One of the most difficult things we have to do as fantasy managers is not just work the waiver wire/free agents, but correctly decide when to sit and start them. I’ve said before that even though it sucks when your whole fantasy squad is injured and/or on bye, it’s at least easy to decide who’s starting. Having no choice in the matter certainly leads to fewer emotional ups and downs regardless of whether you manage a miracle win or succumb to an expected loss.
On the other hand, we’re smart, independent people who don’t play the game because it’s easy. We play to outwit, outlast, and dominate our leaguemates. While the outlasting might be the ultimate prize, don’t underestimate the power of a savvy sit/start decision to boost your morale and take your opponent down a notch.
With the newest batch of injuries derailing many a fantasy roster (even with no byes in Week 8), we’re going to look at some tough possible start/sit decisions. The waiver wire is hot this week, and we have several stars finally returning to action. Who to trust?
QB — Patrick Mahomes or Bo Nix?
It’s no secret that Mahomes has been a fantasy disaster this season. Anyone still starting him in a 1QB league is living in the past or an imagined future. He has more interceptions than total touchdowns (8:7), with zero passing touchdowns in his past two games. Yes, there is always the possibility that he has an awesome fantasy outing. Maybe DeAndre Hopkins will be the difference maker… but I don’t believe it. The matchup this week is fine. Las Vegas ranks fourth in points allowed, though they’re less generous against the pass — about league average. The scary thing is that the Chiefs haven’t needed Mahomes to be Superman to win games, so the pressure for him to be great for fantasy purposes isn’t really there.
Nix, on the other hand, is a hungry rookie getting his first wins under his belt, including a statement “W” in last week’s Thursday night game against the Saints. Over the past three weeks, he’s QB11 for fantasy, throwing only one interception to four passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. Nix will face Carolina at home this weekend, the worst defense in the league. They are known primarily as the weakest rushing defense, which suits Nix fine — his 255 rushing yards rank fourth among QBs for the season. However, the Panthers also rank as a Top 10 fantasy matchup for QBs, giving up two passing touchdowns per game along with 223.6 passing yards per game.
Verdict? I’m going with Nix in the better matchup at home.
QB — Tua Tagovailoa or Sam Darnold?
If you don’t think the return of one player can make that much of a difference, just remember how much the loss of that player mattered for everyone around him. The return of Tagovailoa should be great for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but it could also be great for him as a fantasy QB. Arizona allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and ninth-most points per game. It’s a great passing matchup for the Dolphins.
On the other side, Darnold has far exceeded expectations this season, keeping not only Justin Jefferson managers happy, but generally being a startable QB (minus a Week 5 game vs. the Jets). He’s tied with Josh Allen in passing touchdowns (12, fifth-most among QBs) despite playing one fewer game and facing a really tough schedule so far. That changes in a big way this week when the Vikings take on the Rams on Thursday night. The Rams allow slightly more points per game than the Cardinals (25.7 PPG) and are above average in passing touchdowns allowed (1.7 per game, T-fifth best in the league).
Verdict: You can’t go wrong with either one, but I’ll push for Darnold. Miami is at home while the Vikings are in LA, but I’ll probably wait one week before starting Tua if I have this particular choice for Week 8.
RB — Nick Chubb or Rachaad White?
Chubb returned from his second major injury to more chaos in Cleveland. It was hardly triumphant for his fantasy managers as he managed only 22 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards and a TD. Thank goodness for the touchdown, but if you’re not still rooting for Chubb to succeed, read this. Baltimore is a neutral rushing matchup, but an excellent passing matchup (see below). The Browns remain big underdogs behind new starting QB Jameis Winston.
White is coming off his best game of the season, one in which Bucky Irving was also a valued fantasy starter. Tampa Bay lost their two best wide receivers Monday night (more on this below too), but it’s not like they lack in depth. This is a rematch of the Week 5 matchup that saw the Falcons do a great job of keeping both Bucs’ backs in check.
Verdict? I’m going with Chubb in this one because I think Winston can get them close enough to the end zone for him to score at least once. There’s one league where I’m compelled to start them both, though, so it’s not all bad for White.
WR — Cooper Kupp or Jalen McMillan?
McMillan was one of the hottest pickups of the week given that both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be out for the foreseeable future. With Baker Mayfield playing his pants off this season, the next man up in Tampa Bay is a big deal. Rookie McMillan saw eight targets in Week 7, though he caught only three of them for 15 yards. Atlanta is a better passing matchup than rushing, allowing opposing wideouts the eighth-most fantasy points.
Kupp will most likely make his season debut Thursday night against the Vikings. This is great news for the Rams, and maybe for fantasy managers. The downside here is a shorter practice week, not to mention the trade rumors that have recently surfaced, or the fact that Kupp is a 31-year old coming back from an ankle injury. The upside is the matchup with the Vikings, who allow the third-most fantasy points to WRs this season.
Verdict? There are pluses and minuses to both players. If forced, I’m choosing Kupp over McMillan, but I’m also starting McMillan in a dynasty league. The volume should be excellent for both receivers.
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WR — Cedric Tillman or Dontayvion Wicks?
We’ve finally moved into the post-Deshaun Watson era in Cleveland, at least temporarily. That, and the departure of Amari Cooper to Buffalo, saw Tillman receive 12 targets in Week 7. He should remain locked into a high-volume receiving role as Jameis Winston will be looking to throw against Baltimore, the league’s best fantasy passing matchup. Tillman may not be an elite talent, but volume alone should make him starting material.
On the other side, Wicks is one of four Green Bay receivers who can make or break your fantasy matchup any given week. Jordan Love is playing top-notch football, averaging three touchdowns and over 300 passing yards per game. The Packers get a dream matchup with Jacksonville this weekend and there’s room for multiple pass-catchers to succeed here. Wicks and Romeo Doubs were “the guys” in Week 7, so might it be Christian Watson or Jayden Reed stealing the thunder in Week 8?
Verdict? Tillman. I hate chasing points and there are too many mouths to feed in Green Bay. I love the matchup, I love the player, but I can’t count on the volume week to week with so much talent in this Packers receiving group.
WR — Tyler Lockett or Zay Flowers?
I’m assuming that DK Metcalf is missing at least this week’s game — MCL sprains are weeks-long injuries, not days-long. Lockett has been mostly a fantasy afterthought to this point in the season but should be stepping into a role he knows well. A great route-runner with good competitive catch skills, Lockett’s expanded opportunities with Metcalf out should translate to fantasy goodness, even against a slightly above average Buffalo pass defense.
While Baltimore is the highest-scoring team in the league (tied with Washington), Flowers doesn’t account for much of it. Though he leads his team in catches and passing yards (barely), he’s scored only one time. Facing the Browns, a matchup the Ravens should win by double-digits, his skills are once again unlikely to factor in.
Verdict? Lockett is the easy choice here. To Flowers’ drafters: it’s truly a shame that he’s not a bigger part of the offense this season.
TE — David Njoku or Dalton Kincaid?
It’s a lot of Cleveland here, right? I generally try to focus on higher quality teams, but I do see the QB change as a potential path to fantasy goodness for these Browns. Njoku is coming off his best game of the season, scoring a touchdown and catching 10 of 14 passes for 76 yards. As I said, pass volume and quality can only go up with Winston under center this week, and Njoku is going to be a prime beneficiary.
Is there a bigger TE bust than Dalton Kincaid (6.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game, TE18)? Well, yes, there is, but I’m not going to pour salt in that wound. Anyway, Kincaid has not been helpful for fantasy. Both he and Dawson Knox have played a lot of snaps, with Knox taking on a primarily blocking role in the offense (note that he is listed as questionable on Wednesday’s practice report). Kincaid has seen as much as 25-30 percent of Josh Allen’s air yards in three games this season, and he’s seen 6-7 targets in each of the past four games, yet he scored only once (Week 4).
Verdict? I’m going with another Brown, believe it or not. The matchup is very favorable for Njoku, the volume should be high – maybe double Kincaid’s – and he’s the most proven pass-catcher for Cleveland right now.
(Top photo of Jameis Winston: Jeremy Reper-Imagn Images)
