Carlo Ancelotti has never been a manager to let tactical issues lie. Since returning to Real Madrid in 2021, he has made almost 700 tweaks to his starting line-ups, a rate of around four per game.
For Tuesday’s 5-2 comeback win over Borussia Dortmund, Ferland Mendy, Luka Modric and Rodrygo were brought in, while Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao, Lucas Vazquez and Fran Garcia stepped in three days earlier against Celta Vigo.
Rotation should not come as a surprise under a proactive coach such as Ancelotti, but recent adjustments have been structural and sweeping, rather than the high-level fine-tuning we have previously seen with his teams.
Madrid have cycled through three formations in three games, and while results have remained positive (a 2-0 win against Villarreal was followed by a 2-1 win over Celta before the Dortmund match), concerns around the defensive shape persist. Injuries have not helped — nor has the summer retirement of Toni Kroos — but early evidence suggests this is a top-heavy team that gives up goalscoring opportunities at a similar rate to which their talent-stacked attack can create them.
Three points behind Barcelona leading into a table-topping Clasico this weekend, moments of individual quality have guided Madrid through a largely unconvincing start. But for how long can that be sustained?
The opening goal at a drizzly Estadio Balaidos in Vigo last weekend summed up the situation at Madrid; television footage had barely moved on from a spiky discussion between Ancelotti and makeshift centre-back Aurelien Tchouameni, before it cut to Kylian Mbappe, lining up a ferocious drive from 25 yards.
It was another contest for which the underlying numbers suggest Madrid were fortunate to escape with a victory, being outperformed for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) for the fifth time in La Liga this season, something that only happened on six occasions throughout the whole of the previous campaign.
Expanding that same metric across the entire season gives us a solid indication of a team’s performance, with the numbers showing Madrid are some way from hitting the explosive heights that the quality of their squad promised in the summer.
Conceding dangerous counter-attacks has eaten into their expected goal difference — an issue exacerbated as Ancelotti trialled a three-man defensive system against Celta.
In possession, Tchouameni was tasked with dropping between the two centre-backs, but he and Antonio Rudiger were caught up the pitch too often, as in the sequence below.
Mbappe’s cross is intercepted in frame one, and with his team-mates in a disorganised state to counter-press, Fran Beltran finds a long pass into Borja Iglesias that bypasses the pressure. He flicks the ball onto Williot Swedberg, but the 20-year-old slides the ball wide, and Madrid are off the hook.
Midfielders Jude Bellingham and Federico Valverde are unable to resist tip-toeing forward while Madrid build up and, equally, the reverse angle below draws attention to the space Madrid can leave in behind when they are caught up the pitch.
According to data from Opta, Madrid have faced 2.4 direct attacks per game in domestic football this season, up from a rate of 1.8 last campaign. Defined as an open-play sequence that starts in the defending half and ends in a shot or touch in the opposition penalty area, they conceded four such attacks against Celta, while they were similarly open against Real Betis and Mallorca on the opening day.
No team have scored more on the counter than Barcelona this season, with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal particularly potent with space to carry the ball into. Switch off for a second on Saturday, and they could find themselves in a deficit too wide to claw back.
Madrid have also found it difficult to press effectively this season, and it’s no secret that Mbappe has been part of the problem.
Before he arrived in the summer, coaching staff expressed their concerns about the Frenchman’s lack of interest in the defensive side of the game, and while Ancelotti insists he only asks Mbappe to score goals, there is no denying the team has needed time to adapt.
While in-possession plans have fluctuated, Madrid have generally stuck to a 4-4-2 without the ball, with Vinicius Junior and Mbappe making up the first line of pressure. Sources within the club, speaking anonymously to protect relationships, consider Mbappe the best No 9 in world football when it comes to attacking open spaces, and are working with him to be more attentive when Madrid recover the ball in that shape.
Despite that potential, the pair have proven too easy to bypass with the ball, forcing the midfield to step forward and leaving the defensive line exposed.
Here against Real Valladolid, for example, we can see Ancelotti’s side waiting in in a deeper shape for the away side to move the ball forward. Mbappe originally opts not to close the centre-back down — the pass has almost reached Flavien Boyomo in the still image below — before moving towards the ball.
Mbappe’s hesitation gives Boyomo time to find his midfielder with a simple pass, obliging Valverde to step forward.
Vinicius Jr does not react to the situation and leaves midfielder Mario Martin free, and Lucas Rosa can play a simple one-two around the pressure…
… leaving the full-back with a direct route through to the Madrid back four.
In an attempt to plug the gaps, Ancelotti sacrificed one of the front three against Villarreal, leaving Rodrygo on the bench to allow a combative midfield four of Bellingham, Valverde, Modric and Eduardo Camavinga to cover the ground.
Width down the right flank came from full-back Dani Carvajal, but his season-ending injury in stoppage time has left that side light on attacking options, prompting the wing-back experiment in Vigo last weekend.
That exposed another flaw — Vazquez’s unreliability in the defensive duel — prompting a switch in position for Bellingham.
Taking him away from Vinicius Jr and Mbappe on the left, where he linked up so effectively with the former last season, is seen as a necessary defensive tweak, with the manager confirming he will continue there for the foreseeable future.
He played a right-sided role against Dortmund on Tuesday, as we can see from the pass network below, and although he offered protection behind Rodrygo in another tireless display, defensive errors down that flank played a part in both of the visitor’s goals.
The big decision for Ancelotti this weekend will surround the attacking shape; although the 4-4-2 we saw against Villarreal offered more defensive solidity, it is hard to ignore the frightening potential of the 4-3-3 on the break.
Either way, the gaps are there for Barcelona to exploit — but it would be typical of Ancelotti and Madrid, despite their glaring issues, to cling on, race down the other end, and finish the weekend with a title race well and truly on.
