Entering Thursday’s game against the Nashville Predators, the Edmonton Oilers roster contained just four players with more than one five-on-five goal through the first 10 regular-season contests.
Defenceman Evan Bouchard led the way with three, followed by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Jeff Skinner.
The first three names are the proverbial heart of the order for Edmonton, and Skinner is one of several quality veterans added over the offseason.
Despite the offensive output, Skinner has been unable to catch on with a feature line for any length of time; prior to Thursday’s game, he was averaging 13:07 per game at five-on-five, No. 3 among Edmonton’s four skill wingers.
His most common centre was third-line option Adam Henrique.
On the power play, Skinner is averaging 1:13 per game through 10 contests. There are five forwards ahead of him.
Are the Oilers overlooking a useful offensive weapon?
Edmonton’s left wingers
Skinner was behind everyone in preseason, barely impacting the flow of play while he was on the ice. In 44 minutes at five-on-five, he failed to deliver any points and helped his line deliver just a 17 percent goal share.
Since the season began, Skinner has been a performance leader. The coaching staff is attempting to marble the skill players across three scoring lines, and Skinner delivered on opportunity through 10 games.
| Player | TOI-Game | Pts-60 | X-Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeff Skinner |
13:07
|
1.83
|
54
|
 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
13:00
|
0.92
|
43
|
 Mattias Janmark |
10:51
|
1.11
|
41
|
 Vasily Podkolzin |
10:31
|
0.57
|
65.5
|
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Skinner isn’t playing much with McDavid and has been used sporadically with Draisaitl (36 minutes, or about 27 percent of his overall five-on-five time entering the Nashville game).
Considering those things, his offensive output should be considered exceptional compared to this group of (so far) unimpressive offensive wingers.
Yet Skinner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have played about the same amount at five-on-five this season. Nugent-Hopkins has a better on-ice goal share (4-3) compared to Skinner (5-5), but the difference is marginal and Skinner has been the more productive player overall.
Newcomer Vasily Podkolzin has helped keep the puck going in the right direction (expected goals) despite being 2-6 goals overall at five-on-five. Entering the Nashville game, Podkolzin-Draisaitl were 0-4 goals despite a 61 percent expected goal share.
The Draisaitl line, featuring Podkolzin, enjoyed an impressive evening against the Predators.
Skinner’s resume
Skinner’s numbers over the past three seasons with the Buffalo Sabres shine like a diamond. He averaged 2.61 points per 60 at five-on-five over those three campaigns, with a 54 percent goal share and 50 percent expected goals.
That’s an exceptional player.
Here’s a look at Skinner’s performance with each of Edmonton’s top centres leading into the Nashville game:
| Player | Skinner pts-60 | Line X-Goals |
|---|---|---|
 Adam Henrique |
1.13
|
40 pct
|
|
0
|
65 pct
|
|
 Connor McDavid |
3.83
|
61 pct
|
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Skinner has been highly successful with the currently injured McDavid, scoring one goal on 10 shots in less than 16 minutes of work. It’s a tiny sample, but Skinner has had success in that narrow view. The 10 shots on goal is a clear indicator of chemistry between him and the captain and the two high-danger chances delivered by Skinner in that period are also a positive arrow.
The Oilers have been running with Nugent-Hopkins on McDavid’s left wing this season, with the duo 2-2 goals in 62 minutes. That works out to 1.93 goals per 60, a low number for an impact centre like McDavid.
Skinner and McDavid are scoring 3.83 goals per 60 in their brief time together.
Based on available information, and acknowledging the small sample, Edmonton’s coaching staff should consider running Skinner with McDavid when the captain returns to duty.
Power play
Skinner’s power-play abilities are clear. Over his final three seasons with the Sabres, he averaged almost three minutes per game with the man advantage. His 1.87 goals per 60 and 3.93 points per 60 totals give evidence of how effective he can be on a power play.
In the first 10 games of this Oilers season, Skinner played just over 12 power-play minutes with nothing to show for it.
However, winger Zach Hyman played 39 minutes with zero points and Nugent-Hopkins had one assist in 38 minutes.
Skinner and Arvidsson (one point in 14:30) warrant power-play time when the top two wingers are delivering far less than expected results.
Nuge?
It’s something close to sacrilege to suggest Nugent-Hopkins gets punted off the McDavid line, but he is among the Oilers forwards who look a step slow this year. His top skating speed a year ago was in the 68th percentile in the NHL, but it has fallen to just a little better than average this season.
One of Nugent-Hopkins’ strengths has been his ability to make quick stops and starts in order to be around the puck often and impact the play. It’s one of the things that has allowed him to be an effective forechecker for over a decade in the NHL.
This season, Nuge looks a little late to plays and isn’t having the same impact.
NHL teams never discuss injuries, but the five-on-five metrics suggest it’s possible.
Nugent-Hopkins has far fewer takeaways (0.92 per 60) compared to last season (2.38 per 60), and his high-danger chances and shots per 60 are also down year over year, via Natural Stat Trick.
If there is no injury worry, then the falloff in performance is even more concerning. Nugent-Hopkins is 31, an age when offensive ability sometimes takes a dive.
Thursday vs. Nashville
Skinner didn’t see the ice on the power play, but the Oilers rolled five-on-five with Draisaitl continuing his dominance in Music City.
The coaching staff ran Skinner with Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman for much of the night. The trio was outshot 7-2 at five-on-five but did manage a lovely goal (by Hyman) that featured an assist by Skinner.
The star on left wing for Edmonton on the night was Podkolzin, who flattened defenceman Jeremy Lauzon in a spirited fight and picked up an assist. It isn’t a stretch to suggest the big winger is putting himself in a position to play on the Draisaitl line on a regular basis.
Which brings us to the matter at hand. The eye test suggests Skinner has been a superior player (over Nugent-Hopkins) and he has flourished in the few minutes played with McDavid five-on-five.
The Oilers coaching staff may be facing a decision when the captain returns.
Skinner has earned playing time on a feature line and has eye-popping numbers with McDavid.
With Nugent-Hopkins struggling, Skinner with McDavid (when he returns) could be a perfect fit.
(Photo: Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
