Ever since Pep Guardiola came to Manchester City, there hasn’t been much debate about the Premier League title odds. For betting purposes, it was a question of whether to throw some money on the Citizens or take a flier on one of their plucky challengers — Liverpool or Arsenal — to topple the kings. Betting the title race was not the place to be if you wanted some longshot variety in your life.
The race for a coveted top four spot has been a lot more entertaining. The past three seasons where Aston Villa, Newcastle and Tottenham earned fourth place, a spot typically reserved for the traditional elite, seemed to be setting us up for a run where betting on a longshot could be both fun and lucrative. Unfortunately, this 2024-25 season might be killing those vibes.
Heading into this weekend’s matches, Arsenal, Liverpool and City are massive favorites to lock up the top three spots. After finishing last season with the league’s fourth-best expected goal (xG) differential, most books had Chelsea as at least co-favorites for that final spot. So far, the free-spending Blues have delivered by currently occupying fourth on goal differential while also sporting the Premier League’s third-best xG per 90 mark.
So is there any hope for an underdog to break up this chalk finish for the top four? Let’s take a look at the key contenders.
Odds via BetFair.
Tottenham 3/1
There are plenty of reasons to like the team from the blue and white part of London. Spurs are currently four points back of Chelsea, but actually sit a spot ahead when it comes to their xG differential per 90. Spurs’ mark of 0.96 xG per 90 — meaning the club is creating chances worth nearly a goal more than their opponent each game — sits only behind Liverpool’s league-leading figure of 1.23.
Manager Ange Postecoglou is in Year 2 of the post-Harry Kane era but has crafted an attack that would make it seem like one of the world’s best strikers is still there. Spurs have the fourth-most goals in the Premier League and are second in shots per 90 at 17.57 — behind only a City team whose numbers are boosted by the fact they blasted 33 shots against an Arsenal side playing a man down for 45 minutes. Spurs have yet to earn a penalty or have an opponent receive a red card.
If you want to dive even deeper into the weeds, Spurs have the second-most passes into the opponent’s penalty area, second-most touches in the opponent’s box and second-most Shot Creating Actions Per 90, all behind, as you might guess, Manchester City. Tottenham also not only leads the Premier League by creating 2.11 xG non-penalty xG per 90, they’re third in the big five leagues in that category behind only PSG and Barcelona. And remember, this is all happening with the club’s iconic attacker, Son Heung-min (who could be available against West Ham this weekend), missing the past three matches.
If you’re wondering at this point why Spurs are getting such long odds to make up just four points over the remaining 31 matches, a big reason why is the loss at Brighton last time out. The Brighton loss from a perch of leading 2-0 early felt very Spursy in its collapse.
While all teams have bad moments, this type of defensive breakdown under Postecoglou has seemed to come way too often. And not always just from open play. The Spurs manager is on record about his disdain for set pieces with irony being that defending them could be what is holding the club back. Entering this weekend, Spurs have allowed the second-most goals on set pieces (3), just behind relegation candidates Southampton and Wolves. This may not be some early season anomaly as Postecoglu’s crew surrendered the third-most xG from set pieces (per the Analyst) in 2023-24.
In order to snag a spot in the top four, Spurs need to win the battles on the margins. Leaking set piece goals throughout the season makes that four-point deficit a lot harder to overcome than it may seem. There’s also some schedule luck involved in their early season performance. Leicester, Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle and Everton all currently sit in the bottom eight of shots allowed per 90. Manchester United finished second-last in that category the previous year. You know who Spurs have played in six of their seven matches? Leicester, Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle, Everton and United. While you can point out that Arsenal’s inclusion in there is fluky given that City match, there’s still some fortune involved in those opponents.
It may be enticing to back the Spurs attack — and as a neutral, I’m here for James Maddison-Dejan Kulusevski as free box-to-box midfielders — to propel them past the chalk and into the top four. It’ll also likely be even more inviting after this weekend when Tottenham plays a West Ham side that’s been dreadful defensively. But beware of the cracks in the Spurs foundation before placing your bet.
Aston Villa 5/1
Last season’s surprise inclusion in the top four is now 5-to-1 to be back there again at the end of this campaign. Villa have been sneaky spenders over the past few seasons so this isn’t exactly a Brighton-like side punching way above their financial weight. Just like with Spurs, there are lots of reasons to look at this Villa side and be inspired by those odds.
For starters, there is 20-year-old reserve forward Jhon Duran who has scored six goals in all competitions despite starting just a single match. There’s also the inspired use of big-money midfield signing Amadou Onana in set pieces, where he’s already bagged two goals. Then there’s the emergence of 22-year-old Morgan Rogers, a dribbly attacker who leads Villa in both carries into the penalty area and progressive carries. Oh, and that Ollie Watkins cat who bagged 19 Premier League goals last season just so happens to be hanging around still.
There’s certainly a picture to paint that Villa’s ceiling is a lot higher than these odds convey. Maybe Duran is the next global star. Or perhaps Rogers fulfills his Marcus Rashford-like potential in a way that makes United fans envious. Or even Onana follows in the footsteps of his countrymen and becomes a Marouane Felliani-esque wrecking ball every time a set-piece delivery is lofted into the box.
The problem with that type of optimism is those pesky predictive xG numbers tell us that Villa as a whole are running a bit hot right now. Duran’s four Premier League goals have come off just 2.1 xG worth of chances. Include the Champions League in that and the young Colombian has six goals off 2.2 xG. Then Rogers, for all his dribbling success, has created chances for teammates but hasn’t even created a goal’s worth of xG for himself (0.9 to be exact) in over 600 Premier League minutes. Onana, meanwhile, has already matched his previous season-high in goals scored.
Then there’s the underlying numbers for the team as a whole. Villa sits fifth on 14 points with a goal differential of plus-3 but their xG differential per 90 is less encouraging, placing them seventh in the league — just behind Bournemouth — at 0.43. Villa finished fourth last season despite also posting the seventh-best xG differential, but if it wasn’t for Chelsea’s combination of dysfunction and bad luck, Villa wouldn’t even be experiencing their Champions League ride this year.
Newcastle 5/1
Squint hard enough and you could maybe talk yourself into seeing Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Alexander Isak are a burgeoning young trio capable of lifting Newcastle back into the Champions League. The problem with that is none of these players are that young. Barnes is 26, Isak is 25 and even the wunderkind Gordon is 23.
On top of that, it’s hard to sell yourself on any of these players becoming a dominant, available superstar. Gordon ranks in the 62nd percentile in xG per 90 among wingers and attacking midfielders. While Barnes’ xG+xA per 90 of 0.81 in his 385 minutes this season put him in the Mo Salah-Phil Foden tier of wingers, his best mark over extended minutes throughout his career is more a “pretty good” mark 0.56.
Isak seems like the real deal, after scoring 21 goals last season with the underlying numbers to match, until you remember he has never played more than 2,340 minutes in a domestic campaign. To put that number in perspective, Salah’s lowest minutes total since he came to the Premier League is 2,534 in his age 31 season.
Given Newcastle’s aging and shoddy backline, a bet on the Magpies is a bet on health and elite production from three attackers without a track record of either of those things.
Manchester United 15/2
United have had an injury crisis on their hands, but no matter how you slice it, the trio of Harry Maguire, Jonny Evans and the husk of Casemiro have played a combined 636 minutes in the Premier League so far this season, which is a good representation of why United are in the bottom half of the table. Then there’s the fact that 32-year-old Christian Eriksen has started three matches, including an uninspired draw against Villa where he anchored a double pivot. Godspeed to anyone adventurous enough to take a less than 8-to-1 shot at this side sneaking into the top four.
(Photo of Son Heung-min and James Maddison: Marc Atkins / Getty Images)
