Week 8 of the NFL season is here and we’re coming off a nice bounce-back week to hopefully keep it rolling. It’s been an up and down season so far but I think the model has been on the right side of things over the last few weeks. Hopefully that continues this week.
Last week’s record: 4-1, +2.95 units
Season record: 16-17-2, -1.00 units, -2.7% ROI
Big card this week. I’m not sure how I feel about it but value is value. It’s an ugly card but I think we are starting to overvalue some teams as we approach the midpoint mark of the season. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck to us!
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Best bets for NFL Week 8
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst price to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet. All odds are from BetMGM.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams under 48 (-110)
I’m not totally in love with this total, but it’s a big enough edge for me that I can’t pass it up. The Rams have been reportedly shopping wide receiver Cooper Kupp, so there is a chance he doesn’t play this week, which obviously helps. I think the Vikings have a good matchup against this Rams offensive line as well, and hopefully they bounce back after getting gashed against the Lions last week.
- Worst price to bet: Under 47.5 (-110)
Cleveland Browns +9 (-110) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sigh. I’m fading the current version of this Ravens offense, and it terrifies me. But I think Jameis Winston is an upgrade over Deshaun Watson, and this is a huge number to be laying on the road with a secondary that leaves a lot to be desired. And while the Ravens should get theirs this weekend, I think the Browns have a chance to move the ball against this secondary on a short week with Winston at quarterback.
- Worst price to bet: Browns +8 (-110)
Miami Dolphins -3 (-120) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Tua Tagovailoa should be good to go and I think we are grossly underpricing him here. He’s a huge upgrade over what Miami has been trotting out there even if he is a little rusty. On the other side, I think the market is overrating the Cardinals. They’re on short rest here and I think they were pretty fortunate to get a win on Monday night against the Chargers.
- Worst price to bet: Dolphins -3 (-120)
Buffalo Bills -3 (-115) at Seattle Seahawks
I was on the Seahawks last week as they came up with an outright victory over the Falcons. Well, things change week to week, and I’m fading them here. DK Metcalf’s status is uncertain, which is something to monitor. As for the Bills, another week with Amari Cooper getting familiar with Josh Allen and the offense and I think we could see some benefits against a banged-up Seahawks secondary.
Las Vegas Raiders +10 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are the best team in football and I will continue to bet on them when they’re priced as underdogs. However, I’m not in love with them laying double digits. Their offense isn’t explosive but it’s super efficient. That makes it hard for them to consistently win by a large margin. Anyway, my number is in the single digits and I look forward to Mahomes and Co. making me hate myself for fading him.
- Worst price to bet: Raiders +10 (-110)
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
