The New York Jets are past the halfway point of the season. The first half was disappointing, dysfunctional and tumultuous — and that’s being generous — but the the team went into a 10-day break enjoying good vibes for the first time since September after an impressive win over the Houston Texans, a likely playoff team.
another angle of THAT @GarrettWilson_V TD catch 🤯#HOUvsNYJ on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/QsUjlUL1By
— New York Jets (@nyjets) November 1, 2024
But unless the Jets go on a remarkable run to close out the season, it will be too little, too late. Can they pull it off? Will they make any more moves before the trade deadline? What other surprises are in store?
Here are eight predictions for the second half of the Jets’ season:
The Jets will have a quiet trade deadline
Things might have looked different if the Jets had lost to the Texans on Thursday night, which would have ended any hope that they’d be able to turn the season around, forcing them into seller mode at the trade deadline. Teams were already calling about cornerback D.J. Reed and he likely would have been dealt — he’s in the last year of his contract and intends to test free agency. Other players set to hit free agency who might have been trade candidates: defensive end Haason Reddick, tight end Tyler Conklin, left tackle Tyron Smith and cornerback Brandin Echols.
Wide receiver Mike Williams is also far less likely to be dealt now that Allen Lazard (chest) was placed on injured reserve and will miss four weeks, though I wouldn’t completely rule it out. Williams has played 77 offensive snaps the last two weeks with Lazard out. He has one catch (on two targets) for six yards.
Williams and Rodgers have no chemistry, and Williams has often looked lost this season. In Week 8, the Jets had to burn a timeout because Williams didn’t know where to line up. In Week 9, a screen pass to Conklin failed because Williams didn’t know who to block.
On one hand, if he’s more of a detriment than a help, trading Williams makes sense. On the other, the talent is still there if he can learn the offense, and the Jets don’t have any other real options to fill in for Lazard at the moment. Not to mention, they likely wouldn’t get much for Williams in a trade (Diontae Johnson netted the Panthers a late-round pick swap, and Williams might garner less than that).
“With more opportunities I think he’ll become a bigger part of this offense,” interim coach Jeff Ulbrich said.
If the Jets were going to look to add any players at the deadline, maybe that would come in the form of interior defensive or offensive linemen, though that feels unlikely for a team with a 3-6 record.
Aaron Rodgers will fall just short of franchise passing yardage and TD records
The Jets hadn’t had a quarterback throw 10 touchdown passes in a season since Sam Darnold had 19 in 2019. Rodgers threw his 10th in Week 5. They haven’t had one throw for 20 TDs since Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015.
Suffice to say, the Jets don’t exactly have a rich recent history of quarterbacking. But Rodgers is already at 15 touchdown passes and his current pace would land him at 3,980 yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions — statistically on the lower end for his career, but for the Jets it would be one of the best single seasons for any quarterback in team history.
If Rodgers stays healthy and finishes all 17 games he’ll come close to Joe Namath’s yardage record (4,007 in 1967, the only 4,000-yard season in franchise history) and Fitzpatrick’s touchdown record (31 in 2015; second place: Vinny Testaverde’s 29 in 1998).
Can Rodgers get over the hump? I’m skeptical, though the Jets do face some of the league’s lesser pass defenses coming up: The Cardinals, Colts and Jaguars rank in the bottom half of the league. If Rodgers can put together his first 300-yard game since 2021 at some point, maybe he’ll get there.
Garrett Wilson will set single-season Jets records in two categories
Wilson has been on a tear lately, featuring Thursday night’s one-handed touchdown catch that people will remember for a long time.
“Oh, my goodness, (that was) one of the historic plays in all of football, and to see that live is so special,” Ulbrich said. “I’m so happy for Garrett, because it’s just another piece to his evolution and his growth as a player.”
Over the last five games Wilson has accumulated 40 catches on 60 targets for 472 yards and four touchdowns. His numbers for the season: 60 catches on 94 targets, for 663 yards and five touchdowns. That has him on pace for 113 catches on 178 targets, for 1,252 yards and nine touchdowns.
Wilson is on track to challenge parts of Brandon Marshall’s historic 2015 stat line (109 receptions on 173 targets for 1,502 yards and 14 touchdowns). The yardage and touchdown totals feel like tall tasks, especially as Rodgers and Davante Adams get into a groove. But at his current pace, Wilson should hit those target and reception numbers, assuming he plays all 17 games.
Will McDonald will become third Jet to record 13 or more sacks in a season
The 2023 first-round pick has been Jets’ breakout star this season, an unexpected development after he barely played as a rookie. The plan wasn’t to play him this much, but that changed when Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles and Reddick sat out the first half of the season in a holdout. McDonald already has eight sacks in nine games, and before Sunday ranked 11th among all pass rushers (min. 100 pass rushing snaps) in pressure rate.
McDonald is on pace for 15 sacks. I think he at least gets to 13, especially now that he should get more one-on-one matchups with Reddick back in the fold. The Cardinals and Colts, the Jets’ next two opponents, rank highly in pass-blocking, but after that it eases up: Seahawks (25th, per PFF), Dolphins (17th), Jaguars (19th) and Rams (32nd).
The only other Jets to get 13 sacks in a season: Mark Gastineau (three times) and John Abraham, who had 13 in 2001.
Three Jets will make the Pro Bowl
The Jets had three Pro Bowlers last year (Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, Johnson) and four in 2022 (Gardner, Williams, C.J. Mosley and special teamer Justin Hardee).
I think they land three Pro Bowlers again: McDonald, Wilson and Williams. I nearly projected Reed — he’s been one of the best corners in the NFL and deserves it — but it’s challenging for corners to get in without any interceptions, especially since Reed doesn’t have the name recognition of Gardner.
Gardner, linebacker Quincy Williams, running back Breece Hall and punter Thomas Morstead are candidates too.
If McDonald winds up with 13 sacks (as I predicted), he’ll surely get in. Wilson is on pace to finish among the league leaders in all the important receiving categories. And Williams is looking like the 2022 version of himself again: 5.5 sacks, 13 QB hits and 32 total pressures.
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Olu Fashanu will start a few more games — maybe even at multiple spots
Before his first NFL season, Fashanu had only ever played left tackle. He trained a little at right tackle during the pre-draft process and got plenty of reps there during training camp — which allowed him to fill in for Morgan Moses in Weeks 4 and 5. But he had never played guard in his life, even in practice. Until Thursday night.
The Jets lost left guard John Simpson and right guard Jake Hanson to injuries (starter Alijah Vera-Tucker was already out). So tackle Max Mitchell plugged in at left guard and Fashanu — with help from center Joe Tippmann, who guided him on what to do play-to-play — at right guard. He had a holding penalty and allowed two pressures but mostly held his own in a tough spot.
“Remarkable is one of the only words I can give it,” Ulbrich said. “To go in there and function like he did, it’s unbelievable.”
Vera-Tucker has missed two games and it’s unclear how long he, Hanson and/or Simpson will be out with their injuries as of yet. If all three miss Week 10, Fashanu might have to start at guard. If one or two of them are out, Fashanu still might have to play if there is another injury.
There’s also the other possible (if not likely) scenario: Tyron Smith, who hasn’t played a full season since 2015, has to miss games at some point.
Malachi Corley will score a touchdown
Corley made a brutal mistake on Thursday night — letting go of the football before crossing the goal line, thus fumbling it through the back of the end zone for a turnover. Thankfully, it didn’t wind up costing the Jets the game against Houston.
TD @CorleyMalachi!!#HOUvsNYJ on @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/PSt7uVeRru
— New York Jets (@nyjets) November 1, 2024
After the play, Ulbrich said he told the third-round rookie: “First of all, you can’t do that. Second of all, you owe us one.”
It was an impressive run if not for the boneheaded finish. But I think Corley will make up for it at some point before the end of the season.
The Jets will finish 8-9
Eight wins would mean the Jets finished the season on a 6-3 run. Ultimately, I think the they dug themselves in too deep a hole to turn it all the way around and make the playoffs. Fans (understandably) wouldn’t be happy with falling short of the postseason for the 14th straight year, but that finish might be enough to convince owner Woody Johnson to run it back with Rodgers, Adams and Ulbrich in 2025. Whether that would be the right decision is another matter.
(Top photo: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
