Once a week for an hour during the Premier League season, The Athletic’s Newcastle United subscribers have the opportunity to ask us for our views and insight into what’s happening at their club.
Here, we have pulled together some of their questions and our answers from Monday’s edition of our Inside Newcastle live Q&A, which included queries about whether the club have the funds to sign both a right-winger and a centre-back in January, head coach Eddie Howe’s job security and whether Bruno Guimaraes should have been given the captaincy.
Want to ask a question on anything Newcastle-related? Chris Waugh will be back on Monday, November 4, for another session, as he is away next week.
There is a direct correlation between the absence of Sean Longstaff in the starting XI and the poor periods of form and/or performance. I’ve never heard anyone put this to Howe — Ross T
Chris Waugh: It is an intriguing observation, Ross. Since Howe took charge, Newcastle’s Premier League win record is 53.6 per cent with Longstaff starting (69 games) and 38.1 per cent when he does not (42 matches). Their points-per-game return (1.9 to 1.4), goals for (2.0 to 1.3) and goals against (1.1 to 1.5) are all better when Longstaff starts, while their loss ratio with the Geordie in the XI is 20.3 per cent with him and 38.1 per cent without him.
Longstaff started the first four league matches this season, when Newcastle were unbeaten (three wins and a draw), but he has been on the bench for the four since, none of which they have won (two losses, two draws).
There does appear to be at least some correlation, if not necessarily a linear one, between Longstaff starting and Newcastle’s results improving and it is something those inside the club are aware of. There are limitations to the 26-year-old’s game. He is not as physically dominant as Joelinton. He does not possess Joe Willock’s running power, nor the technical quality of Guimaraes or Sandro Tonali. But he provides balance to the midfield. His ability to cover ground, provide defensive solidity down the right, and his knack of making underlapping runs into the box are invaluable.
Howe really appreciates what he brings. There is also a recognition that, aside from closing a game out, Longstaff is not an ideal substitute to have in terms of having someone who can come on to positively affect matches. He is better suited to getting Newcastle into a solid position, then being replaced by more of an offensive-minded midfielder if change is required.
As Matty Longstaff, Sean’s younger brother, insisted, the academy graduate is underappreciated by some supporters and often receives undue criticism. He is not the most thrilling performer in Newcastle’s squad, but he is consistent and he is dependable. With the Joelinton-Guimaraes-Tonali axis yet to really spark, restoring Longstaff to the XI is something Howe is definitely considering.
Do you think the appointment of Bruno as captain was a mistake? No doubt he’s a wonderful player but he is very ego-centric and I wonder if this is to the detriment of the rest of the team — Sepand L
Waugh: At the time, I was surprised and somewhat sceptical. I understood why Howe appointed Guimaraes as captain, especially given the continued uncertainty over Kieran Trippier’s future and fitness, and it was important to have someone wearing the armband who was pretty much guaranteed to start games. But, as consistent a performer as Guimaraes is, I am not sure he is necessarily a natural captain, in the manner of Trippier, Dan Burn or Jamaal Lascelles.
Still, in a practical sense, out of the squad’s six-player “leadership team”, Guimaraes is the only one who, when everyone is fit, is a certainty to start. Lascelles is not first choice, Jacob Murphy has started six of the matches but Newcastle want to sign a right-winger, Callum Wilson is yet to play this season due to injury and is behind Alexander Isak, while Tino Livramento began the campaign ahead of Trippier in the pecking order. For now, Burn is pretty much guaranteed his place but, when Sven Botman returns from injury, that may not be the case.
Yet there was also a significance attached to Howe handing Guimaraes the armband. The Brazilian had been expected to receive big-money transfer offers in the summer, yet they did not arrive and, while Newcastle were delighted about that, perhaps the midfielder’s confidence was dented. Awarding Guimaraes greater responsibility was supposed to empower him further.
His captaincy remains a work in progress, and not only because he seems incapable of winning the coin-toss at St James’ Park. Rather than being egocentric, I would describe Guimaraes as extremely emotional. Someone like Burn is calmer, more experienced and level-headed.
Howe’s calculation was that Burn and Trippier could still display their natural leadership characteristics regardless of whether they were actually wearing the armband, and that Guimaraes would be elevated further by it. As of yet, while the former is true, the latter remains debatable.
The issue is that stripping Guimaraes of the captaincy could have a far more negative effect, so I do not see this call — which was made by Howe — being reversed.
Do we have enough headroom to sign Marc Guehi and a right-winger in January? — Harry B
Waugh: The short answer is: almost certainly not. But that is dependent upon several variables, including the fee Newcastle would actually pay Crystal Palace for centre-back Guehi, the cost of any right-winger who comes in and whether any headroom in their profit and sustainability rules (PSR) calculation was generated by player sales.
The early indications are that, while Newcastle hope to be active in the winter window — and are preparing as if that’s going to be the case, with their recruitment team continuing to make regular first-hand checks on players — there is no guarantee they will be. Even given Paul Mitchell’s challenging first window as sporting director this summer, Newcastle will not make signings for the sake of it, they will only make additions if they believe it makes long-term business sense.
With Botman due back before Christmas, a centre-back is unlikely to be the immediate priority it was in the summer. Newcastle may still move for Guehi if they feel the deal makes financial sense, but it is not something they will necessarily have to do.
As things stand, right-winger is taking precedence over other positions, given neither Murphy nor Miguel Almiron has managed to nail down that role. Newcastle have not strengthened there since the 2021 takeover and it is now having a detrimental effect. Nottingham Forest’s Anthony Elanga remains of interest, but additional checks have been made on wingers based across Europe.
Despite the perception that Newcastle have £60million to £70m ($78.1m-$91m) spare given their failure to land Guehi in the summer, their rolling PSR balance means any purchase they make may need to be offset by sales.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely Newcastle will sign both a right-winger and a centre-back in January. Chances are it will be one or the other — probably the former — unless injuries and form lead to a dramatic change of approach.
I want Howe to be successful. But for that to happen, ownership needs to be 100 per cent behind him, and so do the players. This summer was hugely disruptive. Do you think both of these key elements are still in Howe’s favour? — James E
Waugh: While I do think the Newcastle hierarchy support Howe and want him to be successful, I do feel there has been — or at least there has been the perception of — a weathering of his authority. The exits of Amanda Staveley and Mehrdad Ghodoussi undoubtedly affected Howe, removing some of the direct contact he had with those at boardroom level. That does not necessarily have to be an entirely negative shift in dynamic, but Howe was evidently unsettled by it. Whether rightly or wrongly, he felt the upheaval had the potential to impact on his own position.
Newcastle’s failure to strengthen was not because the club’s hierarchy had suddenly decided they were no longer going to back Howe, it was primarily due to their difficult PSR position and also Mitchell only arriving in the middle of the summer.
Regardless, it is Howe whose job is more directly affected by Newcastle’s poor window — and the failure to materially strengthen his first XI for a year. The after-effects of the summer window are still being felt, with some players who were unsettled by potential moves away still attempting to rediscover their top levels, others who recognise they are no longer part of the long-term plans not offering what they were previously, and a general lack of refreshment and re-energising of the squad, given there have been no new arrivals to drive competition.
Mitchell, Darren Eales and Jamie Reuben are all desperate for Howe to succeed — and it would be costly for the club to have to dispense with him, especially PSR-wise — but there has to be some recognition that, following the summer, the head coach has been left in a challenging position, relative to achieving the stated ambition of qualifying for Europe.
What do you (realistically) think it would take for Howe to be under real pressure of losing his job? — Rob M
Waugh: It would be purely speculative of me to put any barometer on that, because there has been no indication that he is under any pressure, or will be soon if X, Y or Z happens.
Newcastle have a challenging run of fixtures coming up and, while Chelsea away and Arsenal at home are important matches in the Premier League, the Carabao Cup last-16 tie at home against the former next Wednesday is the one which I believe has the potential to sway the narrative. Newcastle reached the final of that competition two seasons ago and then the quarter-finals last year and another deep run can generate momentum and belief.
Newcastle could stall in the league and still launch a second-half-of-the-campaign revival, but exiting the cups early would be damaging.
Nevertheless, the job Howe has done is massively appreciated by the hierarchy, and Eales and Mitchell have stressed how much they want the head coach to remain long-term. Obviously, results will dictate that but there also has to be an acknowledgement of the failure to strengthen and the impact that has had.
Howe needs positive results, but the kneejerk reaction from some quarters is premature. There is no sense of panic inside St James’ Park, even if there is a keen desire for wins to arrive quickly.
What is going on with Willock? — Michael R
Waugh: Willock has been disappointing, especially so when he came on against Brighton, and it is a massive frustration for many at the club because, when he is on form, he brings unique qualities to the midfield. Nobody else can carry possession in the dynamic way Willock does and, without him, Newcastle appear more pedestrian and predictable.
Aside from his excellent second-half cameo at Wolves last month, when Willock created more chances than anyone else and Howe essentially felt forced to start him at Fulham a week later because of that, he has consistently failed to positively affect matches. Howe even hooked him at half-time that day at Craven Cottage and admitted he got that selection wrong, so ineffectual was the 25-year-old.
While members of the coaching staff have expected more from Willock, there is also an appreciation regarding his lack of minutes. Since the start of last season, he has only started six league games — and he is a player who thrives on rhythm and regular football. He is no longer actually injured, but his body is still returning to peak fitness, which he will only attain once he starts regularly and, right now, his performances do not warrant a place.
By next summer, Willock will have two years left on his contract, so this is an important season for him. He needs to rediscover some form to prove he warrants a place in Newcastle’s long-term plans, otherwise they may feel they have to at least consider the possibility of selling him.
Willock deserves time and understanding as he tries to return to his top levels, but he also has to offer the team more than he has recently. When Howe publicly admitted that his substitutions did not have the desired effect against Brighton on Saturday, Willock was one of the players he was alluding to.
That message needs to be absorbed and then acted upon.
(Top photo: George Wood via Getty Images)
