MADISON, Wis. — Quarterback Braedyn Locke was standing on the Camp Randall Stadium sideline with less than two minutes remaining in the first half against Iowa last year when his season changed in an instant. Wisconsin starter Tanner Mordecai had broken his throwing hand during a follow-through that smacked a Hawkeyes helmet while completing a short pass.
Mordecai stayed in for one more play but tucked the ball before looking toward the sideline and yelling, “I can’t throw.”
Thrust into the first significant snaps of his college career, Locke quickly learned what so many players before him had about the challenge of facing Iowa’s defense. He helped to lead a pair of third-quarter field goal drives but nothing more, was sacked in the end zone for a safety after fumbling, lost another fumble and threw an interception on his final pass during a 15-6 defeat.
Iowa won playing the Iowa way — one of six victories last season in which the Hawkeyes scored 20 points or fewer.
Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
“I think a lot of people would probably look at that and think that if you don’t score a lot of points, you’re really susceptible to losing,” Locke told reporters this week. “Well, not at Iowa. They find ways to win games when they do score a lot of points and when they don’t score a lot of points. I have a lot of respect for that.
“They play complementary football. They’re good in all three phases. It’s got to be an extreme high level of execution. They’re not going to make mistakes. And they’re going to thrive if we make mistakes. We have to really be locked in and focus on what we’re doing.”
Locke has eight starts since that game and has played meaningful snaps in reserve in two others due to injuries after replacing Mordecai against Iowa and starter Tyler Van Dyke earlier this season against Alabama. Although Locke has more experience than he did in this matchup a year ago, his ability to limit mistakes will continue to go a long way toward determining Wisconsin’s chances against Iowa at 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.
Locke has been intercepted in each of his five starts this season, including a crushing pick six against Penn State on Saturday that gave the Nittany Lions the lead in the third quarter of a 28-13 victory. Iowa doesn’t have a top-five pass defense and scoring defense like last season, but the Hawkeyes remain plenty good and rank in the top 25 in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. They have forced 15 turnovers — including 10 interceptions — to rank tied for second in the Big Ten.
Here are three questions Wisconsin can answer Saturday, plus a prediction.
Can the defense slow Iowa’s run game?
Iowa has a bona fide star at running back in Kaleb Johnson, who ranks second in the country in rushing yards per game (143.0) behind only Ashton Jeanty at Boise State. Johnson’s 16 rushing touchdowns rank fourth nationally and represent the third most in a single season in Iowa history — and that’s with a month left in the regular season. He has scored at least one touchdown in eight straight games, which is the longest streak by an Iowa player since the Kirk Ferentz era began in 1999.
Johnson isn’t beating opponents with a series of 3-yard runs, either. He is averaging 7.84 yards per carry — fourth in the nation — and leads the country with 20 rushes of at least 20 yards. If Wisconsin wants to have any shot to beat Iowa, it begins with slowing Johnson.
“Iowa is Iowa,” Wisconsin safety Hunter Wohler told reporters. “They’re going to do what they’re going to do. They’re going to run the ball. They’re going to line up in heavier personnels and run it between the tackles and give it to their good running backs. So we know what it is, and now it’s just can we go out there on Saturday and execute it?”
Adding another wrinkle to the matchup is the likelihood that quarterback Brendan Sullivan will start in place of Cade McNamara, who suffered a concussion against Northwestern last week. Sullivan was listed as the starter this week on Iowa’s depth chart, while McNamara wasn’t included in the two-deep. Sullivan offers a running threat Wisconsin will have to contain. He rushed for 41 yards and a touchdown last week. Wisconsin has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this season, including Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Penn State’s Beau Pribula in the second half Saturday.
How does Wisconsin establish the run?
Let’s face it: Wisconsin-Iowa games typically are won in the trenches, which is why the rushing attack for each team will be such a focal point. Wisconsin looked so good in beating lesser foes during a three-game winning streak because, in addition to a handful of big pass plays from Locke, the Badgers rushed for an eye-popping 736 yards. Running back Tawee Walker accounted for 417 of those yards.
But during Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State, the Badgers averaged just 3 yards per carry and finished with 81 yards. Punter Atticus Bertrams had the team’s longest run from scrimmage on a 15-yard gain in the first quarter. Wisconsin has averaged 3.6 yards per rushing attempt during its three losses. Badgers coach Luke Fickell has said repeatedly that he wants to lean on the offensive line to create a physical style of play. This is another game that will serve as a test of the group’s progress.
Wisconsin needs to keep Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins from wreaking havoc if its offense wants to thrive. Higgins, who leads the Big Ten in tackles, has had three 14-tackle games this season and finished with 13 tackles and recovered a fumble against the Badgers last season.
Can Wisconsin regain Heartland Trophy?
Wisconsin did well to rally late last season in victories against Nebraska and Minnesota to ensure two trophies remained in the trophy case. But the Heartland Trophy stayed with Iowa, which has won consecutive games in the series for the first time since 2008-09. The Hawkeyes haven’t won three in a row since a four-game winning streak that spanned from 2002 to 2005.
The mark of some of Wisconsin’s best teams in the past decade was an ability to figure out how to beat Iowa. Perhaps no game was as epic as Wisconsin’s 31-30 victory at Iowa in 2010 that helped propel the Badgers to the Rose Bowl. But Wisconsin beat Iowa in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019 — all years in which the Badgers played for a Big Ten championship. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten Iowa in Iowa City since 2018, and this game feels like an especially big deal given where the Badgers are in their season.
“That is up there in terms of I think all college rivalries, period,” Wohler said. “That one means a lot and it signifies a lot. I think both teams pride themselves on being hard-nosed, physical teams. So every time that we get together, it’s going to be a banger of a game. There’s a lot of pride winning that. I’ve had it one time since I’ve been here, so we need to take it home this year.”
Prediction
What is this Wisconsin team made of after a loss to Penn State? We’re going to find out Saturday with another prime-time NBC game as part of the most difficult stretch of Wisconsin’s schedule (No. 1 Oregon looms at home following a bye week). The players seem reasonably upbeat, which is at least a good sign that Fickell hasn’t lost the team despite adversity. The problem is that the level of execution in big games simply hasn’t been where it needs to be.
Iowa isn’t ranked, but the Hawkeyes are formidable, and the home-field advantage at night figures to play a role because fans are right on top of the players at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa still has a sound, consistent defense under Phil Parker and has its best offense in four years with first-year coordinator Tim Lester. Those factors feel like too much to overcome for a Wisconsin team still trying to find its way under Fickell and coming off an emotional Penn State loss.
Iowa 20, Wisconsin 14.
(Top photo of Braedyn Locke: John Fisher / Getty Images)
