MADISON, Wis. — Sports clichés suggest it’s important to say every game is treated the same way. Just another nameless, faceless opponent that shouldn’t warrant more attention than any other.
But, of course, there is a human side. And that is hard to ignore for Wisconsin’s football players in moments like this, on the cusp of a sizable showdown against No. 4 Alabama at 11 a.m. (CT) Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.
“The fact of the matter is this one’s a little bit different,” Badgers safety Hunter Wohler said. “You don’t get to play a top-five team at home in a great atmosphere every single weekend. You can’t lie to yourself and say that it’s not (different).”
As tight end Riley Nowakowski put it: “This is what you wanted. This is what everybody’s been talking about, trying to rebuild the program and set it back on the track we were on before. I think this is part of it.”
Wohler and Nowakowski, both Wisconsin natives, committed to play for the Badgers after Alabama and Wisconsin agreed in 2019 to a home-and-home series, with the first game in Madison five years later. Both recalled having discussions about the potential to play in this game while still in high school. That doesn’t happen with many other opponents. It does for Alabama.
“I’ve had it circled for a long time,” Wohler said. “So to finally be where we are, I’m stoked.”
𝗦𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗣𝗘 𝗢𝗨𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗗𝗜𝗨𝗠‼️
Check your section to see if you’re wearing 🔴 or ⚪️ for Saturday’s game. pic.twitter.com/eRTtvgFAI5
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) September 11, 2024
The opportunity at hand is significant. Wisconsin is playing its first home game against a top-10 nonconference team in 35 years. But, more important to the current state of affairs, the game provides a chance to restore the Badgers to national relevance following consecutive 7-6 seasons and change the trajectory of the program under second-year coach Luke Fickell. Wisconsin has not opened a season 3-0 since 2019, a Rose Bowl campaign and the last time the Badgers finished a season nationally ranked.
Wisconsin players clearly respect the Crimson Tide. They can’t fear them, even if they’re aware of what’s being said outside the program. Following a pair of unconvincing wins, Wisconsin is listed as a 16-point underdog, the largest such number for the Badgers at home since the early 1990s when Barry Alvarez took over a moribund program.
“Last Saturday after our game, sometimes I’ll just scroll through the comments, see what people are actually saying,” Nowakowski said. “It’s just people telling us how bad we are and we’re going to get beat like 60-0 by Bama. I just kind of laugh at it a little bit. They’re not going out there and playing the game.”
Here are three questions Wisconsin can answer on Saturday, plus a prediction:
Can Wisconsin really win big games with the offensive style it has played so far?
Raise your hand if you had Wisconsin entering Week 3 ranked in the top 20 nationally in time of possession. I sure didn’t, especially after the Badgers ranked 82nd in that category a year ago during Phil Longo’s first season as offensive coordinator. Wisconsin has increased its time of possession average from 29:17 per game last season to 33:54 per game, which ranks 17th.
This has occurred, as I wrote about this week, on the strength of bigger personnel packages and behind six drives that have spanned at least 13 plays — though with limited red zone success. The Badgers had five such drives all of last season. Wisconsin has spent the first two weeks attempting to balance its desire for a more physical offense with one capable of excelling as a tempo offense.
However, the offensive product Wisconsin has put on the field has been uneven thus far. And it simply doesn’t seem realistic to believe this version of the Badgers, unlike the run-heavy styles of previous regimes that featured Doak Walker Award-winning running backs, will be able to grind out many long drives against an Alabama defense that ranks sixth nationally in yards-per-play allowed (3.05).
That means Wisconsin needs to try to open up the field and hit some big plays. Badgers quarterback Tyler Van Dyke said Wisconsin’s tempo would come from more explosive plays of the 10-, 15- or 20-yard variety as opposed to 4-yard gains. The problem is those have been few and far between early this season. Only Air Force, a triple-option team, has a worse explosive play rate (12-plus-yard runs or 16-plus-yard passes) than Wisconsin’s 6 percent, according to TruMedia.
South Florida did have some success last week against a talented Alabama defense, hitting on eight explosive plays, and trailed just 14-13 entering the fourth quarter before suffering a 42-16 defeat. But if you’re looking for a blueprint on how to hang with the Crimson Tide, it’s important to note that all eight explosive plays were rushes of 12-plus yards, and five of those came from the Bulls’ mobile quarterback, Byrum Brown. Van Dyke has some rushing ability but doesn’t have a run of longer than 6 yards in either of the first two games.
Van Dyke acknowledged that Wisconsin’s offense “might’ve been holding some stuff back in the vertical game and maybe some stuff on the perimeter” in an effort not to show all its cards. There’s certainly no reason to hold anything back now, but there are also questions about whether Wisconsin has the playmaking ability and the consistency to pull it off against Alabama. The Tide defense has surrendered just one explosive pass play of 16-plus yards, on the second play of the season against Western Kentucky, and none in the last 74 pass attempts.
“I think sometimes you’ve just got to keep taking those shots,” Van Dyke said. “Say you take five shots. You might miss three and hit two. And those two plays are big, explosive plays that change the game. So I think we’ve just got to keep taking those shots and execute as best we can.”
Is this defense ready to meet the challenge?
Whereas Wisconsin’s offense ranks 133rd out of 134 teams in explosive play rate, Alabama ranks 12th at 18.8 percent, per TruMedia. There are playmakers everywhere, beginning with quarterback Jalen Milroe, who is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Milroe has five touchdown passes without an interception and four rushing scores. Running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes have accounted for four rushing touchdowns while combining to average 9.2 yards per carry, and 17-year-old freshman receiver Ryan Williams has been a sensation with 207 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Badgers outside linebacker Darryl Peterson said Alabama would attempt to play what he called “screw you ball.”
“They feel like they have the better players so they’re going to do what they do and expect to be better than us,” Peterson said. “So we’re going to go out there and show that you can’t do that.”
Wisconsin will need to generate pressure up front to disrupt Milroe. The Badgers’ ability to consistently stop the run remains in doubt. On the back end, Wisconsin has hardly been tested down the field, surrendering just 127.5 yards passing per game. That figures to change Saturday.
Wohler said he believed the defense was ready because of how it handled itself in adverse situations the past two weeks, with Wisconsin dominating fourth quarters against Western Michigan and South Dakota. Cornerback Ricardo Hallman said he and his teammates have faced enough quality receivers in the past — including against Ohio State and LSU last season — that they would be prepared for the task at hand.
Can Wisconsin catch some breaks?
Sometimes, you just need the ball to bounce your way at an opportune moment to spark something special. Wisconsin very well could have lost its season opener if not for a muffed Western Michigan punt that the Badgers recovered at the Broncos’ 20-yard line while trailing 14-13 in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin scored less than two minutes later to take a lead it would not relinquish.
Alabama made enough mistakes last week to keep South Florida in the game, losing three second-half fumbles. Kendrick Law fumbled away the second-half kickoff while Miller and Milroe also lost fumbles. If Wisconsin’s defense can force a turnover or two and give the Badgers offense a short field, it would go a long way toward helping the upset cause.
“All I’ve been thinking about is 2021 when we beat Iowa, No. 9 in the country, and (the fans) rushed the field,” Peterson said. “So that’s where my mind is right now. They rush the field and we’ve got USC, Penn State, Oregon, so I’m thinking about winning this game and then what we’ve got after this.”
Prediction
The general sentiment I get from Wisconsin’s fan base is that the Badgers would do well to keep this game within two touchdowns. The way in which Wisconsin has played through two games greatly contributes to that feeling. If Wisconsin had hammered Western Michigan 56-0 like Ohio State did a week later and then beaten South Dakota handily, there might be more optimism.
A win would be monumental for a program that has gone backward since 2019 and would give Fickell a signature performance that demonstrates promise for the future. Stranger things have happened. But I just don’t think Wisconsin has the personnel to pull this off right now, even in front of a home crowd that will be hungry for an upset. Alabama 31, Wisconsin 14.
(Photo of Tyler Van Dyke: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)
