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Fernando Valenzuela has passed away. Plus: we compare the World Series pitching staffs, and we already know one player who’s definitely getting a ring this year. I’m Levi Weaver; Ken Rosenthal is back tomorrow. Welcome to The Windup!
RIP: Fernando Valenzuela — 1960-2024
When Fernando Valenzuela arrived, he seemed to be ahead of schedule. He debuted in 1980 as a 19-year-old phenom. A year later, as a 20-year-old All-Star rookie, “Fernandomania” became a cultural phenomenon, as the southpaw went 13-7 with a 2.48 ERA, delighting the Chavez Ravine faithful with his look-to-the-sky delivery and bedeviling screwball.
Until this year, 1981 had been the last time the Dodgers faced the Yankees in the World Series. After New York jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the series, Valenzuela saved the season in Game 3 with a complete-game win. (Today is that game’s 43rd anniversary, in fact.) The Dodgers didn’t lose again after that.
Valenzuela went 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA that postseason, and it was later announced that he had won Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young award, and a Silver Slugger award, to boot.
Again: He was 20 years old.
The last time the Dodgers won a World Series in a full season, it was 1988. Valenzuela had been sidelined for two months that season with a shoulder injury, and wasn’t on the postseason roster. The Dodgers had to do it without their biggest star.
In those early years, the Hall of Fame had seemed almost like a foregone conclusion. While he had success after 1988, he wasn’t ever quite the same. At just 27, his best years were already behind him. The Hall of Fame never happened, but last year — 20 years after he returned to the Dodgers as a broadcaster — the team changed their policy and retired his number anyway (not that anyone had worn it in the 33 years since the Dodgers released him).
Valenzuela may have done things ahead of schedule, but the Dodgers could have done that one a little sooner.
Valenzuela passed away yesterday. He had stepped away from the broadcast booth at the beginning of this month to focus on his health. He was just 63 years old.
More Valenzuela: If there’s one guy who knows about baseball and culture, it’s Dusty Baker. He spoke to Fabian Ardaya about Valenzuela’s impact.
World Series: Comparing the pitchers and managers
Yesterday, we went position-by-position to see which lineup might have the edge in the World Series, finding a slight edge for the Dodgers. Today, we’re going to attempt a pitching-staff comparison. It won’t be an exact science, since the rosters haven’t been officially set yet, but we have a reasonable approximation we can work with.
Dodgers starters: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, “Johnny Wholestaff”
Yankees starters: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil
You’d like to give the Yankees an easy nod here, simply because they have four starting pitchers. But look over those names; do you see anyone you feel truly confident about locking down a game? For either side?
Yamamoto and Cole have looked dominant at times, but not all the time. Which Flaherty or Rodón will show up? Buehler was great in his last start, but it only lasted four innings. The Dodgers’ fourth starter … is their bullpen.
Advantage Yankees, but do you know who I’d rather have? The Dodgers’ injured list. A healthy four of Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May, with Gavin Stone and Tony Gonsolin as bulk relievers? That’s the option I’d take if it were available.
Bullpens: There are three factors I want to look at here.
- The overall numbers this postseason favor the Yankees, as you can see:
| Team | ERA | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | FIP | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yankees
|
3.27
|
82.2
|
8.82
|
3.59
|
3.54
|
1.00
|
|
Dodgers
|
4.36
|
97
|
7.42
|
3.62
|
4.71
|
0.34
|
- We’re not yet to “big sample size” numbers, but we can get a sense of how they’ll be used — which is to say: heavily. Once per turn in the rotation, Dave Roberts has leaned on L.A.’s relievers to go entire games, while Aaron Boone has used his to forego a starter’s third time through the order.
- There’s one other factor here. As Brendan Kuty lays out here, Nestor Cortes — who came out of the bullpen just once in 31 appearances this year — appears to be coming off the injured list with one job: neutralize Shohei Ohtani. Will the time off mean he’s fresher than the rest? Or will there be rust?
All things considered, I’m giving the Yankees the advantage here as well, but we’re looking at two groups of sprinters just trying to get through the 26th mile of a marathon.
Managers: Dave Roberts (L.A.) vs. Aaron Boone (NY): I am not a brilliant enough strategist to tell you why one of these guys has the edge over the other. They’re both still on their first managerial jobs — Boone since 2018 and Roberts since 2015 — with franchises that don’t have a ton of patience for bad managing.
There are two places we have a little data:
- Experience: Roberts’ career record is 851-507 (.629 winning percentage), while Boone is 603-429 (.584). Roberts hasn’t missed the playoffs once since taking the job.
- Postseason success: Both have faced scrutiny for postseason shortcomings in the past, but only one has a ring: Roberts in 2020.
The question is how much either of these matter. Roberts has had better rosters, so you could argue that he should have a better winning percentage. You can also diminish the Dodgers’ shortened-season championship if you like, but someone had to win it. It counts for something, even if it’s not full credit.
Slight edge to Roberts, but if you disagree I’m not going to argue about it.
Ringmaster: How to get a ring, win or lose
Sam Blum and C. Trent Rosecrans have a story today that is an absolute treasure trove for true baseball nerds.
They spoke to Taylor Trammell, who has already (mathematically speaking) become the first player to win a World Series ring this year, since he played for both the Dodgers and the Yankees in the regular season.
Of course, Trammell made a total of eight plate appearances in the big leagues this year — six for the Dodgers and two for the Yankees — but that doesn’t matter. Neither do the relatively miniscule contributions of some of the other players Blum and Rosecrans (with help from Stephen Nesbitt, Chad Jennings and Zack Meisel) spoke to for this story.
Remember Austin Adams (2019 Nationals, three outs recorded)? How about Jay Flaa (2021 Braves, four outs)? The list goes on, and the stories are all interesting. It seems like it happens every other year in this age of players changing teams with so much frequency, but this story raised two questions for me. (Literally) hours of research later, I have answers!
The first one was easy. When were World Series rings first given to the winners? That was 1922, when the New York Giants defeated the Yankees.
The second question took a lot longer. Who was the first player to find himself in Trammell’s position? After poring over every World Series roster from 1922 onward, I found him.
It was Jack Kramer, in 1951.
Kramer started that year with the New York Giants, but allowed eight earned runs in 4 2/3 innings over four games (including one start). He was released in May and signed with the Yankees nine days later.
He was a little better with the cross-town Yankees, posting a 4.65 ERA in 40 2/3 innings, but they released him on August 30. About six weeks later, Kramer’s most recent former team beat his previous other team in the World Series. He never pitched in the big leagues again.
You can read about Kramer’s life and career here.
Handshakes and High Fives
If you thought I got a little too prosaic yesterday with my Yankees/Dodgers prelude, here is the story for you: Grant Brisbee has The Hater’s Guide to the 2024 World Series. On the other hand, Jayson Stark asks if “Ohtani vs. Judge” can be MLB’s “Magic vs. Bird.” (You can cast your vote on our reader poll.)
Speaking of Ohtani, his 50th home run ball — the one that made him MLB’s first 50/50 player — just sold for $4.392 million.
Thinking about going to a World Series game? It won’t be cheap.
As an objective journalist, I didn’t have any emotional rooting interest in this year’s playoffs matchups. But as a human being who is susceptible to human joy, I do miss the Mets. Tim Britton and Will Sammon count down the 24 wildest moments from this season.
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(Top photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
