Pete Alonso consistently delivered the same message. Whenever he was asked about his future with the New York Mets, the first baseman said he loved playing for the club, cherished performing in the city and focused solely on winning games. The remarks quelled any potential deeper conversations about Alonso’s free agency, leaving the matter to be learned about during the offseason through action.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns says he hopes a reunion happens. We will see how much. Similarly, Alonso says he loves the organization. We will see how much.
For the Mets, the exploration of re-signing Alonso involves more than a math equation pitting his on-field value against a dollar figure. The way executives around the league see it, Alonso means more to the Mets than any other club. That’s because he’s a homegrown star.
After six seasons with the Mets, Alonso ranks third all-time for the franchise with 226 home runs, behind only Darryl Strawberry (252) and David Wright (242). His 134 OPS+ ranks fourth. His 375 extra-base hits rank sixth. So do his 586 RBIs.
For all the potential good feelings of a reunion, a natural aging curve projects some drawbacks regarding a long-term commitment. Next year, Alonso will play in his age-30 season. Generally, players in his position and with his skill set raise questions over how well they may age.
Ahead of free agency, Alonso hit 34 home runs with a .788 OPS (123 OPS+). Those are solid numbers, but his home run total was his lowest over a full season, his OPS dipped well below his career mark (.854) and he struggled most of the season with runners on base. However that problem improved in the postseason when Alonso delivered a .999 OPS (58 plate appearances) with four home runs, including perhaps the most important one of his career.
Alonso’s free agency projects as the most important and most fascinating case for the Mets.
Need in 2025 and beyond
On one hand, the emergence of Mark Vientos gives the Mets a strong internal option to replace Alonso at first base. On the other hand, Brett Baty’s continued struggles mean Vientos may be needed over at third base for the time being (though his long-term home is probably at first or DH). Beyond Vientos, the Mets’ next first-base prospect in the system is Ryan Clifford, who reached Double A in 2024 and could be a major-league option by the end of the 2025 season.
The market
Despite, by his standards, a relatively pedestrian season, Alonso is still hitting free agency as the best option at first base. Many of his peers at the position had significantly steeper drops in 2024: Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell all had rough years. Arizona’s Christian Walker posted another solid season and offers more value defensively than Alonso; he’s also going to be 34 next season.
In terms of power hitters, Alonso’s 34 homers this season trailed only Anthony Santander (44 homers) and Juan Soto (41) among free agents. There is obvious value in hitting the ball over the fence, and Alonso still does it as well as most anybody in the sport.
Other teams that might be interested
The Yankees experienced that difficult season for Rizzo, and they were starting Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at the position in the ALDS. The Astros released José Abreu in the second year of a three-year deal that will go down as one of the worst contracts in recent memory; no team received less from its first basemen than Houston. The Mariners ditched Ty France in the middle of the season and need to supplement an offense lacking power. The Nationals are ready to spend and have a hole at first and in the middle of their lineup. Alonso’s hometown Rays have dabbled in pursuing big-time free-agent power — they tried hard to sign Freddie Freeman a few years back — but the uncertainty around where they’ll play in 2025 and beyond probably limits Alonso’s interest.
Projected salary
Freeman’s six-year, $162 million deal with the Dodgers is the top end of the market for active first basemen. It’s been a while since Prince Fielder signed for more than $200 million with the Tigers. A pair of extensions — Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130 million deal with the Cardinals that just expired and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal with Atlanta — are instructive as well.
Alonso doesn’t quite match those players in all-around performance, and he’s coming off a down season. The Goldschmidt extension would be worth about $160 million in today’s money. Let’s imagine Alonso signing a smaller version of that: five years and $140 million, which would be the third-largest deal the club has ever done behind teammates Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest?
For several years, we called Alonso the Mets’ “most indispensable player.” Even when he didn’t provide the all-around impact of Lindor, what he brought to the table couldn’t be replaced by anyone else on the roster. In 2022, Alonso’s 40 home runs were just under a quarter of the team total.
But the dynamic has changed around him in the lineup. Lindor has hit 30-plus homers in consecutive seasons. Extend Vientos’ 2024 production over a full season and you’d get an easy 30 homers from him, too. Nimmo has added power to his game. Everything points to Francisco Alvarez eventually hitting a bunch of home runs. In 2024, Alonso’s 34 homers were 16 percent of a team total that placed sixth in the long ball in all of baseball.
There are some warning signs here. His batting average and on-base percentage did not rebound as much from 2023 as the Mets expected, given the bad batted-ball luck he experienced that season. His power was down, with 10 more doubles but 12 fewer homers than in ’23. As we’ve said since last winter, there’s a big difference between a hitter who slugs 45 to 50 homers and a guy who hits 30 to 35.
That said, Alonso’s down seasons the past two years have included 80 home runs and more than 200 RBIs. His OPS+ is still 123 over that stretch, and he showed in the postseason just how valuable and game-changing he can be in the middle of a batting order.
Alonso is unlikely to land the $200 million contract that might have been out there had he hit 50 long balls this past season. His ultimate deal should be within range for the Mets to splurge a bit, knowing he’s likely to shift to DH by the end of it. It’s just a matter of learning how aggressive another team will be on Alonso.
(Top photo of Pete Alonso: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
