Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Tank Bigsby is No. 2 and the Jaguars seem to want to run way more than pass, though the upcoming opponents may not cooperate with that plan.
The sneaky move is to FAAB D’Ernest Johnson (No. 29 in Week 7) while Travis Etienne Jr. is “week-to-week.” You’re leaning into more passing-heavy game scripts and, thus, more market share and more valuable targets for Johnson. I expect RB24 in PPR scoring for Johnson if Etienne is out.
Tyler Goodson may have some more life given Jonathan Taylor’s ankle injury, or maybe not. That seems like a Friday story. Goodson is the No. 1 guy in Taylor’s absence, it’s safe to say. All Taylor managers should roster Goodson.
Kareem Hunt is running it back like it’s 2017 (No. 6). He’s not very good, but he’s effective on the goal line, where the Chiefs spend a lot of time and where Patrick Mahomes has mostly stopped throwing TDs.
Alexander Mattison, our founding father, is at the head of the table in the Raiders passing game. His roster rate is barely over 50%. Zamir White can be dropped. You don’t want a Raiders handcuff.
Chase Brown has clearly supplanted Zack Moss as the No. 1 in Cincy. That’s unlikely to change.
De’Von Achane gets a functional offense back and is at the head of the committee, but it is a three-headed monster. I’d be trying to get Jaylen Wright off of waivers on the chance that Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy and Achane does not. It’s a free roll. Even if Raheem Mostert gets hurt, Wright will be playable.
As expected, James Cook was really hurt by Ray Davis.
Sidebar on Ray Davies — true story: Davies felt the band needed a lead singer. Auditions were at the drummer’s mom’s house. The mom said nothing about any of the singers trying out except one, stating, “If you hire that guy, you’ll have to rehearse somewhere else.” And that’s why Rod Stewart wasn’t in The Kinks.
Anyway, Cook goes from a low end RB1 to a low end RB2.
Rachaad White led the Tampa Bay three-headed committee, but the Bucs offense has taken a massive hit. I lean toward this being bad for White. I still think Bucky Irving is better, but White produced and we don’t really have much time for developing stories now. My big takeaway: trade White.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. seems to have supplanted Devin Singletary, but there were game script and possible Singletary injury issues. Tracy should be rostered, but I can’t say to prioritize him yet.
Receiver Targets
I know Matthew Stafford has stopped throwing TDs, but the point of this column is to always expect regression to average — positively or negatively — when it comes to team stats like TD passes and pass attempts. So I have to advise picking up the No. 1 receiver of the week, Tutu Atwell. He’ll cost nothing, and The Athletic has reported that the Rams are trying to trade Cooper Kupp. There are also reports that Stafford could be traded to the Vikings. Sam Darnold’s four games out of the first six with a YPA of 8.0+ is the second most in NFL history (2011 Aaron Rodgers).
The Rams have called multiple teams about trading former Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp sources tell @mikesilver, @jourdanrodrigue, and me.
The Rams have indicated a willingness to take on some of the ‘24 salary and are seeking a 2nd round pick.— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) October 22, 2024
I hit on Ja’Tavion Sanders last week, and this week he was the No. 1 TE in the model with a 33.3% share. Yes, only 18 attempts. Yes, the QB situation is terrible. That said, the tight end is the easiest guy to throw to and Sanders averaged 10.2 yards on his six targets. Again, he’ll cost nothing, or next to it. I bet you can get the No. 1 WR (Atwell) and No. 1 TE in the model this week for $2 of FAAB combined.
Brock Bowers is golden at No. 6. This is likely sustainable in the post-Davante Adams world in Las Vegas.
I said George Pickens would be boosted by Russell Wilson, and that was the case. Pickens is a Top 20 (maybe Top 10) WR for the rest of the season. He’s actually a buy high.
Romeo Doubs at No. 10 is crazy considering his recent suspension for detrimental conduct. The squeaky wheel gets greased, I guess. He’s actually the only Green Bay WR with a playable floor right now. That’s a crazy statement, I know. True, nonetheless.
Xavier Worthy was No. 11. He was not worthy of that. But it happened and JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) is week-to-week now.
At over 20% market share, George Kittle is a league winner, and it could be closer to 30% going forward. He’s day-to-day with a foot sprain (meaning likely not serious, but it’s the Niners, so you never know).
Given Deebo Samuel’s pneumonia and Brandon Aiyuk’s ACL tear, you need to make a waiver-wire call on either Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings. I hate rookies who are coming off injuries (Pearsall was shot), so it’s Jennings for me by a mile.
Amari Cooper was super productive without even being fully integrated — No. 62 in the model. I bet he’s in the Top 20 this week. Cooper is also a buy high.
Another sneaky pickup is Jalen McMillan, who was No. 57 but who now is likely to get the valuable slot role in the Tampa Bay offense. He’d be my No. 1 FAAB add. I know it’s not sustainable given the latest injuries, but Baker Mayfield is the No. 2 scoring fantasy QB.
If you need a TE, Cade Otton is the other way to play the Tampa Bay injuries. I expect a bevy of Otton targets and he’s always on the field. He could be this year’s Trey McBride as a second-half stud.
David Njoku is a buy high too. I say this seriously. Pay the man. Njoku is likely a league winner with Jameis Winston at QB, and I’d wager he’ll almost certainly be the team’s No. 1-targeted weapon.
Jonnu Smith was extremely productive and seems to have carved out a role. He now gets Tagovailoa back. This is the best I’ve felt about the TE class all year. Things just have broken right of late. Life is a zero-sum game.
(Top photo of Romeo Doubs: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
