Not that Barry Trotz had envisioned an 0-4-0 start to this season, but while many pundits like myself were lauding the Nashville Predators for their July 1 fireworks of signings, the veteran hockey man cautioned everyone all summer long.
“Like I said at the time, what we do on July 1 is fantasy hockey until we become a good team,” the Predators general manager told The Athletic. “Well, we’ve got to become a good team.”
We spoke Thursday over the phone — before his team went on to drop its fourth straight, this time 4-2 to visiting Edmonton.
Jonathan Marchessault referred to his team as “a fragile group” after Thursday night’s loss.
From afar, this looks like a team still searching for its identity. And for most of their existence as a franchise, the Predators have had an identity. Their modus operandi on most nights has been that they’ll outwork you.
But it’s as if the July 1 signings of Marchessault and Steven Stamkos, in particular, plus defenseman Brady Skjei, led to a team thinking it had become something else.
“The major thing, for me, is that I think we’re trying to outscore our problems rather than outplay the other team,” Trotz said.
In Game 1, against the Dallas Stars, they hit six goalposts and ran into a very good Jake Oettinger. It could have been a win, but instead, the 4-3 loss has now spiraled into three more, outscored 14-5 in those (18-8 overall).
It’s only four games. If this were the middle of January, that might not be glaring. But there’s a danger of digging too big a hole early this season.
The Preds entered the weekend 31st in both goals against per game and goals for per game. All out of whack for this team.
Yes, when Trotz hired Andrew Brunette as head coach in the spring of 2023, the philosophical push behind it was to see the Predators evolve into a more offensively creative team. But not without maintaining a connection to their roots. And it worked last season. The Preds were a balanced team that was tough to play against.
They need to get back to that.
“Good teams always base everything off their five-on-five (play) and their checking game,” Trotz said. “They check and they defend. If they can do that, then everything comes off of that. For us last year, everything came off our game without the puck. It was our pressure. It was our decision-making. It was our pursuit. It was our details in terms of tracking and executing. Everything comes off of that.
“If you get it in reverse, where you want everything to come off the offense, it doesn’t work because you end up on the wrong side of the puck. You end up a second late. Your details aren’t there on the forecheck. One guy is diving in, and it exposes another area. All those little things are things that matter for you to be a really good team.
“We’ve got that a little upside down (right now).”
Nashville was 10th in the league at 3.24 goals per game last season, so it’s not like the Preds couldn’t score. But the idea in adding players like Stamkos and Marchessault, aside from their leadership, was that their organic, top-end ability to finish would help the Preds at key times when they needed a goal.
“We just wanted to be more dangerous in our special teams, wanted to be a little more dangerous in the playoffs when you needed a guy who doesn’t need 10 chances to score a goal — he only needs three,” said Trotz, whose team was limited to 12 goals in six playoff games against the Vancouver Canucks in the spring.
“It’s also a transition for those players, too,” he added.
Marchessault scored his first goal of the season Thursday night, so, hopefully for the Preds, that gets him going. Stamkos, who spent his entire career in Tampa Bay before his dramatic exit last summer, hasn’t scored yet.
It will obviously come, but everyone seems to be trying to find their place right now. And for Stamkos and Marchessault, you’re talking about two guys who care so much, they carry a big presence and certainly did on their former teams.
“They both have strong personalities. That’s what makes good players,” Trotz said. “They have a strong belief system and they have a high skill set and drive and demand a certain standard for themselves.
“They’re trying to find their way, just like anybody else.”
It is a humbling start to the season for a team with big aspirations. But that humbling feeling could end up being a blessing in disguise as far as providing a reset and a reminder.
“It’s not going to come easy. It’s about playing the game the right way,” Trotz said. “It’s just about getting balance in our mindset. That’s everything.”
How the Oettinger deal went down
The Stars got important business done Thursday, extending Oettinger with an eight-year, $66 million deal.
The contract came together rather quickly. Like, in a matter of three days or so once they got down to business for real.
The Stars and Oettinger’s camp hadn’t had any contract discussions during the offseason. They agreed to let the goalie market play out a bit before getting a better read on things.
Soon after Jeremy Swayman signed his eight-year, $66 million deal Oct. 6 with the Boston Bruins, Stars GM Jim Nill reached out to Oettinger’s agent, Ben Hankinson of Octagon Hockey, and asked him if he would be open to commencing contract talks finally.
The answer was “yes” but with a qualifier: Hankinson told Nill they had a short window to get it done. The agent didn’t want the negotiation to last the entire season and be a distraction for his client. In the meantime, Oettinger urged his agent to try to get it done. He loves it in Dallas and absolutely hoped to extend as soon as possible.
That’s why it’s always important to understand the dynamic between player and agent. In this case, if I were to drop some truth serum in Hankinson’s water, he would admit that, in a perfect world, he probably would let the season play out before negotiating this contract, hoping Oettinger has a great season — which he probably will on the Cup-contending Stars — to beef up leverage in contract talks.
But the client wants what the client wants, and Oettinger was clearly open to extending now.
So while Oettinger wasn’t scheduled to be a restricted free agent until July 1, there was a bit of a time crunch. And, it turned out, not much time was needed. As I wrote last week, Swayman was such an obvious comparable to Oettinger — both 25-year-old netminders with similar bodies of work — it would be impossible for either side in the negotiation to stray too far from reality.
But as quick as it was, the negotiation didn’t simply start and end with Swayman’s contract. I’m told that the Stars’ opening position was closer to Juuse Saros’ $7.74 million average annual value and that Hankinson, as any smart agent would, had his opening position north of Swayman’s $8.25 million AAV.
But rather predictably, they found the middle ground at $8.25 million per year. It’s definitely more than the Stars would have wanted to pay if you asked them two months ago. You could say the same of the Bruins. But the goalie market has shifted, with Linus Ullmark also getting $8.25 million a year from the Ottawa Senators in a four-year extension last week.
All the more reason the best goalie in the world, Igor Shesterkin, who has unrestricted-free-agent rights next summer (unlike the younger netminders Swayman and Oettinger), probably feels so emboldened to stick to his asking price.
The salary cap is going up again, and top goalies are finally moving up again in salaries. Shesterkin will be justifiably at the very top of that.
(Top photo of Steven Stamkos: Danny Murphy / Getty Images)
