Examining the Mets' payroll entering the offseason

NEW YORK — There was a time when the most important priority early in a New York Mets offseason was outlining how much the team could possibly spend over the winter.

Times have changed.

The Mets have had the highest payroll in the sport in each of the past two seasons, and this winter they have an enormous amount of cash coming off the ledger.

“We’ve got financial flexibility,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said last week. “We have a lot of money coming off the books. I would expect us to spend some of that, a good portion of that, to complement our team and improve our team heading into next year.”

Ahead of the official start of the offseason after the World Series, let’s explore what that financial flexibility looks like for the Mets. This is Part 1 in a two-part story. In Part 2 later this week, I’ll look at what kind of team the Mets can build at different price points.

What option decisions must be made within 5 days of the World Series ending?

Sean Manaea

Manaea can opt out of the final year of his two-year deal, in which he’s slated to earn $13.5 million in 2025. Had Manaea merely continued his pace over the first four months of the season, making 30-plus starts with around a league-average ERA, he probably would have opted out. But given his sparkling performance from late July on, Manaea will definitely opt out, and he should end up signing for at least three years.

If Manaea opts out, the Mets must add $500,000 to their luxury tax payroll for 2025. (Manaea counted for $14 million against the tax in 2024 because he signed a two-year, $28 million deal. But he was paid $14.5 million last season, so the Mets have to account for that extra half-million toward the tax.)

Phil Maton

The Mets hold a club option on Maton for $7.75 million with a $250,000 buyout. Given the relatively small buyout, the Mets will likely pass on the option. That said, this could be an interesting litmus test for how Stearns wields the club’s financial advantage. If he and the Mets like Maton enough, overpaying him to a slight degree — he’d probably get close to $6 million on the open market — is one way to lock him in and have one fewer need in free agency. That’s still doubtful, though, given Maton plays a position of extreme surplus.

What about the qualifying offer?

The qualifying offer will be worth $21.05 million. Any player extended the qualifying offer — it’s really annoying how it sounds when you write a team “offers the qualifying offer” — will have until Nov. 19 to decide whether to accept it. As a repeat luxury-tax payer, the Mets would receive a draft pick between the fourth and fifth rounds should any of their free agents reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere.

Pete Alonso

Yes, obviously.

Sean Manaea

Yes.

Luis Severino

Probably. Think of how much rebound candidates made on the open market last winter before they rebounded, topped by Frankie Montas’ $16 million deal with Cincinnati. Severino has shown himself capable of being a solid mid-rotation arm, and there’s some reason to believe he can build on that to be even better in 2025. He should earn a multi-year deal. That said, Severino declared his affinity for New York last offseason, and there’s a chance he would accept the QO. The Mets would have to be comfortable taking that risk, viewing a slight one-year overpay for a 31-year-old Severino as a fine outcome.

Harrison Bader

No. Bader’s second-half slump offensively led to a reduced role down the stretch. Even without Drew Gilbert looking ready to take the reins in center field full-time in 2025, the Mets have Tyrone Taylor as a solid stopgap.

J.D. Martinez

No. Even before his nightmarish September slump, Martinez had signed for less than the QO after a better season last year.

Jesse Winker

Winker signed for $2 million before last season. He had a strong year and should be in the conversation to return to the Mets, but not at anything close to $21 million.

Jose Quintana
Brooks Raley
Adam Ottavino
Drew Smith
Ryne Stanek
Phil Maton (if option declined)

No.

Where do the Mets stand?

The Mets have a lot of money coming off the books this offseason.

Mets money coming off the books

Player	Salary	Tax
Pete Alonso	$20.50	$20.50
Sean Manaea	$14.50	$14.00
Jose Quintana	$13.00	$13.00
Luis Severino	$13.00	$13.00
Harrison Bader	$10.50	$10.50
J.D. Martinez	$12.00	$9.36
Omar Narváez	$7.00	$7.50
Brooks Raley	$6.50	$6.50
Adrian Houser	$5.05	$5.05
Adam Ottavino	$4.50	$4.50
Jake Diekman	$4.00	$4.00
Shintaro Fujinami	$3.35	$3.35
Phil Maton	$2.87	$2.87
Drew Smith	$2.23	$2.23
Joey Wendle	$2.00	$2.00
Jorge López	$2.00	$2.00
Joey Lucchesi	$1.65	$1.65
Ryne Stanek	$1.33	$1.33
José Iglesias	$0.98	$0.98
Jesse Winker	$0.67	$0.67
Subtotal	$127.63	$124.99

*For players acquired at the trade deadline, the salary included here is just what the Mets paid them in 2024.

Then there are the 2024 payments the Mets made to other teams for former players coming off the books. Justin Verlander did not qualify for his vesting option for 2025, and thus the Mets are off the hook for an additional $17.5 million payment next season.

Dead money coming off the Mets' books

Player	Salary	Tax
Justin Verlander	$26.63	$26.63
Max Scherzer	$20.83	$26.62
James McCann	$8.00	$9.50
Eduardo Escobar	$0.50	$0.50
Darin Ruf	$0.25	$0.25
Subtotal	$56.21	$63.50
Total	$180.49	$185.14

That’s a massive amount of more than $180 million coming off the payroll — or larger than the Opening Day 2024 payrolls for 20 other teams.

Of course, that leaves the Mets with just six players under guaranteed contracts for next season.

Mets committed money in 2025

Player	Salary	Tax
Francisco Lindor	$32.00	$34.10
Brandon Nimmo	$20.25	$20.25
Starling Marte	$19.50	$19.50
Edwin Díaz	$17.50	$18.64
Kodai Senga	$14.00	$15.00
Jeff McNeil	$15.75	$12.50
Sean Manaea (tax adjustment)	$0	$0.50
Phil Maton (buyout)	$0.25	$0.25
Subtotal	$119.25	$120.74

The Mets have another large class of arbitration-eligible players, though the total of their commitments in arbitration is likely to come in lower than what they paid Alonso in arbitration last winter. The estimates here are courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors (except for Lucchesi, who MLBTR didn’t list. The estimate there is mine).

Arbitration estimates for 2025

Player	Salary	Tax
Paul Blackburn	$4.40	$4.40
David Peterson	$4.40	$4.40
Tyrone Taylor	$2.90	$2.90
Tylor Megill	$2.10	$2.10
DJ Stewart	$1.70	$1.70
Alex Young	$1.40	$1.40
Luis Torrens	$1.10	$1.10
Sean Reid-Foley	$0.90	$0.90
Subtotal	$18.90	$18.90
Total	$138.15	$139.14

Peterson, Taylor, Torrens and Megill should be easy tender decisions. Stewart, Young and Reid-Foley are on shakier ground.

The decision on Blackburn became more complicated with his back injury and subsequent surgery to repair a leak in his spinal fluid. The right-hander will be out the entire offseason and will only be returning sometime in spring training, putting him behind all the other pitchers at that point. The Mets could cut their losses here, either via trade or non-tender, thinking they’ve got enough back-end and depth starters that Blackburn isn’t worth the salary. On the other hand, in a similar situation three years ago, the Mets tendered Trevor Williams a contract and watched Williams become one of the more important arms on their staff in 2022.

Even if the Mets tender everyone in arbitration, they can’t field a roster with just 15 players. So we have to add minimum salary obligations for 11 more players and 14 additional players on the 40-man roster. That adds up to about $9.3 million in salary and $10.1 million toward the tax.

Finally, the Mets must set aside $2 million of salary for player benefits and $20.7 million toward the tax for benefits and the pre-arbitration bonus pool. That brings the Mets’ current likely commitments to next season around $146 million in on-field payroll and $167 million toward the luxury tax. The luxury tax is set at $241 million next season; the draft-pick penalties would kick in at $281 million.

That gives the Mets $74 million under the initial luxury-tax threshold and $114 million under the third, more punitive threshold.

Can the Mets trim payroll heading into free agency?

This question is less necessary than in years past because the Mets have substantial room below the luxury-tax threshold entering the offseason. However, if they wanted to go even lower, they could look to move Starling Marte and/or Jeff McNeil, and they could non-tender a few of the arbitration-eligible players.

What are the Mets’ commitments beyond 2025?

Of the six players guaranteed money in 2025, only Marte is set to hit free agency after next season. Kodai Senga could opt out of the final two years of his deal if he pitches a remarkable 228 1/3 innings — only one pitcher, Miami’s Sandy Alcántara, has reached that total in the last eight seasons. Edwin Díaz can decide to opt out of the remaining two years and $38 million in his deal.

Obligations beyond 2025

Player	Owed	Through
Francisco Lindor	$192.00	2031
Brandon Nimmo	$101.25	2030
Edwin Díaz	$38.00	2027
Kodai Senga	$28.00	2027
Jeff McNeil	$17.75	2026

Here’s how it breaks down by year:

(Top photo of Sean Manaea from Aug. 21: Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)