(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Nov. 4, 2024.)
4. Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and … Daniel Jones? How long will the Giants wait?
With the Giants falling to 2-7 after a Daniel Jones lost fumble created the biggest single-play EPA swing of this 27-22 defeat to Washington, coach Brian Daboll predictably faced more questions about his quarterback’s viability.
“The words ‘Daniel Jones’ and ‘injury guarantee’ are going to come up so much this year,” a 2024 Quarterback Tiers voter predicted before the season.
We are getting closer to that point with every Giants defeat because Jones’ contract carries $23 million in injury guarantees for next season. That’s money the team could avoid paying by releasing Jones after the season, unless Jones were to suffer a serious injury during the second half of this season. In that case, the team could become liable for all or part of that money ($12 million of it becomes fully guaranteed at the start of the 2025 league year, which is March 12).
These sorts of considerations have, from all appearances, led other teams to bench high-priced, low-producing starters in recent seasons, from Derek Carr in Las Vegas to Russell Wilson in Denver. Those teams waited until Week 17 before benching their starters.
| QB | Injury Guarantee | Benched |
|---|---|---|
|
$40,000,000
|
2022 Week 17
|
|
|
$37,000,000
|
2023 Week 17
|
|
|
$23,000,000
|
TBD
|
Would the Giants turn to backups Drew Lock and/or Tommy DeVito earlier than that? The intensity of the New York-area media market differentiates that situation from others. Jones also has much less career production than Wilson or even Carr had previously. He has also suffered serious injuries more frequently, including last season.
Via NFL research, #Giants QB Daniel Jones is the first QB since 1991 to have 0 or fewer pass yards and 1+ pass TD in the 1st half of a game with 5+ pass attempts.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) November 3, 2024
Reporters covering the Giants pressed for clues Sunday.
Did the Giants run the ball so much early in Week 9 because Daboll feared putting the ball in Jones’ hands? A variation of the question arose at Daboll’s postgame news conference after the Giants passed only six times in 22 chances on early downs in the first 28 minutes against Washington. The 27.3 pass rate in those generally neutral situations was the lowest for the Giants in 45 total games since Daboll became coach.
"We felt comfortable, that was the plan coming into the game was we wanted to run the ball, control the line of scrimmage. Has nothing to do with Daniel throwing it or not throwing it."
Brian Daboll was asked again about the Giants' run-heavy gameplan in the first half: pic.twitter.com/7U97L8WU68
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) November 3, 2024
One of those six early pass plays doomed Jones’ statistical line Sunday. It also might have doomed the Giants to their defeat. And it will lead to continued speculation about Jones’ viability.
The Giants had first-and-10 from the Washington 29-yard line in the first quarter. Jones took a sack and fumbled. The Commanders took over at the Giants’ 31 and soon scored the game’s first touchdown. This single play cost the Giants 8.1 EPA, the biggest swing on any single sack in Week 9. (If the officials had not blown the play dead, the fumble would have been returned for a TD, making the EPA swing larger.)
One factor working in Jones’ favor: He is getting the ball to rookie receiver Malik Nabers, whose nearly 29 percent team target share ranks third in the league behind Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson.
(Photo: Al Bello / Getty Images)
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