Two and half seasons have passed since Lincoln Riley’s stunning departure from Oklahoma for USC rocked college football’s coaching carousel, and neither traditional power seems to be in a better place than they were when he left Norman.
Riley’s Trojans (3-4) have lost three straight Big Ten games and four of their first five as a league member, squandering leads and finding a variety of ways to lose in the margins. They’ll try to get right Friday night at the Coliseum against Rutgers.
“We’ve had some really unfortunate breaks in several of these but we haven’t been good enough to overcome those,” Riley told reporters earlier this week. “That’s what we’re building to become, obviously.”
He is 22-12 at USC.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables, whom Sooners fans embraced as they bid good riddance to Riley and his .846 winning percentage over five seasons, is finding life in a new league every bit as difficult. The Sooners (4-3) have lost three of four in the SEC, including by a combined score of 69-12 the last two times out, and head to No. 18 Ole Miss on Saturday with an offense that ranks 132nd out of 134 FBS teams in yards per play (4.31).
“What we put out there today as a football team is nothing remotely close to the standard here at the University of Oklahoma,” Venables told reporters after the Sooners lost at home 35-9 to South Carolina on Saturday. He is 20-13 at OU.
The last season in which USC and Oklahoma both failed to receive a bowl bid was 1997. That outcome is very much on the table this fall. In Year 3 under their current regimes, both programs have Year 1 vibes.
“Anything we see that’s not functioning at a high level or heading that way, we’re aggressively addressing it, and we’ll do anything to continue to plug these leaks,” Riley said.
So which blue blood is more likely to climb out of this sinkhole of a season with their current coach?
What’s wrong at USC
You know things are not going well with that “home-run hire” when comparisons between the new guy’s record and the record of the guy he replaced start circulating. Clay Helton’s record through 34 games in his first three full seasons as USC coach: 25-9.
Riley tried to prepare USC fans for a rough Big Ten debut before the season, talking about how far the program was behind its national power peers when he arrived. Thanks to quarterback Caleb Williams and some fortunate turnover luck, he was able to paper over the flaws in his first year and nearly won the Pac-12 and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The turnover luck ran out in 2023, and Williams was good enough to get USC to 7-5. A bowl victory with Miller Moss at quarterback gave some hope for 2024, despite Riley’s warnings.
Riley revamped his defensive staff in the offseason — you can’t blame former coordinator Alex Grinch anymore — and that side of the ball has been better in 2024, though the Trojans’ lack of depth is starting to undercut the improvement.
The scary part about USC’s current issues? It’s not just the defense. The offensive line might be its biggest weakness. The special teams units are, yet again, an issue, as is a propensity to pick up penalties in crucial spots.
No team in the country goes from seemingly in control of a game to crisis mode as quickly and frequently as USC.
At least Riley can sell to Trojans fans that his team is close after four losses by a total of 14 points — if that’s any consolation.
What’s wrong at Oklahoma
Sooners fans were more than happy to blame Riley for Venables’ first team finishing 6-7, especially after Oklahoma rebounded to 10-3 last year, its last in the Big 12.
Now the program is rapidly descending into territory where the comparisons for Venables are particularly problematic.The last time Oklahoma finished a regular-season below .500 was 1998, the final of three losing seasons under John Blake. The Blake era was the nadir of the Sooners’ post-Barry Switzer swoon, producing 12 wins in 34 games. Venables is currently presiding over an Oklahoma offense averaging 288 yards per game. The Sooners haven’t averaged fewer than 300 yards per game in a season since 1998.
Somebody had to pay for that, and on Sunday that turned out to be first-year offensive coordinator Seth Littrell, who replaced Jeff Lebby when he became head coach at Mississippi State.
Venables tried to build a patchwork offensive line through the portal this season, and it has been a disaster that could cost him not one but two blue-chip quarterback recruits. The Sooners are going back to former five-star Jackson Arnold this week as the starter after four-star freshman Michael Hawkins failed to provide anything more than a temporary flicker rather than a spark. Who knows whether either quarterback will sign up for another season in Norman. The fact that Dillon Gabriel, last year’s starter, is currently leading the No. 1 team in the country at Oregon has only added to the bad optics.
Like USC, injuries have exacerbated the Sooners’ problems. OU’s receiver room in particular has been wrecked.
For Oklahoma fans, who for years watched Riley’s high-powered, Heisman-making offenses be undermined by porous defenses, this season must feel like a twisted joke. Venables, the former Clemson and Oklahoma defensive coordinator, has brought them the stingy defense they pined for, but now the offense can barely cross midfield.
Not going anywhere(?)
Let’s be clear on this point first: It is highly unlikely — though maybe not completely out of the question, considering the record-level shortage of patience throughout college football — that either USC or Oklahoma would make a coaching change this year. If for no other reason than it would cost a fortune.
Because even experienced, respected athletic directors, like Oklahoma’s Joe Castiglione, seem incapable of resisting the urge to hand out unnecessary contract extensions, Venables was given a new deal after the Sooners’ 10-3 finish in 2023. The new contract pays Venables more than $8 million annually, runs through 2029 and, according to USA Today, has a buyout on Dec. 1 of $44.8 million.
Because USC is a private school, Riley’s contract is not publicly available. USA Today, citing the school’s latest tax documents, reported he was paid a little over $10 million last year, making him the fourth-highest paid coach in the country.
It has been reported that Riley received a 10-year deal when he made the move. While that might seem like a massive overcommitment now, it’s pretty much in line with the megadeals that have been handed out in recent years to successful coaches such as LSU’s Brian Kelly and Penn State’s James Franklin. Safe to presume USC would owe Riley — conservatively — upwards of $75 million if it moved on from him this year.
Texas A&M didn’t just raise the bar on contract buyouts when it agreed to pay $76.8 million to fire Jimbo Fisher last year — the Aggies shot the bar into the sun. Still, we shouldn’t expect others to follow their lead. It should also be noted A&M gave Fisher six years to figure it out, twice as long as Riley and Venables have been at their current schools.
Fan patience
Sooners fans rallied around Venables simply because he wasn’t Riley, but this is a group that was growing weary of Bob Stoops and Riley only winning double-digit games and Big 12 titles. There won’t be much tolerance for mediocrity, no matter how much tougher the SEC is than the Big 12.
Oklahoma fans accused Riley of fleeing to the West Coast to avoid the Sooners’ move to the SEC and celebrated the karma of USC almost immediately picking up and moving to the Big Ten. As OU flails, Sooners fans have at least been able to take solace in Riley’s struggles seeming to validate what they viewed as his shortcomings: culture building, attention to detail and a generally inability to instill toughness.
USC certainly hasn’t looked Big Ten-ready. On the bright side for USC fans, their new conference provides a few more soft landings than the SEC. Of course, Minnesota and Maryland were supposed to be two of those, and instead the Trojans have landed with a thud.
Playing in Riley’s favor? USC football has been mismanaged for so long that there should be some acknowledgement from fans and supporters that the Trojans are still playing catch-up with the programs they view as peers.
Is there help on the way?
Maybe? The Sooners signed the eighth-ranked high school recruiting class in 2024, according to 247Sports. It included five offensive linemen, only one a four-star or better.
Their 2025 class currently sits at No. 11, right behind USC at No. 10. The Sooners’ two highest-rated committed prospects are offensive linemen from Texas, and Venables is still working to add more.
As for USC, the Trojans had the No. 17 class last year and seemed like they could be on their way to a top-five-ish finish in 2025 before a couple of five-star decommitments this summer.
Maybe more worrisome, Riley and USC have been unable to protect their fertile backyard. Only three of California’s top 50 recruits in the Class of 2025 are committed to the Trojans.
Who’s better off?
What do they say about misery loving company?
Venables seems to understand the mission at Oklahoma, but getting the roster where it needs to be and the right offensive coordinator in place quickly enough to keep his job long-term could be difficult.
This now looks like a fairly big project, and the Sooners’ schedule won’t be any less daunting next year. Not exactly ideal conditions for a big turnaround.
Riley has a track record of being able to win at a high level and, it seems, more room to grow. Though it should be noted: Venables is playing for the athletic director who hired him. Riley is not.
If Riley and Venables were stocks, we wouldn’t recommend investing in either, but if forced to choose one, Riley seems like the better bet to bounce back from the abyss.
(Top photos: Michael Owens, Ronald Cortes / Getty Images)
