It was two Tuesdays ago that New York Jets owner Woody Johnson abruptly fired head coach Robert Saleh and replaced him in the interim with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. Despite that move, the Jets’ ship continues to sink.
Last Tuesday, Johnson pushed through a trade to acquire star wide receiver Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders, a move that was supposed to invigorate a struggling offense and help get the Jets back on track. That same day, Johnson was asked at the owners meetings in Atlanta if the then–2-4 Jets’ season was even “salvageable.”
“Salvageable?” Johnson said. “We’re going to kick … you can fill the word in.”
(Narrator: They did not kick … fill the word in.)
Instead, the Jets’ road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night was one of the most embarrassing performances in recent memory, considering what was at stake and all that Johnson has invested in a playoff run this year. They went up 15-6 before a bad Aaron Rodgers interception toward the end of the first half was followed by 31 unanswered Steelers points and a loss that has left many wondering how a team that had so much promise this summer has already sunk so low.
The Jets are 2-5. The season is not over yet (at least not in the literal sense), even if it feels like it. The Jets can — and probably will — beat a terrible New England Patriots team on Sunday. After a quick turnaround for a Thursday night game against the Houston Texans, the schedule looks a little easier on paper. But the odds that the Jets go, at minimum, 7-3 over the final 10 games to finish 9-8 (the Jets haven’t gone 7-3 over any 10-game stretch since starting 8-2 in 2010) and, maybe, sneak into the playoffs feels like an unlikely expectation for a team that seems to have the same issues every week. The Jets commit too many penalties, the defense is susceptible to the run, the offensive line is struggling, and the receivers are too often not on the same page with the 40-year-old quarterback who seems to be losing the battle with Father Time.
“We got to somehow keep the belief in the locker room and start our run,” Rodgers said on Sunday. “Can’t win 10 in a row unless you win the first one.”
If the Jets keep going down this path of despair and miss the playoffs for the 14th consecutive season, it feels like there’s a reckoning coming. This team, and organization, would have a new look in 2025. It’s safe to assume that Johnson won’t run it back.
There are plenty of implications to consider.
The owner
No, this is not to imply Johnson is going anywhere. But something to keep in mind: Johnson left the team for four years from 2016-20 to be part of the Trump administration, as the ambassador to the United Kingdom. Johnson’s brother, vice chairman Christopher Johnson, took over in the interim. It was during that stretch that Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas were hired.
If Trump wins the presidential election in a few weeks — coincidentally, the NFL trade deadline and Election Day both fall on Nov. 5 — it’s possible that Johnson would join his administration in some capacity for a second time.
The head coach
Whether Ulbrich leads the Jets on an improbable postseason run or not, the Jets will be conducting a coaching search this offseason. Even if Ulbrich did engineer a turnaround, by league rules he can’t simply be handed the job since the Jets would have to interview minority candidates to comply with the Rooney Rule. But if Ulbrich does somehow pull the Jets out of this hole and snap the postseason skid, he will have certainly earned the full-time job.
If the Jets fall short of the postseason, expect Johnson to hire someone currently outside of the organization. There are some obvious candidates with experience (Mike Vrabel tops the list) and other up-and-coming coaches who should be interviewed (like Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson). It wouldn’t be surprising if Woody Johnson prefers an offensive-minded coach considering all their issues on that side of the ball in recent years, though that didn’t exactly pan out when he hired Adam Gase in 2019.
One name you can cross off: Bill Belichick, the Jets’ longtime nemesis who has gone out of his way to mock Johnson in recent weeks. First, after the Saleh firing, Belichick went on the ManningCast and said: “That’s kind of what it’s been there at the Jets — barely won over 30 percent in the last 10 years. The owner being the owner, just, ready, fire, aim.” Appearing on “The Pat McAfee Show” Monday, Belichick added: “The Jets are the Jets and Woody is Woody.”
The general manager
If the Jets miss the postseason, Douglas will have survived his entire six-year contract without sniffing the postseason. Johnson has declared that this the most talented roster he’s overseen in 25 years as Jets owner — a statement that implied he was blaming Saleh more for the Jets’ struggles than Douglas, who built the roster.
The talent on the roster is undeniable, and Douglas deserves credit for some shrewd moves: the 2022 draft class, claiming Quincy Williams and John Franklin-Myers off waivers, signing D.J. Reed and some other mid-tier free agents he’s hit on over the years. But Douglas probably isn’t being criticized enough for the Jets’ current issues. This feels like a roster of talented players, but not a team. Even worse, it took Douglas until his sixth year to build an even average offensive line, and he’s taken too many swings on aging linemen — most recently Duane Brown and Tyron Smith — that didn’t pan out.
The Jets’ defensive line was once the strength of the team, yet this year it’s turned into a weakness. Nobody outside of defensive end Will McDonald (a team-high eight sacks) has performed on a consistent basis, including defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.
Some free-agent signings were misses (Brown, Smith, Dalvin Cook, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, C.J. Uzomah, Mecole Hardman, Laken Tomlinson). But Douglas’s biggest miss was drafting quarterback Zach Wilson second overall in 2021 — though it’s not as if the rest of the quarterbacks from the 2021 class have panned out. Still, Douglas has lasted much longer than most decision-makers do after whiffing on a No. 2 overall pick.
In short: If the Jets miss the playoffs Douglas is gone; his contract is up either way, so Johnson would have to re-sign him to a new deal if he was going to return. The question is: How appealing would this job be for prospective GM candidates?
The quarterback
Rodgers has said he plans to play for the Jets beyond this season, though it’s unclear how much that calculus would change if he (and the team) continue down the path they’re on. Surely, Rodgers didn’t envision his first real season as a Jet going this way; 2-5 is the worst record he’s ever had through seven games.
And it’s not as if Rodgers is playing his best football. He’s thrown seven interceptions, tied for the second-most in the NFL. He ranks 28th in completion percentage (61.5) among qualifying quarterbacks and 24th in EPA per pass attempt. There have been 50 quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards in a game since the start of the 2022 season, a list that includes Zach Wilson, Mike White, Desmond Ridder, Mac Jones, Will Levis, Bryce Young and Jarrett Stidham — but not Rodgers.
Whether Rodgers wants to keep playing or not, it’s conceivable that Johnson (or a new general manager) might prefer to bring in a new quarterback, possibly with their first-round pick (according to Tankathon, the Jets would have the fifth overall pick if the season ended today). Rodgers has a $23.5 million cap hit in 2025. According to Over the Cap, if the Jets were to cut him, trade him, or he retired post-June 1, the team would incur a $14 million dead-cap charge in each of the next three seasons (because of some bonus money spread out over future years) while saving $9.5 million in cap space.
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The 2022 draft class
The honeymoon for the Jets’ starry 2022 draft class is over. The trio of cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall have been met with more criticism — from fans and media alike — than ever before. (Defensive end Jermaine Johnson, another headliner from that class, tore his Achilles in Week 2.)
All three have played at high levels at times in 2024, but not consistently. Wilson had a costly drop that deflected into an interception against the Steelers and struggled to find a connection with Rodgers over the season’s first four games. Outside of a breakout Bills game in Week 6 (113 rushing yards on 18 carries), Hall has struggled on the ground, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus has Gardner graded 54th of 115 cornerbacks to play at least 100 snaps, and he’s allowing 15.3 yards per reception in coverage, which ranks 103rd. He’s been called for defensive pass interference four times.
This draft class is eligible to sign contract extensions for the first time this offseason. Gardner feels like the one most likely to sign a new deal. Will Johnson be willing to dole out significant contracts to Hall, Wilson and/or Johnson too?
The free agents
The most notable Jets players set to hit free agency after this season include Reed, tight end Tyler Conklin, defensive end Haason Reddick, offensive tackle Morgan Moses, linebacker Jamien Sherwood and safety Tony Adams.
Of that group, Adams and Sherwood feel like safe bets to return. The Jets should re-sign Reed, who had been playing at a Pro Bowl level before a groin injury against the Bills. But he’ll be seeking a significant payday; the Jets haven’t offered him any extension and Reed intends to explore free agency.
There are other players who could be on the way out as a result of this season’s struggles, whether by their choice or by Douglas’s (or a future general manager’s) preference. Linebacker C.J. Mosley is a team captain and has been a crucial piece of the Jets’ defensive resurgence, but he’s transitioned into a part-time role in recent weeks in favor of the younger — and more athletic — Sherwood. Davante Adams might not want to stick around if Rodgers winds up leaving or retiring. The Jets would likely release Allen Lazard for cap savings in that scenario (they might do that even if Rodgers returns).
That’s all to say: If the Jets fail to turn their season around, things will look a lot different around Florham Park in 2025.
(Top photo: Kevin Sabitus / AP)
