georgia So. |
10
|
10
|
|
|
 Texas A&M |
|
|
53
|
55.5
|
 Miss. State |
15.5
|
16.5
|
|
|
 New Mexico |
|
|
66.5
|
78.5
|
 Utah State |
1
|
1.5
|
|
|
 LSU |
|
|
56.5
|
55.5
|
 Arkansas |
4.5
|
1.5
|
|
|
 Ball State |
|
|
57
|
57.5
|
 Vanderbilt |
-19
|
-25.5
|
|
|
 Arkansas St. |
|
|
52.5
|
55.5
|
 Southern Miss. |
6
|
6.5
|
|
|
 Georgia |
|
|
53.5
|
55.5
|
 Texas |
-2.5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 North Texas |
|
|
67
|
66.5
|
 Memphis |
-13.5
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 UCF |
|
|
50.5
|
49.5
|
 Iowa State |
-12
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 Kansas State |
|
|
56
|
55.5
|
 West Virginia |
1.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Iowa |
|
|
37.5
|
39.5
|
 Michigan St. |
6.5
|
5.5
|
|
|
 Kentucky |
|
|
45
|
42.5
|
 Florida |
-1
|
1.5
|
|
|
 SMU |
|
|
56
|
53.5
|
 Stanford |
14
|
15.5
|
|
|
 Colorado St. |
|
|
49
|
44.5
|
 Air Force |
7
|
7
|
|
|
 UNLV |
|
|
59.5
|
60.5
|
 Oregon State |
4.5
|
7
|
|
|
 TCU |
|
|
45.5
|
49.5
|
 Utah |
-4
|
-4.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Dylan Sampson: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
