It’s November and things are starting to get tight in college football. Not just in the playoff chase and in conference races, but in the Week 10 matchups. My college football projection model has six games as pick ’ems.
South Florida at FAU, Minnesota at Illinois, Northwestern at Purdue, North Carolina at Florida State, Arizona State at Oklahoma State and Colorado State at Nevada are the six games my model is basically shrugging at. My model also has Ohio State by just two points at Penn State ahead of Saturday’s showdown. There are a ton more games within a field goal so there’s a good chance of some chaos this week in college football.
For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 10 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my best bets for the week.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 10 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tulane |
|
|
57
|
54.5
|
 Charlotte |
16.5
|
14.5
|
|
|
 Georgia St. |
|
|
50
|
48.5
|
 UConn |
-6
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 South Florida |
|
|
50
|
47.5
|
 FAU |
0
|
2.5
|
|
|
 San Diego St. |
|
|
51
|
57.5
|
 Boise State |
-20
|
-23.5
|
|
|
 Ohio State |
|
|
47
|
45.5
|
 Penn State |
2
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Duke |
|
|
57
|
54.5
|
 Miami |
-20.5
|
-20.5
|
|
|
 Ole Miss |
|
|
56.5
|
53.5
|
 Arkansas |
6
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Air Force |
|
|
44
|
41.5
|
 Army |
-24
|
-22.5
|
|
|
 Minnesota |
|
|
48.5
|
45.5
|
 Illinois |
0
|
3
|
|
|
 Northwestern |
|
|
43
|
45.5
|
 Purdue |
0
|
-1
|
|
|
 Stanford |
|
|
44
|
46.5
|
 NC State |
-8
|
-10
|
|
|
 Virginia Tech |
|
|
56
|
53.5
|
 Syracuse |
3
|
4
|
|
|
 Buffalo |
|
|
47
|
47.5
|
 Akron |
3
|
1
|
|
|
 Toledo |
|
|
50
|
54.5
|
 E. Michigan |
7.5
|
9.5
|
|
|
 Memphis |
|
|
54.5
|
60.5
|
 UTSA |
6.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
 Vanderbilt |
|
|
49
|
47.5
|
 Auburn |
-8.5
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Old Dominion |
|
|
56.5
|
60.5
|
 App. State |
1
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Tulsa |
|
|
60
|
57.5
|
 UAB |
-1
|
-3
|
|
|
 Oregon |
|
|
45.5
|
44.5
|
 Michigan |
14
|
14.5
|
|
|
 Florida |
|
|
53.5
|
52.5
|
 Georgia |
-16.5
|
-14.5
|
|
|
 Texas Tech |
|
|
55.5
|
56.5
|
 Iowa State |
-11.5
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 Indiana |
|
|
54
|
52.5
|
 Michigan St. |
7.5
|
8
|
|
|
 Kansas State |
|
|
48
|
45.5
|
 Houston |
13
|
13.5
|
|
|
 UCLA |
|
|
40
|
39.5
|
 Nebraska |
-10
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 UNC |
|
|
52.5
|
50.5
|
 Florida State |
0
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Arizona |
|
|
55
|
55.5
|
 UCF |
-4
|
-6
|
|
|
 Middle Tenn. |
|
|
52
|
51.5
|
 UTEP |
-1.5
|
-3
|
|
|
 ULM |
|
|
50
|
47.5
|
 Marshall |
-12
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Navy |
|
|
49.5
|
48.5
|
 Rice |
13
|
11.5
|
|
|
 Wyoming |
|
|
54
|
60.5
|
 New Mexico |
-6.5
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Coastal Car. |
|
|
49.5
|
53.5
|
 Troy |
3.5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 UMass |
|
|
60.5
|
59.5
|
 Miss. State |
-16.5
|
-18.5
|
|
|
 Arizona State |
|
|
58
|
57.5
|
 Oklahoma St. |
0
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Hawai’i |
|
|
47
|
46.5
|
 Fresno State |
-11.5
|
-13.5
|
|
|
 Texas A&M |
|
|
44.5
|
44.5
|
 South Caro. |
2.5
|
3
|
|
|
 Georgia So. |
|
|
59.5
|
60.5
|
 South Alabama |
-7
|
-6
|
|
|
 Louisville |
|
|
61.5
|
61.5
|
 Clemson |
-11.5
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 USC |
|
|
55
|
55.5
|
 Washington |
2.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 TCU |
|
|
65
|
64.5
|
 Baylor |
-1
|
-3
|
|
|
 Kentucky |
|
|
47.5
|
45.5
|
 Tennessee |
-14
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Pitt |
|
|
55.5
|
57.5
|
 SMU |
-6
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Wisconsin |
|
|
42
|
40.5
|
 Iowa |
-3
|
-3
|
|
|
 Colorado St. |
|
|
50
|
45.5
|
 Nevada |
0
|
2.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Cam Ward: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
