A.J. Preller sat in front of a laptop screen Monday at Petco Park, more than a week after the 2024 San Diego Padres walked off the field for the final time, and some of the emotions from his team’s postseason ouster were still fresh. The night before, the same Los Angeles Dodgers club that won consecutive elimination games in the National League Division Series advanced to the sport’s biggest stage.
“We obviously wish that we were playing baseball at this point in time,” said Preller, the Padres’ president of baseball operations and general manager. “We felt like we had a team that obviously was capable of playing until the very end. But overall, through this week and with a chance to reflect a little bit, obviously a very good season for our big-league team, for the organization.
“It’s pretty obvious right now something very special is going on in San Diego. The fans love this team, love this ballpark, and the city is just so excited. And I think for us, that’s where it stings the most. … I think from Day 1, I spoke about being on that big stage. That big stage is the World Series. And we’re not going to be content until we get there as an organization, but we’ve got a lot of people very motivated to build on this year.”
Improving on a largely successful 2024 will require recreating some of the electricity that carried the Padres through a second-half surge before an untimely October outage. A hungry fan base will supply some of the necessary push. But, a decade into Preller’s tenure, the heavy lifting remains squarely on the shoulders of the executive, his players and the organization he has assembled. Here are the biggest takeaways from Preller’s end-of-season Zoom call with reporters:
How much payroll flexibility is there?
The Padres, according to FanGraphs estimates, ended the season with a payroll of $169 million and a luxury-tax figure of $227 million — comfortably below this year’s $237 million tax threshold. “There’s a lot of benefit,” Preller said Monday, “in resetting” the franchise’s penalty level. The Padres incurred escalating penalties while exceeding the tax threshold in each of the past three seasons. But that shouldn’t be taken as a sign that the team will automatically look to spend beyond next year’s $241 million tax threshold.
“Ownership’s always been great here of having pretty clear guidelines of what it looks like,” Preller said. “I think the biggest thing I focus on right now … is just kind of knowing the landscape: Here’s the different possibilities. Here’s what’s going to be out there. Obviously, being open-minded to what different paths take us to from a payroll standpoint. The only thing I’ve seen repeatedly when I’ve been here, and I think we’ve demonstrated, is we want to win. We’re here to win a championship. I think we’re going to do it responsibly.”
That last word seems notable. The Padres in 2023, with owner Peter Seidler overseeing things, dropped a franchise-record $255 million on payroll and incurred a luxury-tax bill of nearly $40 million. Then Seidler died, Preller was all but forced to trade Juan Soto, and the GM slashed payroll by $86 million while fielding perhaps his best roster yet. Under the interim leadership of chairman Eric Kutsenda, the Padres were expected to annually be closer to $169 million than $255 million. The club’s results in 2024 amid relative austerity might only reinforce that expectation.
That’s not to say the Padres won’t spend. FanGraphs already has next year’s payroll estimate at $195 million and next year’s luxury-tax number at $231 million. That includes arbitration salaries to players such as Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Michael King. It does not include potential replacements for a rehabbing Joe Musgrove and pending free agents like Jurickson Profar, Kyle Higashioka and Ha-Seong Kim. If the Padres want to avoid paying the luxury tax in 2025, the budget could be a bit tight. Preller might have to get creative on the trade front again, and he certainly has proven himself capable in that respect.
And that’s not to say that the Padres will never venture into luxury-tax territory again. Still, it seemed noteworthy Monday that Preller used a certain word more than once.
“These are conversations that we’re going to get into over the course of the next couple of weeks,” Preller said. “Again, in general, when I sit down and we talk about it, it’s about winning. It’s about winning championships, doing it responsibly.
“But (ownership has) shown repeatedly since I’ve been here that we’re going to be open. And that’s all you can ask for at this point in time. I think we’ll see how the offseason presents itself.”
The statuses of Mike Shildt and Ruben Niebla
Preller did not provide much of an update on the Padres’ progress in terms of potentially re-signing the likes of Profar and Higashioka or possibly extending the likes of King, Arraez and Jackson Merrill. The team’s activity on those fronts, Preller said, “so far has been real baseline, some real basic communication with agents, just explaining, like, ‘Hey, we’re interested, and we’ll have some more conversations.’” More information could come to light around the general managers’ meetings in early November; teams will begin to more fully engage in trade discussions next month, giving the Padres a better idea of the different paths this offseason could take.
Preller did speak in slightly more detail about two key members of the organization: manager Mike Shildt, who is approaching the final year of a two-year deal, and pitching coach Ruben Niebla, whose contract is up this month.
“We just started those conversations in terms of myself and sitting down with Eric Kutsenda and (Padres CEO) Erik Greupner and others,” Preller said when asked about a potential extension for Shildt. “The motivation’s there to try to see if we can line up. And I know from Mike’s standpoint, he obviously enjoys it here, wants to be here, but I know his focus also is just go get better (as a team). And if you do that, then I think he has a lot of trust and faith, from an organization standpoint, that we’ll figure some things out there.”
Given his contract status, resolving Niebla’s situation could be an equally pressing priority. Niebla is known to be interested in one day becoming a major-league manager, and before promoting Shildt last offseason, Preller spoke informally with Niebla about that desire. In the meantime, the Padres would hate to lose Niebla’s services as a pitching coach.
“We have a great relationship, and I know he loves it here,” Preller said of the Calexico, Calif., native. “He’s capable of doing a lot. We’re hoping it’s with the Padres, and I feel confident he really loves the organization, loves it here, loves the city. And that’s conversations for the next couple weeks, and my guess is we’ll line up on something there.”
Preller added that he would like to retain the rest of a coaching staff that helped the Padres to the second-most wins in franchise history.
The rotation equation
On paper at least, Cease, King and Yu Darvish should give the Padres one of the better starting-pitching trios in the game. But Musgrove is expected to miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Pending free agent Martín Pérez is likely headed elsewhere after not pitching in the National League Division Series. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez showed promise in 2024 but were not relied upon down the stretch. Jhony Brito was hurt for most of the second half, and Adrian Morejon finally stayed healthy as a member of the bullpen.
So, the Padres’ list of roster needs begins with the rotation.
“It’s a big loss, no doubt, to not have somebody like Joe all year long on the mound,” Preller said. “So, we’re gonna look a lot of different places. … We’ve done it over the last few years. You look at (Michael) Wacha, (Seth) Lugo a couple years ago, Nick Martinez at different points in time. And obviously, this year bringing in a Michael King, bringing in a Dylan Cease.”
Starting-pitching prospects who could be in big-league camp next spring include Henry Baez, Omar Cruz and Isaiah Lowe. The Padres, though, traded their most prominent minor-league arms in July, parting with Robby Snelling, Dylan Lesko and Adam Mazur. All three of those pitchers struggled to varying extents in 2024, but organizational depth will be an issue Preller must address.
“That will take a little bit of time to replenish, but honestly, there’s a group of guys that are kind of starting to progress up the system, Double A, Triple A, that’ll be in big-league camp and start and get some looks that we feel really good about,” he said.
Who starts at shortstop?
It could be Xander Bogaerts next season. The veteran infielder switched to second base last spring, then returned to his former position in September after Kim sustained a torn labrum. Bogaerts, at least, appears to be a likelier option than former shortstops Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. “You know, they’re really good in what they do in the outfield,” Preller said.
But on Monday, Preller acknowledged that Kim is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day after undergoing shoulder surgery. Team officials, meanwhile, are not especially optimistic that Kim will pick up his end of an $8 million mutual option. The chances of the clubhouse favorite signing elsewhere seem robust, especially since Kim hired Scott Boras as his agent.
It was against this backdrop that Preller received a question about who he expected to handle the infield’s most important position. He did not initially mention Bogaerts.
“We’ve got a lot of athletes on the field and different possibilities, but we haven’t really gotten too much into that. I think we’ll work through that over the next couple weeks,” Preller said. “Last year, it took us a little bit to get there, because we were trying to work through the roster. Soto, Ha-Seong’s situation, some different trade possibilities. I would think we’ll be able to have an earlier idea about how things are gonna unfold and be able to go to the players a little bit earlier (this offseason) and talk about it.”
Preller did go on to field a question about Bogaerts’ struggles in 2024. Bogaerts, whom Preller signed two years ago to an 11-year, $280 million contract, hit .264/.307/.381 and missed several weeks with a fractured shoulder. The Padres have no choice but to hope that, in his age-32 season, Bogaerts will not continue down the path of becoming a payroll albatross.
“We’ll talk to him about (Bogaerts’ defensive position), but yeah, if we’re going to be a playoff team next year, my guess is … Xander has an All-Star-type season, and I feel very confident he’s capable of doing that,” Preller said. “Part of it was the injury, but I think he’s going to look at this year and make some adjustments to make sure that he comes back next year and he’s back as one of the top players in the game.”
(Top photo of Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr.: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
