The NFC North is up for grabs. All four teams are above .500. All four teams have a point differential of plus-40. No other team outside of this division can boast that.
It’s looking like the strongest division in football, and the two teams at the top — the Minnesota Vikings (5-0) and Detroit Lions (4-1) — are set to meet this weekend, with first place on the line.
Sunday should be one of the best chess matches of the early season so far. It features two coaching staffs with offensive brainpower and respected defensive minds. Both teams are looking to prove something. The Vikings can improve to 6-0 and make a statement with a win over the Lions — the favorites to repeat as NFC North Champions and a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl. The Lions, meanwhile, are playing their first game without star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson and will look to remind the NFL they’re not going anywhere.
A lot on the line Sunday afternoon in Minnesota. Let’s dive into the key matchups, and what could unfold this weekend.
Jared Goff vs. Brian Flores
On February 3, 2019, Brian Flores, then the New England Patriots’ defensive coordinator, faced Goff and the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII. That day, the old adage was true: defensive wins championships.
Goff was held to 19-of-38 for 229 yards and an interception. When blitzed, Goff completed 9-of-19 attempts for 118 yards and an interception, with an EPA per dropback of -0.39. The Patriots won 13-3 in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. And a narrative surrounding Goff was set: he can’t handle the blitz.
Fast forward to 2023. Goff is a Lion. Flores is running the Vikings’ defense. They would play twice in the final three games of the season. More of the same, right?
Not exactly. Per TruMedia, Goff completed 40 of his 55 attempts (72.7 percent) when blitzed against the Vikings last season. He threw for 442 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. In those games, his EPA per dropback when blitzed was 0.37. For reference, the league leader for the 2023 season was Brock Purdy at 0.26. Goff was extremely efficient when Flores and the Vikings blitzed last year. He’s been even better against the blitz this season, completing 32-of-44 attempts for 586 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, with an EPA/DB of 0.41. It’s a sign of his growth as a quarterback and the offense in place around him.
But the Lions have respect for the job Flores has done, and his defense has only added talent after last year’s matchup. His defense puts offenses in conflict with the number of looks they can throw at you on a snap-to-snap basis.
“He does a fantastic job of not letting you know where it’s coming from,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of Flores’ blitz plan. “He finds a way each week. …They try to find a way to get a free hitter. I know Aaron Rodgers certainly felt that when they played them. So, we have to be on top of it with our communication. …Third down, there’s a multitude of issues that could arise. (Former Lions Head) Coach (Matt) Patricia used to talk about it when he was here, the max coverage or max pressure, and they do that. They do that at any point. So first and second down, third down, red zone, they give you both of those issues and so being able to distinguish between the two and being able to protect it up is very hard.”
As well as Goff has fared vs. the blitz as he’s matured as a quarterback, it’s worth noting his performance when pressured by four defenders. When the Vikings got pressure with just four, Goff completed just nine of his 23 attempts for 107 yards, with an EPA/DB of -0.19. So this game will be a departure from Flores’ blitz-heavy game plan, and have more of a conservative approach. It’ll be fascinating to see what adjustments are made, if any, after the Lions had some success last year. Or perhaps Minnesota’s added talent (Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Greenard, etc.) gives Flores confidence this will be a better outcome.
Aaron Glenn vs. Sam Darnold
One of the toughest challenges facing this Lions’ defense going forward will be learning how to play without Hutchinson. After having surgery in Dallas for a fractured tibia and fibula, Hutchinson is expected to miss the next 4-6 months, with the Lions not ruling out a potential Super Bowl return. In the meantime, though, they’re forced to pick up the pieces and regroup ahead of an all-import divisional matchup.
Our first glimpse of life without Hutchinson just so happens to coincide with Detroit’s biggest game of the year to date. How will they adapt?
“Aidan’s one of the best players that is positioned in the league,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said. “So, do they change? Do they change how they play? I don’t think so. But if they do, we’ll have to make some adjustments. But, when 97 is not out there, it’s going to be impactful to any defense, but I will say between [Alim] McNeill and the other players they have on the edge, I think they’ve got great linebackers and the way they activate all 11, I think they’re the number one blitzing team on third down in the NFL. They play an attacking style, it might not be identical or similar to Flo’s defense and our attacking style, everybody has their own flavor, but I think AG does a phenomenal job and it’s always a challenge to play against these guys. They’ve got really good personnel and they have the next man up mentality and we expect to have a heck of a challenge no matter what on Sunday.”
“It’s tough to lose a player like Aidan,” Glenn said. “We all know the type of player he was, we all know the type of season he was having. But here’s what we don’t do. We don’t ask guys to replace Aidan because everybody is his own man, and everybody has different traits and abilities. And we ask those guys to be them. We try to put them in positions to be the best player that they can be. … The one thing I do know is that Aidan doesn’t play every play, and we have guys that go out there and play when he’s out and they do a good job for us, and we expect them to continue to do a good job.”
The first school of thought is that the Lions will blitz more to account for the consistent pressure Hutchinson was giving them each week prior to his injury. They have the personnel to do it, and Glenn is no stranger to the blitz — no matter what shape his defense has been in over the years. Since 2021, the Lions have the 8th-highest blitz rate in the league at 30.4 percent. The Lions haven’t needed the blitz as much as they have in past years with Hutchinson, McNeill and Levi Onwuzurike providing pressure from a four-man front, but would it make sense to dial it up on Sunday?
According to TruMedia, maybe not. You know those Goff numbers vs. the blitz this year? Sam Darnold has been even better. The Vikings, much like the Lions, have answers to the test when opponents blitz. When facing five or more rushers, Darnold is completing 70 percent of his passes, throwing for 395 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions with a passer rating of 152.1 and an EPA/DB of 0.52 (second-highest in the league). It’s where he’s thrived this year. When Darnold isn’t blitzed, his EPA/DB falls to 28th in the league. His completion percentage of 61.7 when he isn’t blitzed ranks dead last in the NFL, and he’s thrown seven touchdowns, but all four of his interceptions have come when teams haven’t blitzed.
Not allowing Darnold to identify the free rusher and take advantage could be key in a game like this, especially if Detroit continues to defend the run at a high level. They’d essentially be asking their guys to create pressure organically and dare Darnold to beat them. It could make the Vikings’ offense one-dimensional. Of course, that hasn’t stopped them from putting up numbers against Detroit’s secondary in recent years. Here’s every Justin Jefferson performance against the Lions:
- Dec. 11, 2022: 223 receiving yards
- Jan. 7, 2024: 192 receiving yards
- Dec. 5, 2021: 182 receiving yards
- Dec. 24, 2023: 141 receiving yards
- Jan. 3, 2021: 133 receiving yards
- Oct. 10, 2021: 124 receiving yards
- Nov. 8, 2020: 64 receiving yards
- Sept. 25, 2022: 14 receiving yards
However, the hope is that the Lions’ much-improved secondary will be better equipped to compete this time around. That’s harder to do if veteran corner Carlton Davis III (quad) can’t go this weekend, but we’ll see if they can limit the damage and come away with a win.
Play-action game
Both of these quarterbacks excel in play-action. We’ll start with Goff. Detroit’s starting quarterback has completed 41 of his 52 attempts (78.8 percent) out of play-action for 668 yards, two touchdowns, one interception and an EPA/DB of 0.53 (second-best in the NFL). He also owns a passer rating of 123.6 on play-action throws. It’s one of his biggest strengths and a staple of Detroit’s offense.
Darnold, meanwhile, isn’t far behind. He has completed 29 of his 44 attempts out of play-action (65.9 percent) for 450 yards, five touchdowns, an interception and an EPA/DB of 0.35 (seventh in the league. His play-action passer rating of 128.3 ranks third in the NFL. It’s been a big part of his early-season success.
With both quarterbacks thriving in play-action, it’s worth noting how these defenses are at defending it. Per TruMedia, the Vikings’ defense ranks fourth in defensive EPA per play at 0.11. Detroit’s defense, meanwhile, ranks 21st at -0.17. Worth noting ahead of this one.
Two dominant run defenses, but will Detroit’s star power be the difference?
As we’ve covered, the Lions and Vikings might have more in common than you’d think. Both teams boast top run defenses, capable of shutting things down on the ground.
The Vikings allow 67.2 rushing yards per game (second in the NFL) and 3.6 yards per rush (third), while the Lions allow 83.2 rushing yards per game (third) and 4.2 yards per rush (seventh). Minnesota allows the fewest yards per contact per rush in the NFL at 0.81. The Lions haven’t been as good (20th in that department), but they rank 6th in yards after contact per rush. We could keep going, but, you get the point. You could give a slight edge to the Vikings, but at the end of the day, these are two teams who try to eliminate the run from their opponents’ game plan and have been largely effective in doing so.
The difference could be in the personnel each side will face on Sunday. The Lions boast one of the NFL’s best rushing offenses, led by arguably the NFL’s best backfield duo. The Lions rank first in offensive rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game (157.8), eighth in yards per rush. They rush for the second-most first downs per game and have a third-down rush conversion percentage that ranks second in the league, too. They can beat you in a variety of ways — gap, power, zone — and have an offensive line versatile enough to thrive in any situation. They have backs that fight for extra yards and receivers that are active in blocking downfield. It’s an all-hands-on-deck mentality, which makes it one of the league’s best.
The Vikings, meanwhile, haven’t been as efficient. Minnesota ranks 14th in offensive rushing success rate, 20th in rushing yards per game (115.4) and 24th in yards per rush (4.1). Not to mention, they could be without starting running back Aaron Jones (hamstring). Jones returned to practice on Thursday, giving him a chance to play, but there’s a good chance he’s listed as questionable heading into Sunday’s contest.
Regardless of how things play out, this game will have serious divisional implications. In a race as tight as this one, a loss could be the difference between a first-place finish or a third-place finish when it’s all said and done.
May the most prepared team win.
(Top photo of Ben Johnson and Jared Goff: Paul Sancya / AP Photo)
