By Will Sammon, Patrick Mooney and Katie Woo
When it comes to Juan Soto, an executive from a major-league team said, every team should at least try. He’s that good. He’s that young. Now that the World Series is done, Soto officially enters free agency squarely in his prime after hitting 41 home runs with a ludicrous .288/.419/.569 in his age-25 season. The kind of career numbers Soto has produced before turning 26 puts him on a path toward Cooperstown. Soto, a client of super agent Scott Boras, should fetch a long contract worth over $500 million; it’s probably just a matter of how close he gets to $600 million.
Of course, even if all 30 teams take a swing at signing Soto — some still won’t — a few have better odds at landing the star outfielder than others.
After speaking with several executives from various teams across the league, The Athletic weighed every club’s chances of signing Soto and grouped them.
Tier 1: Keep spreadin’ the news
Soto handled being a star in New York with aplomb. Teaming up with Aaron Judge produced constant comparisons to the iconic duo of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. The Yankees hold that kind of lore. Soto seemed to dig it. Every game, fans chanted his name, waved Dominican flags and held signs telling ownership to re-sign him. Soto thrived on that stage, helping lead the Yankees to a World Series appearance. And coming up short only underscored the need to bring Soto back. What if it’s just the beginning in New York?
Tier 1A: The power of Steve Kong
No one has deeper pockets than Mets owner Steve Cohen, who also has a strong appetite for winning. A couple years ago, Boras called Cohen “Steve Kong” while talking about a need in MLB for “more goliaths.” Whatever that means exactly, they seem to have a great working relationship. During the National League Championship Series in Los Angeles, the two chatted for a lengthy period of time. After a successful first year for the club under president of baseball operations David Stearns and manager Carlos Mendoza, landing Soto would electrify the fan base in Flushing.
Juan Soto was asked if he expects the Mets to go after him in free agency:
“I don’t know what’s the teams that are going to come after me. Definitely, I’ll be open to this and every single team. I don’t have any doors closed. I”m gonna be available for all 30 teams pic.twitter.com/3VICeWeney
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) October 31, 2024
Tier 1B: Always lurking
This is the newly-minted World Series championship super team with the money, the ambition and the cachet to be in on anyone they want. That doesn’t mean Soto’s preference is to turn his back on New York and play on the West Coast. But one phone call or text message from Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman could change the entire tenor of these negotiations.
Tier 2: Rich, desperate, aggressive
They aren’t the frontrunners, but cases can be made for these large-market teams to join the Soto sweepstakes. Multiple executives listed the Giants and Red Sox as clubs that should be part of some kind of second tier of potential suitors.
Both the Blue Jays and Giants were finalists for Shohei Ohtani last year. San Francisco has also whiffed on Carlos Correa, Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge, though it wasn’t due to an unwillingness to spend. The Giants are under a new regime, with Buster Posey taking over as president of baseball operations. Still, Posey is expected to jumpstart the Giants, and his competitiveness could lead to an aggressive approach in his first winter as head of the franchise.
Toronto is coming off a dismal season. Closing a megadeal for Soto would immediately change its fortunes and take some heat off a front office that has not maximized Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The Phillies can’t be ruled out, either, as they try to extend their competitive window. “There’s a skill in talking owners into spending money,” one league source said. “Dave Dombrowski has been great at it.”
Tier 3: Already had their chance
In these types of negotiations, Boras wants to engage teams at the ownership level, pitching the free agent as an overwhelming economic force while also gathering information to share with the star player about how the franchise intends to build around him. Boras enjoyed particularly close relationships with Nationals owner Ted Lerner and Padres owner Peter Seidler, who both died in 2023, and their succession plans created new uncertainty.
Boras recently told USA Today that he was “knee-deep” in Soto negotiations before Seidler’s death, predicting that Soto never would have been traded to the Yankees if Seidler was still alive. The Nationals had traded Soto to San Diego after he rejected a 15-year, $440 million extension offer, which showed a willingness to make him the highest-paid player in baseball history. One AL executive said he’d place the Nationals among the top tiers of this exercise.
Tier 4: Doubt it
Boras would argue that a 26-year-old player on a Hall of Fame trajectory would fit on any team’s timeline. Soto could be the finishing piece to a championship-caliber club, the magnet to attract other free agents to a rising team, or the superstar who takes pressure off young players in a rebuilding organization. The marketing potential at an iconic venue such as Wrigley Field would be enormous.
But some owners and executives will simply insist that the timing isn’t right, or maintain that an extreme length to a long-term contract almost never makes sense. It could be a risk-averse philosophy, a payroll tied up with future commitments or fears that the cable TV money is disappearing.
Despite their heavy interest in Soto at the 2022 trade deadline, the Cardinals are going through a transition period that will take them out of the running for nearly every marquee free agent this winter. It will be interesting to see if the Orioles operate differently now that private equity billionaire David Rubenstein fully controls the club, and whether a mystery team emerges.
“Just a hunch, but wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit got involved,” an NL executive said. “They should build off their 2024 and already have some very good pitching.”
Tier 5: Not happening
The Rays take an unconventional, open-minded approach — they pursued Freddie Freeman before he left Atlanta for Dodger Stadium — but there’s not a realistic scenario where Soto’s market craters and a low-revenue franchise swoops in.
(Top photo of Juan Soto at Yankee Stadium: Robert Gauthier /Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
