Though it might feel as if the San Francisco 49ers already have been through a full season — or two — in reality they’re not even halfway home. They still have nine games to go, including five road games and three flights to the Eastern time zone.
Still, the bye week is a good time to pause and assess. What has taken shape after eight up-and-down games and a 4-4 record? What are the positions of concern and areas for optimism? Here are a few observations at the almost-halfway mark:
Uptick in man coverage has been problematic
There have been two major themes on offense over the first half of the season: Christian McCaffrey’s absence and the fact that Brock Purdy and company are seeing more man-coverage looks than they did a year ago. Taken together, it starts to explain some of the team’s issues over the first eight games: why the red zone has been tougher to navigate than it was last season (McCaffrey already had scored 13 touchdowns by this point last season); why YAC production is down (no McCaffrey plus teams are bringing safeties up and dropping linebackers back to clog the middle of the field); and why Purdy is hanging onto the ball far longer than he was last season (throwing windows are reduced in man coverage).
The man coverage part shouldn’t be a surprise. During locker clean-out day following the Super Bowl, Purdy said he figured the way the Kansas City Chiefs clamped down on receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. — Purdy was a combined 6 of 17 targeting them — would be a blueprint for opponents this season.
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The good news for the 49ers is that not every team has a secondary like the Chiefs and not every team is adept at man coverage. Of their nine remaining opponents, the Detroit Lions use it the most — 43.8 percent of the time, according to Fantasy Points Data. The other eight defenses use it less than 29 percent of the time and San Francisco’s upcoming opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, use it less often than any team. All of those teams could increase their usage when they face the 49ers, but it’s hard to see any team radically changing what they’re best at.
Another positive sign is that the YAC yardage, while still down compared to last year, has started to creep up. Over the first four games, the 49ers didn’t reach 100 yards of YAC once. They’ve hit that mark in three of the last four weeks, including with a season-high 141 yards on Sunday. The exception? Week 7 against Kansas City when they finished with 73.
Teams are spying on Brock Purdy
Another result of increased man coverage — Purdy is taking off and running with the ball more than he did last season. He’s already surpassed his rushing total from his 16 starts last season (210 yards versus 144) and has picked up more first downs than last year (22 versus 15). The 49ers’ leader in rushing touchdowns this season? It’s a tie between Purdy and running back Jordan Mason; both have three.
Purdy’s rushed so effectively that teams, including the Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, have started using a spy on him in case he vacates the pocket.
“There’s ways that they can scheme that up, but then I think it takes away another pass rusher so that I have a little bit more time,” Purdy said after the win over Dallas. “So there are pros and cons to all of it. Defenses pick and choose when they want to do it.”
The reaction to Purdy’s scrambling this season would take on a different tone if he gets hurt while on the run, and there have been a few head-first dives in the last two weeks that make you hold your breath. But the quarterback’s wheels have been one of the reasons the team ranks fourth in rushing yards per game even without McCaffrey, and he’s likely to continue his pace in the second half.
49ers’ patience paid off at running back
A legitimate question as soon as McCaffrey went on injured reserve in Week 2: Why aren’t the 49ers adding another veteran running back?
At that point, the team was almost entirely reliant on Mason because his top backup, rookie Isaac Guerendo, didn’t inspire much confidence. Guerendo had missed most of his inaugural training camp with a hamstring strain, an injury that plagued him in college. And those who watched his scant practices this summer never saw the speed — he ran a 4.33-second 40 ahead of the draft — that prompted the 49ers to draft him in the fourth round.
But the 49ers saw promise in him and it seems that patience is now paying off. As Guerendo’s confidence has grown, so has his speed, and he looked like a dangerous NFL tailback, especially in a zone-running offense, Sunday against the Cowboys.
First @NFL TD for @isaacguerendo!
📺 #DALvsSF on NBC
NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4oaLh pic.twitter.com/elQzbbBvzX— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 28, 2024
If McCaffrey returns to full strength as expected, the 49ers’ problem will go from not having enough tailbacks to figuring out how to use their top three.
Guerendo’s emergence also underscores the strength of this year’s draft class. We cited how good the rookies have been in an earlier “What I’m Seeing” installment. The phenomenon has only grown since then with the emergence of Guerendo and Ricky Pearsall in recent weeks. The 49ers have been forced to turn to rookies this season and they’ve responded.
Something else to think about when it comes to the running back position: Mason is scheduled to become a restricted free agent after this season. The 49ers’ tender offer is going to be very interesting.
Jury is still out on Dee Winters
What about last year’s draft class?
Yeesh — it’s not looking nearly as promising, although there might be a few keepers in the batch.
Earlier this month, for example, the 49ers moved tight end Brayden Willis, a seventh-rounder in 2023, from the practice squad to the active roster. I was told another team was poised to poach Willis, which prompted the move. The 49ers would have let him walk if they didn’t think he was worth developing and he was in uniform for the first time this season on Sunday.
Three other second-year players to note are starting safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who had his first interception of the season Sunday, kicker Jake Moody, who’s missed one field goal this year, and linebacker Dee Winters. Every time it looks as if Winters is ready to take a jump, he gets sidetracked. An ankle injury suffered before the regular season hampered him early on and he suffered a concussion on Sunday.
The 49ers would love to see two things happen at linebacker in the second half of the season: Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) returning to form and Winters becoming their No. 3 linebacker. That would give them speed at the position they haven’t had since Fred Warner, Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair manned the position.
Winters’ development also might influence how hard the 49ers try to re-sign Greenlaw, one of several high-profile players in line for free agency in March.
The 49ers need another defensive end
One of the big offseason questions was whether the 49ers’ rebuilt defensive line would be better than last season’s. Remember, at this point last year the 49ers were putting so little pressure on quarterbacks that they traded for not one, but two, edge rushers, Randy Gregory and Chase Young.
Then in the offseason, they said goodbye to those players, plus Arik Armstead and Clelin Ferrell, and added Leonard Floyd, Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott.
Has it worked? Last year at this time, the 49ers had 18 sacks and 178 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. They currently have 20 sacks and 148 quarterback pressures.
Javon Hargrave’s Week 3 injury is part of the issue and other defenders like Collins and Elliott have been banged up, too. Still, the lack of pop in the pass rush makes you wonder if the 49ers will be back at the trade table at the same position this year.
Nick Bosa’s left-right alignment
Which side of the defensive line is Nick Bosa most comfortable? Midway through the 2021 season, the 49ers gave him license to decide where to line up. Since then he’s mostly opted for the left side, which pits him against the opponent’s right tackle, who is typically weaker than the left tackle in terms of pass protection.
So far, however, Bosa’s tendency to line up on the left edge hasn’t been quite as pronounced as it’s been in recent years, according to TruMedia:
- 2022: 63 percent
- 2023: 72 percent
- 2024: 59 percent
(Top photo: Kelley L Cox / Imagn Images)
