A year ago at the general managers’ meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller met with New York Yankees counterpart Brian Cashman to resume discussing a potential blockbuster involving star outfielder Juan Soto. This week in San Antonio, another round of GM meetings will get underway as free agency fully opens and the offseason begins in earnest.
Preller no longer has the biggest trade chip in the game; Soto, now the biggest free agent in the sport, was dealt to the Yankees a month after the executive sat down with Cashman in Arizona. But the Padres still must find ways to sustain momentum after a surprisingly successful 2024 campaign, a crushing exit from the postseason notwithstanding. Here’s how their offseason breaks down.
Major team needs
Last offseason, after the departures of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, the Padres again assembled one of the better rotations in baseball. Michael King, acquired in the Soto trade, thrived in his first season as a full-time starter. Dylan Cease, acquired with the help of another piece from the Soto trade, fronted the rotation and threw a no-hitter. Rookies Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez, yet another part of the return for Soto, stepped up to supply important innings. Now, Joe Musgrove’s recent Tommy John surgery necessitates that the Padres acquire at least two starters to supplement a rotation currently led by Cease, King and Yu Darvish.
Besides that pressing need, the Padres might require replacements in left field and at catcher, depending on how talks progress with new free agents Jurickson Profar and Kyle Higashioka. San Diego could use another high-leverage left-hander; Tanner Scott is expected to sign elsewhere, and Adrian Morejon could get an opportunity to start again. With Ha-Seong Kim off to free agency, shortstop is another area of concern, although the Padres might believe they have little choice but to send Xander Bogaerts back to the left side of the infield.
Still, it seems reasonable to expect starting pitching and payroll considerations to headline the offseason. According to FanGraphs, the Padres already are projected to be slightly over the 2025 luxury tax threshold. Will they be inclined to stay in that range or spend further? Might they pursue more flexibility by looking to move, say, closer Robert Suarez or infielder Jake Cronenworth? Could San Diego make another play for Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet, this winter’s top trade candidate (and an especially appealing one in terms of projected salary)? Even with few notable prospects left aside from Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries, Preller should never be ruled out of such a pursuit.
Free-agent decisions
The Padres’ list of free agents:
• Profar
• Higashioka
• Scott
• Kim
• Outfielder David Peralta
• Infielder Donovan Solano
• Left-hander Martín Pérez
• Catcher Elias Díaz
• Shortstop Nick Ahmed
The Padres would especially love to bring back Profar, Higashioka and Kim, all key contributors in the team’s run to October. Profar and Kim, though, could quickly price themselves out of San Diego’s desired range. Kim’s recent labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder is an interesting variable; the infielder is not expected to be ready for Opening Day, leaving open the possibility of the Padres convincing him to return on a one-year prove-it deal.
Arbitration/non-tender decisions
The Padres’ list of arbitration-eligible players, along with projected 2025 salaries, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors:
• Infielder Luis Arraez ($14.6 million)
• Cease ($13.7 million)
• King ($7.9 million)
• Right-hander Jason Adam ($5.3 million)
• Morejon ($1.8 million)
• Catcher Luis Campusano ($1.7 million)
• Utility player Tyler Wade ($900,000)
• Right-hander Luis Patiño ($800,000)
Arraez and King are candidates for contract extensions, and it would behoove the Padres to explore a potential multiyear deal that would lower the average annual value of Arraez’s compensation. Cease, another player entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, represents a trickier case. Like Kim, the right-hander is represented by Scott Boras, who almost always steers prominent (and healthy) clients toward free agency.
If the Padres and Arraez can’t find common ground on a possible extension, the club might consider trading the infielder rather than non-tendering him. The only obvious non-tender candidate is Patiño, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late April, although the savings would be negligible.
Among pre-arbitration players, center fielder Jackson Merrill is another extension candidate. The Padres, faced with other financial obligations, might be content to pay him the league minimum for two more years. But if Merrill keeps starring like he did as a rookie, the theoretical cost of keeping him beyond his age-26 season will continue to soar.
Rule 5 protection decisions
Notable minor leaguers eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December include catcher Brandon Valenzuela, right-handers Henry Baez and Ryan Bergert, and lefties Omar Cruz and Jayvien Sandridge. Valenzuela could be ready to audition as a big-league backup option next spring. Cruz and Sandridge received consideration for call-ups this past season. At the moment, the Padres have 34 players on their 40-man roster.
(Top photo of Jurickson Profar: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)
