DETROIT — Since July 1, the Detroit Tigers are 35-25, tied with the Houston Astros for the best record in the American League. That’s how well they have played, how many things have gone right, how they have pushed their way back into the playoff conversation as the season enters its final weeks.
The Tigers entered Tuesday three games out of the final AL wild-card spot.
There are 18 games left on Detroit’s schedule, a long season boiling down to a frantic finish.
Here’s a look at what the Tigers need in their final 18 games to keep their playoff push alive:
Pitching must remain elite
The morning after the trade deadline, Scott Harris and A.J. Hinch met for breakfast and put their heads together to figure out just how in the world they were going to fill innings for the rest of the season.
Against the odds, the resulting strategy of bullpen games featuring bulk pitchers going four-plus innings turned into a huge success. Relief pitchers have largely stayed rested. A series of call-ups — Brant Hurter, Ty Madden, Bryan Sammons, Brenan Hanifee and Sean Guenther — held their own. The Tigers have a 2.85 team ERA since Aug. 1, the best in the major leagues. That is the prevailing reason for their push back into the race. Given some of the players who have filled these innings, it has been a miraculous six weeks of pitching. But for the Tigers to continue their late-season charge, there is no room for regression.
Detroit’s 2.85 ERA has outperformed its 3.46 FIP, though the Tigers still rank second in that metric since Aug. 1. The Tigers have done this despite averaging only 7.92 strikeouts per nine innings as a staff. Their .255 BABIP since Aug. 1 is the second lowest in the majors, a scary stat that suggests some bad luck could be on the horizon.
The Tigers, though, have ranked fifth in ground-ball rate (44.2 percent) and seventh in lowest average exit velocity (88.3 mph), and they hold the league’s fourth-lowest walk rate (6.9 percent) in that time. Those numbers explain why opponents have struggled to score against this pitching staff. The Tigers need those numbers to hold steady to turn a fun finish into a serious October run.
Young hitters must start contributing
For all the good we’ve seen, Detroit hitters still rank below league average with a 97 wRC+ since Aug. 1. Cut that split down to September, and the Tigers have performed 18 percent below league average, with a wRC+ of only 82.
So for every Parker Meadows miracle and Zach McKinstry contribution, the Tigers need more help to prove they are for real in the final 18 games.
Since joining the Tigers, third baseman Jace Jung is 14-for-60 with only three extra-base hits. Shortstop Trey Sweeney has provided three home runs and nine RBIs but is hitting only .236 with a .276 on-base percentage. Catcher Dillon Dingler is hitting only .141 through his first 64 MLB at-bats. As Riley Greene and Colt Keith show signs of heating up again, the Tigers will still need help from the young players thrust into large roles.
Since his recall from the minors, Spencer Torkelson has four homers and a .757 OPS, but he is 2-for-25 with 10 strikeouts over the past six games.
A lack of consistent run scoring could be the biggest obstacle between Detroit and the playoffs.
A lot of wins and a little good luck
The Tigers get three games against the lowly Colorado Rockies beginning Tuesday. They finish their season with three games at home against the disastrous Chicago White Sox, something that could very much bode in Detroit’s favor if the Tigers can hang around into the final days of the season. But even if they sweep those games, they will need to win the bulk of the 12 other games left on their schedule.
As of Monday afternoon, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 7.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, another reminder of how much ground they still have to make up with the clock running out. The Tigers happen to have the league’s third-easiest remaining strength of schedule despite six games against the Baltimore Orioles, three against the Tampa Bay Rays and three against the Kansas City Royals. Thanks largely to the White Sox and Rockies, their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .465.
FanGraphs picks the Tigers to finish with 82 wins, which would mean going 9-9 the rest of the way. As of Monday, FanGraphs picked the Minnesota Twins (76-68) to finish with 86 wins. So what would a finish that gets the Tigers into the playoffs look like? The Tigers would need to go 14-4 if the Twins finish the season as expected. That’s a high bar to clear unless the Twins, who have lost seven of their past 10, continue to struggle.
Minnesota’s remaining strength of schedule ranks 18th, with series against the Orioles, Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox as their biggest remaining challenges.
Any way you cut it, Detroit making the playoffs would mean outplaying the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners while also hoping for the Twins — or potentially the Royals — to falter.
The tiebreakers could work against the Tigers
The good news: Detroit has the tiebreaker advantage over fellow wild-card chasers Boston and Seattle. All three teams are three games behind Minnesota.
The bad news: The Tigers do not hold the tiebreaker advantage, based on head-to-head season record, against the Twins or Royals. Detroit went 6-7 against Minnesota and is 3-7 against Kansas City this season. Because there is no Game 163 scenario, the Tigers would need to finish ahead of the Royals and Twins — not tied — to make the playoffs.
In a way, that means their current three-game deficit is more like a four-game deficit as we enter the home stretch.
(Top photo: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
