When it comes to new coaches, patience is key — and Craig Berube’s Toronto Maple Leafs are worthy of patience.
That’s an obviously difficult thing to preach in a market where the fan base’s patience has been endlessly tested. That’s been especially true during the last few years of the Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner–William Nylander era. It’s to the point that many wins “don’t matter until April,” while many losses are the “same old Leafs” — a trope often exacerbated by a rampant media machine. After an uneven 5-4-1 start with flashes of excellence amidst several red flags, it can be hard not to say “Welp, same old Leafs.”
With Berube, though, there’s hope in the form of a “new coach bump;” albeit, a delayed one. That’s if he can repeat what he did the last time he took over a seemingly stale team.
The lore around Berube joining the St. Louis Blues and taking a last-place team in January to the Stanley Cup is the stuff of legend. But legends can often be obscured by the passage of time, enough for many to forget that Berube’s Blues took some time to figure things out under their new coach. The “new coach bump” was far from immediate.
That team that woke up in last place in early January? They had already been under Berube’s tutelage for 18 games going 8-9-1 with the first 10 games not offering much optimism in particular. In Berube’s first 10 games, the Blues went 4-5-1 earning a rather pedestrian 48.7 percent expected goals rate — not far off the 47.5 percent rate they were at in the 19 games under Mike Yeo prior. There were flashes of what could be, but it was mostly the same old Blues. A team that entered the season with a lot of promise after acquiring Ryan O’Reilly in the summer still looked like they just didn’t have “it.”
And then it started to click. Slowly, then all at once. The Blues didn’t win a lot over their next 10 games (thanks to some abhorrent special teams), but there was one big sign that they were beginning to come alive: a 57.1 percent expected goals rate. That was their best 10-game segment of the season — and they were only getting started.
It took about 12 games (roughly a month in real time) to settle in under Berube, but from that point forward the Blues were a puck-possession powerhouse. That change in the team’s ability to control games propelled the Blues onto a championship path. But it wasn’t one that happened overnight.
Once it did happen, though, Berube had a well-oiled machine under his belt. In the new year, the Blues went 30-10-5. Their expected goals percentage over that stretch was 57.1 percent.
The lesson here is patience. It’s a long season and while the first 10 games can be helpful signifiers of what’s to come, they are obviously far from the whole story. In the case of the Leafs, it may mean even less where it’s still too early to tell what Berube can really get out of this club. Maybe the Leafs don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt on that front, but the new guy certainly does.
None of this is to say that what happened with the Blues will happen with the Leafs. Just because Berube was able to turn that team completely around six years ago doesn’t mean he can do it again with this team. His track record over his final couple of seasons with the Blues wasn’t exactly illustrious (though those rosters weren’t nearly as stocked as Toronto’s).
But at the very least it is a noteworthy anecdote on what happened the last time Berube took over a team. It’s one that gives some hope that the same can happen with a Leafs team that used to have a much stronger grasp of dictating the pace of play, but has seemed to lose that touch over the last couple of years under Sheldon Keefe. The hope is that Berube can coax that ability to tilt the ice out of this roster again.
Toronto xG at five-on-five under Keefe
2019-20, under Keefe: 53.6 percent (5th)
2020-21: 55.7 percent (2nd)
2021-22: 56.1 percent (3rd)
2022-23: 54.1 percent (5th)
2023-24: 52.4 percent (9th)
Within this year’s inconsistent start, there are hints of that ability for the Leafs to become that again — namely an absurdly dominant road game against an at-the-time, undefeated Winnipeg Jets team. At five-on-five anyway.
In that game, Toronto generated 3.01 expected goals to Winnipeg’s 0.59, an 83.7 percent rate that is not only Toronto’s highest mark of the still-fresh season but the highest mark of the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era. With a 5-0 scoreline at evens, it may have just been Toronto’s best five-on-five game with that trio, period. A truly dominant performance.
There are still some red flags underneath the surface, mainly with special teams. And that spectacular performance comes on the heels of three straight duds that suggest this team is still searching for consistency. But if that game is a sign of things to come and the kind of A-game the Leafs can muster under Berube, they’re in capable hands. The challenge will be finding it more frequently.
With just 10 games in the books, it’s still very early in this Leafs season to pass too many judgments. But at the very least — especially after a performance like the one they just had against the Jets — the new coach deserves extended patience for what he’s trying to build here.
With the talent at Berube’s disposal and his history with the Blues, that could be a powerhouse — one finally able to exorcize decades of demons.
— Data via Evolving Hockey
(Photo: Julian Avram / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
