Everyone’s thoughts are with Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa following yet another concussion sustained Thursday against the Buffalo Bills. As we all anxiously await word about his health, on a far less serious front, fantasy managers with rostered Dolphins stars like Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are also considering how to cope should Tua miss time. One small silver lining for them is that the fantasy production of those players in Tua’s potential absence may not be as bad as one might assume.
As The Athletic’s Brandon Funston points out, in 13 games with Tua under center in the 2022 season, Hill averaged 21.4 PPR points. In four games with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson, Hill averaged 15.7. It’s a significant dip — almost a six-point difference — but that 15.7 points-per-game mark would have made him a Top 10 wide receiver in 2022.
As for Jaylen Waddle, in 13 games with Tua, he averaged 16.8 PPR points. In the four games with Bridgewater and Thompson, he averaged 10.7. Again, we’re looking at about a six-point drop, but it represents about a 36% reduction in fantasy value compared to a roughly 27% drop in Hill’s production. In 2022, Waddle’s 10.7 PPR points mark would have put him in the backend of the WR3 class.
Fortunately for the Dolphins, the upcoming schedule suggests they should be able to run the ball effectively. The Dolphins don’t have an unfavorable rush defense matchup (defined as red-rated in my projection system’s terminology) until Week 10. They also have three green-rated rush defense matchups in the next five games (Miami is on a bye in Week 6). This is one of the most favorable rush defense schedules in the first half of the season, so it augurs well for a shift to the ground game.
The fact that Mike McDaniel is one of the most creative run-play callers in the league (something he learned as the run game coordinator while working for Kyle Shanahan) will also should fantasy managers with Miami running backs.
This play-calling talent shows up in the advanced metrics. Over the past two years (2022 and 2023) the Dolphins rank third in offensive rush EPA success (43.4 percent) on plays where the opposing team had 8+ defenders in the tackle box. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as McDaniel had to create inventive rush play calls in San Francisco to overcome this sort of thing all the time. The 49ers had the third-highest number of rushes with 8+ defenders in the box and still ranked seventh in offensive EPA rush success (40.8 percent) in that scenario during his tenure as run game/offensive coordinator (2017-2021).
Add this up and it suggests that Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright can still produce quality fantasy point totals even if Thompson is the Dolphins’ quarterback.
(Photo of Tyreek Hill: Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
