No player heading toward free agency this offseason changed their value more profoundly over the past year than Sean Manaea. Forget everything you knew in the past about the lefty. He improved his velocity, altered his repertoire and even switched his arm angle during the middle of the season. The results point to a pitcher worth placing among the tier for available No. 2-type starters.
Last offseason, the Mets signed Manaea to a two-year guarantee that included a player opt-out for 2025 he will all but certainly exercise, so that he could help stabilize their rotation. Instead of simply providing serviceable innings, Manaea emerged as the Mets’ best starting pitcher while showcasing durability over the regular season. In 32 starts and 181 2/3 innings, he had a 3.47 ERA/3.83 FIP with a 1.08 WHIP and 184 strikeouts. This offseason, he should see more lucrative offers.
Both sides said they were open to a reunion. Behind Alonso, Manaea, who turns 33 in February, projects as the Mets’ best free agent.
Need in 2025 and beyond
The Mets enter the offseason with a recovering Kodai Senga at the top of their rotation and David Peterson, Tylor Megill and the injured Paul Blackburn filling out the rest. Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel sit in the minor leagues, though none look ready for an Opening Day spot in the rotation.
In other words, New York needs starters, plural, heading into next season. Given how he finished the season, Manaea can slot in toward the top of that rotation, right alongside Senga.
The market
Manaea’s second-half performance should place him firmly in the second tier of free-agent starters, behind the likes of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell. That second tier should include Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, Yusei Kikuchi and Nathan Eovaldi.
Other teams that might be interested
It’s a quality starting pitcher, so it’d be easier to list the teams that wouldn’t be interested in a player like Manaea. That said, you’d expect current contenders with openings in their rotation like the Cubs, Dodgers, Orioles and Tigers to be the most aggressive in pursuing him.
Projected salary
Manaea’s age limits the length of his next deal when compared with a younger pitcher like Flaherty, who is 29. Something between the three-year, $63 million deal signed by former Met Chris Bassitt with Toronto two winters ago and the four-year, $80 million deal signed by Eduardo Rodriguez with Arizona last winter should work.
What should be the Mets’ level of interest?
High, obviously. The marriage between Manaea and the Mets was mutually beneficial in 2024, with the lefty putting together what he called the best season of his career and the Mets getting close to ace-level production during the most important stretch of the season. Manaea maintained that level, with enough peripherals behind it to indicate it’s far from a fluke, to intrigue most any team.
There’s a risk here, too. In utilizing the lower arm slot, Manaea is copying Chris Sale — hardly the paragon of pitcher health in his 30s. Manaea felt fine doing it for three months. Will he still feel fine using it for three-plus years? (His athleticism and creativity suggest that if this style of pitching falters at some point he’d still be able to find success.)
Ultimately, the Mets must decide how big to go with their rotation additions this winter. Do they splurge for a top-level arm or run out a rotation that looks like this year’s? Manaea might not fit both plans.
(Photo of Sean Manaea: Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
