Defender transfers will be popular in FPL this week, with the injury to Arsenal centre-back Gabriel (£6.3m) prompting changes.
Add into the mix the form of Wolves’ Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.6m) and the desire to move funds into attack and it’s clearly a good time to take stock of our defences.
So which teams should we be looking to for defensive picks and what can be gained from adjusting the budget in this position?
Arsenal defence
The big transfer trend for those on a Gameweek 6 wildcard was to double up on Arsenal defenders. It’s been a pretty torrid time since then, with no clean sheets, seven goals conceded, a red card and suspension for William Saliba (£6.0m), and an injury concern for Gabriel.
Arsenal’s underlying defensive numbers have been far more uncertain than last season: they are conceding a lot more shots, with an average of two big chances conceded per game. Rotation and injuries in the full-back positions haven’t helped either.
With Gabriel now a doubt going forward, it certainly makes sense to abandon ship when it comes to Arsenal defenders.
Attacking threat
It’s certainly not been a season where we’ve found consistency for defences, with only five sides managing to keep more than two clean sheets so far this season.
While it’s possible to play the fixtures when it comes to clean-sheet potential, it’s perhaps time to rate defenders based on their offensive merit and treat clean sheets merely as a bonus.
Leading the way for goal involvements so far this season is Wolves’ Ait-Nouri (pictured top), with three goals and two assists in nine appearances.
Traditionally a full-back, he is sometimes deployed as a wing-back in a back five or as a winger when Gary O’Neil tweaks his system, giving him licence to attack.
He has been surviving on attacking threat to date, but there should be opportunities for clean sheets in an eight-game favourable stretch, which includes all three promoted teams.
Crucially, he also provides a significant saving on Arsenal defenders: this cash can be moved forward to allow for a third premium among the front eight.
Brentford defenders offer attacking threat this season, too. Nathan Collins (£4.5m) has chalked up four goal involvements to date, while he’s had nine shots on goal, including three big chances.
Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m) boasts similar numbers, with eight shots and two goals for the campaign, while Sepp van den Berg (£4.0m) presents the budget-friendly route into that Brentford defence, with two shots in the box against Ipswich.
The biggest concern here is that despite great fixtures, Brentford have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season, with only Leicester City conceding more shots on their goal so far. They do have the short-term fixtures to prosper though.
Premium picks
Aside from Ait-Nouri, the majority of defenders with positive underlying attacking data come in at premium price tags.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m) is the most expensive of them all, but he does lead the way for expected goal involvements among defenders.
He has the routes to points, with 10 shots on goal this season. He’s ranked second for key passes (17) and big chances created (5) in this campaign.
Liverpool also have solid defensive numbers, with a leading five clean sheets this season. They’ve conceded just 85 shots and 17 big chances.
Alexander-Arnold does have the potential to justify his price tag, but don’t be afraid of using him as a cash cow to bring in a third premium attacker.
Manchester City left-back Josko Gvardiol (£6.2m) has scored the most points of any defender in the last four gameweeks, with two goals and a clean sheet in this time.
He is beginning to show the same form he ended the 2023-24 season with, providing 12 shots on goal, with nine of those coming from inside the box and six hitting the target.
Manchester City remain in a good run of fixtures and while they are not obliterating the opponent in terms of goals, they are impressing with their defensive performances.
Elswehere, Spurs full-back Pedro Porro (£5.5m) leads the way for shots among defenders this season, with 17, and he also boasts 16 key passes.
A lack of clean-sheet hopes dents his appeal, but his side have the fixtures to prosper in the next four gameweeks, including Ipswich Town at home in Gameweek 11.
Defensive data
Nottingham Forest have been impressive with their defensive performances so far this season, keeping three clean sheets and conceding just seven goals in nine.
They have the upcoming fixtures to continue this run, with three home games in their next four. Murillo (£4.5m) leads the way for shots with five, plus two big chances created and has played every single minute of action.
Nikola Milenkovic (£4.5m) is also worth considering, with two big chances on goal this campaign. He has the highest expected goal involvement (xGI) metric of any of their defenders, with 1.4.
Fulham have conceded the fewest big chances on their goal (13) in this campaign, despite keeping just one clean sheet this season.
Antonee Robinson (£4.7m) is the most appealing of their defenders, with two assists for the season. Fulham play Brentford, Crystal Palace and Wolves in the next three gameweeks.
A change of manager at Manchester United could spell some renewed defensive consistency from the side: they’ve already kept four clean sheets this campaign, ranking second of any side.
United have the best fixtures of any team over the next four gameweeks, with full-back Diogo Dalot (£5.1m) the most dangerous option from an attacking perspective.
Salah sweetener
The biggest motivator for switching from premium defenders to budget defenders is what it can afford you further up the pitch.
All season we’ve been debating which two premiums to go for from Erling Haaland (£15.4m), Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) and Cole Palmer (£11.0m).
This trio comprise the three most expensive players in the game and also the three highest-scoring players.
Ultimately, we could strive for the triple-up, with that feat being possible if you discount owning a premium defender. It’s something I am weighing up in my own side.
I could sell Gabriel this week and use the funds to upgrade Phil Foden (£9.3m) to Salah, with the Egyptian a favourite for the armband this week in a home game against Brighton.
The biggest problem with having the three premiums, aside from balance, is you can only captain one each gameweek.
Ultimately, Haaland could be out of the template setup fairly soon, which could redress the balance in the rest of the squad.
(Top photo: Rayan Ait-Nouri; Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
