Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals, courtesy of TruMedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback, of course we need volume, but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s on to charting EPA/Attempt and NextGen Stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (Images below)
Before you go digging through my speculative bargain bin, make sure Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Drake Maye are no longer available. The QB charts feature the usual suspects — no surprise there. Last week I said, “I want to go on record as saying I think Trevor Lawrence is the answer… just not yet”. After seeing him play well against a very tough Chicago defense in a loss, I think it’s time we make our move. At this stage, we pretty much know what we have in the majority of these players — the one with the best combination of environment and ceiling if things break right is Trevor Lawrence. Another strong performance this weekend after passing for a 605-4-2 line over his past two games will vault T-Law into next week’s waiver darlings.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the mainstream headliners — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Ray Davis, Isaac Guerendo, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Tyler Goodson, and Sean Tucker have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
5 Available RBs w/+40.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (+10 Touches Past 3 Games)
- Trey Benson, ARI — 69.6% Touch/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 41.1% Touch/Snap
- Trey Sermon, IND — 41.0% Touch/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 40.5% Touch/Snap
- D’Onta Foreman, CLE — 38.2% Touch/Snap
6 Available RBs w/+0.30 Fantasy Points Per Snap (+10 Touches Past 3 Games)
- Jeremy McNichols, WAS — 0.46 FPS/Snap
- Roschon Johnson, CHI — 0.44 FPS/Snap
- Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.42 FPS/Snap
- Ty Johnson, BUF — 0.37 FPS/Snap
- Trey Benson, ARI — 0.37 FPS/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 0.33 FPS/Snap
- Dare Ogunbowale, HOU — 0.32 FPS/Snap
- Pierre Strong Jr., CLE — 0.30 FPS/Snap
- Miles Sanders, CAR — 0.30 FPS/Snap
It’s another suboptimal week for desperation RB streams if you happened to sleep through the first waiver run. That said, it’s par for the course at this stage, where it becomes more about identifying the crop of “next men up.” With RB committees as the new standard in the first place, you’ll be hard-pressed to find immediate production for Sunday. If I had to pick my favorite combination of payout now and later, it’s the Packers’ Emanuel Wilson. Preseason MarShawn Lloyd backers like myself must capitulate, Wilson is the man in the Green Bay backfield if an opportunity arises. He currently leads the team in success rate, rush yards over expectation, and explosive rush rate — and obviously, getting the lion’s share of Matt LaFleur’s RB situation could be a season-changer. Get into optimal positions and hope for the best.
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Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Demario Douglas, Bub Means, and Jakobi Meyers belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
7 Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route, +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route (Past 3 Games)
- Kristian Wilkerson, LV — 17.0 Rte/Gm, 17.6% TPRR, 0.58 FPS/Rte
- Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS — 16.0 Rte/Gm, 31.3% TPRR, 0.48 FPS/Rte
- Ladd McConkey, LAC — 28.0 Rte/Gm, 26.8% TPRR, 0.46 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 29.0 Rte/Gm, 20.7% TPRR, 0.41 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 26.5 Rte/Gm, 22.6% TPRR, 0.29 FPS/Rte
- Tyler Lockett, SEA — 45.3 Rte/Gm, 16.9% TPRR, 0.29 FPS/Rte
- Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL — 40.3 Rte/Gm, 16.5% TPRR, 0.23 FPS/Rte
Oof. The brutal run of WR injuries, plus the drop in passing league-wide, has put unusual stress on the pass catcher market. My desperation WR play, Devaughn Vele, will have already played by the time you read this (and the way Bo Nix looks, it may not even matter). So I’m not exactly sure of the who, but I may have the where. The shakeup in New England at QB spun the roulette wheel of opportunities. Both Kayshon Boutte and Ja’Lynn Polk ran a similar number routes, earning a similar number of targets. That said, Boutte (3-59-1) produced for fantasy GMs whereas Polk (1-4-0) underwhelmed. If not for Polk having second-round draft capital, this one would feel easier to discern — so I charted both of their Week 6 routes. That way, you can decide for yourself. If I had to choose one for right now, it’s Kayshon Boutte for the extra year of experience and diversity in route tree (below).
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top add Grant Calcaterra isn’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets.
5 TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +5.0 Air Yards Per Target (Past 3 Games)
- Jonnu Smith, MIA — 17.3% Team Tar, 7.2 AY/Tar
- Noah Gray, KC — 9.7% Team Tar, 5.2 AY/Tar
- Cade Otton, TB — 17.8% Team Tar, 5.0 AY/Tar
Top Stashes
- RB: Khalil Herbert, CHI — Herbert can’t sniff the field for Chicago and there are a couple of good teams in need of RB help.
Week 7 Sunday Streaming Service (<35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Drake Maye, NE at JAX
- QB — Daniel Jones, NYG vs PHI
- RB — Tyler Allgeier, ATL at SEA
- RB — Tyjae Spears, TEN at BUF
- WR — Kayshon Boutte, NE at JAX
- WR — Ja’Lynn Polk, NE at JAX
- WR — Sterling Shepard, TB vs BAL
- TE — Noah Gray, KC at SF
- DST — Bengals at CLE
(Top photo of Kayshon Boutte: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
