Kirby Smart has spent his nine years at Georgia talking up SEC play as a different animal from other conferences and a grind every week. It rang a bit hollow, as his team averaged a margin of victory of 20.8 points last year, 28.3 the year before, 31.9 in 2021 and at least 17.2 in the games it won in every season since 2017.
But not this year: Georgia’s margin of victory in conference games is only 11 points. And that would be a huge red flag for the nation’s second-ranked team — if it weren’t part of a conference-wide trend.
The average margin of victory in SEC games is 13.3 points, which would be the smallest margin since 2015. That’s an average of 3 points fewer than just last year.
Sixteen out of 37 SEC games have been decided by one score (8 points or fewer), which is already within one of last year’s total of one-possession games. This year’s rate of 43 percent one-possession games is on track to be the most since 2014, when it was 45 percent, per TruMedia.
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And it’s not just the final score: Most of the games (57 percent) have been within one possession at some point in the fourth quarter, per TruMedia, which would be the most since 2010, when it was 67 percent.
Texas A&M has the most double-digit conference wins this season, and its average margin of victory is 14.6.
“There is definitely not a large margin of separation, top and bottom in our league,” Smart said. “Probably the least it’s been since I’ve been in it.”
This also isn’t a gradual trend; it’s happening this year. Here’s the data from the past four seasons in SEC play:
2024
Average margin of victory: 13.3
One-possession games (8 points or fewer): 16 out of 37 games
Two-possession games (15 or fewer): 25 out of 37 games
2023
Average margin of victory: 16.3
One-possession games (8 or fewer): 17 out of 56 games
Two-possession games (15 or fewer): 29 out of 56 games
2022
Average margin of victory: 15.8
One-possession games (8 or fewer): 22 out of 56 games
Two-possession games (15 or fewer): 36 out of 56 games
2021
Average margin of victory: 15.5
One-possession games (8 or fewer): 23 out of 56 games
Two-possession games (15 or fewer): 33 out of 56 games
So, why is this happening? First, the caveat that it’s an incomplete picture, there are 27 more conference games and blowouts could return. But it would have to be a stark reversal of this year’s trend to end up close to the previous few years.
Here are some theories:
Talent, depth gap is tighter
This is the easy answer: the transfer portal — especially with players being able to transfer every year — coupled with programs being able to use money from name, image and likeness to level the field a bit in recruiting.
Smart said every game week he gets a list of players on the other team who are transfers, and it seems higher than ever. It has had the dual effect of making teams better but spreading talent around; the Georgias and Alabamas can’t hoard young players on their bench as much anymore.
“The teams are better,” Smart said. “I don’t know that teams have as much depth. I know we don’t. We don’t have as much depth as we’ve had in the past. So that depth is shared out, which may create some more parity there.”
Vanderbilt
The Commodores (5-3) have one of the most impactful transfers this year: quarterback Diego Pavia. All four of the team’s conference games have been one-possession games. Compare that with last year, when they went 0-8 and the closest game was a 16-point home loss to Auburn.
Two years ago, Vanderbilt was slightly more competitive, winning two games by one possession and losing another by one possession — but losing three games by 50-plus points. In Clark Lea’s first season as the coach three years ago, the Commodores went 0-8 with only one loss by one possession and the rest decided by an average of 29.5 points.
So, is the data just about Vanderbilt being better? That matters: Take away its games, and the amount of one-possession games is still slightly above last year (32 percent versus 30 percent). The average margin of victory, however, is still lower: 14.3 this year without Vanderbilt’s games versus 14.9 last year.
A counter to that is Mississippi State, which has replaced Vanderbilt as this year’s basement-dweller, at 1-7 overall while being blown out at home by Arkansas and Toledo. And yet Mississippi State kept it competitive against Texas A&M (34-24), Georgia (41-31) and Texas (35-13, within a possession at halftime). The Bulldogs did just get blown out by Arkansas, though.
And it’s not like every blowout over the past few years involved Vanderbilt: Georgia routed Kentucky by 38 points last year but only 1 point this year. Last year, Auburn routed Arkansas 48-14; this year, Arkansas won the rematch 24-14. But it’s harder to find other back-to-back comparisons, which points to another explanation.
Scheduling
The end of divisions and the addition of Oklahoma and Texas created more diverse scheduling and thus more games between marquee opponents, which usually lead to closer games. Alabama-Georgia, decided by a touchdown, is a prime example.
But the new format meant more games between teams unfamiliar with each other. Does that matter? For what it’s worth, nine of the 16 games decided by one possession have involved teams that weren’t in the same division last year or weren’t in the league.
Texas is an example by itself: It blew out the team it faces every year, Oklahoma, 34-3. But the Longhorns had close games with Mississippi State and Georgia and then went to Vanderbilt, which it hadn’t played since 1928, and won by only 3.
Teams playing the long game
Smart hinted at this a few weeks ago when he mentioned that “it’s all about the long game” of getting in the 12-team College Football Playoff field. That could mean less of an emphasis on style points and more of an NFL-like satisfaction in just getting wins and moving on to the next week.
A few examples: Tennessee racing to a 19-3 lead at Oklahoma, then winning 25-15, and Georgia going up 34-10 on Mississippi State, then winning 41-31.
There could be teams that are more cautious with injured players, knowing they need them fully healthy for the stretch, or more conservative approaches to offense, not putting too much on film in games they’re more confident of winning. But that’s all just speculative.
Defenses are catching up
It might be premature for defensive-minded people to do victory laps, and maybe offenses and quarterbacks are down. But the stats bear out that after years of offense going up, SEC defenses are stopping the bleeding: Per TruMedia, the percentage of drives resulting in touchdowns (23 percent) and average drive gain (30.7 yards) are on pace to be the SEC’s lowest since 2015 (20.3 percent and 29.6 percent).
Georgia led the SEC in defensive yards per play last year, at 4.77. Five teams are below that this year.
And one more theory …
The SEC likely would rather not consider this: Its elite teams just aren’t that elite anymore and aren’t getting the blowouts of years past.
There’s mixed evidence of that in nonconference play: Georgia blew out Clemson 34-3, which is unbeaten since. Texas and Alabama got blowout wins on the road against Big Ten teams — Michigan and Wisconsin — which are each 5-3. Meanwhile, Texas A&M lost at home to Notre Dame but is the lone unbeaten team in SEC play. LSU lost on a neutral field to USC, which is 3-4 since.
Ultimately, whether this theory holds weight will not be known until the Playoff. How many SEC teams are playing in it remains to be seen, determined by record and schedule strength — but perhaps not the margin of victory unless something changes in these final five weeks.
(Top photos of Diego Pavia, left, and Mike Elko: Jay Biggerstaff, Kevin Jairaj / Imagn Images)
