MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Five thoughts after Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series semifinal playoff race at Martinsville Speedway…
1. Taking Stock
They all knew. Including Christopher Bell.
Entering Round 3 of the playoffs, each of the remaining eight drivers understood the stakes: Like it or not, this playoff format was likely to require a victory in order to make the championship race. Only one of them would advance on points, so all of them looked at it as if they had to win one of the three races.
That’s exactly why Bell was so crushed after he was headed toward a victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, only to finish second after Joey Logano’s fuel mileage gamble paid off.
Yes, Bell had a great points cushion at the time. He went on to have a historically fantastic average finish during the playoffs. But he knew it could be all for naught.
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“People outside of the industry, they didn’t understand the magnitude of that one position,” Bell said Saturday at Martinsville, one day before his shocking elimination. “All week long (after Vegas), I got, ‘Oh, you’re still plus-42 (points), you’re in a great spot.’ It’s like, ‘No. You’re not in a great spot. Nothing is guaranteed except for wins, and that’s why winning is so important.’”
So even though Bell had what seemed like a decent margin over the cutoff line heading into Sunday’s race, he knew all it would take would be for one winner below the elimination zone — a Ryan Blaney or Chase Elliott, perhaps — to suddenly leave him in a points race with William Byron.
Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened. Blaney stepped up to win when he absolutely had to. And the two drivers who were last in points for this round (Logano and Tyler Reddick) had already won their way into Phoenix.
Drivers below the cutoff line winning means the elimination of the top drivers, and so the likes of Bell (who leads the series in top-fives and top-10s), Kyle Larson (who leads the series in wins), Chase Elliott (who leads the series in average finish) and Denny Hamlin are all gone now. It’s jarring to see none of them advance.
Those four drivers can look back at several moments, but no one more than Bell. The shenanigans at the end of the race didn’t help; two Chevrolet drivers blocked the track behind a fading William Byron so he wouldn’t lose a position, and Bell’s half-Hail Melon was deemed illegal by NASCAR — but that’s ultimately not the primary reason Bell is out.
Bell’s team left a wheel loose on a key pit stop, requiring a second trip to pit road, and ultimately that put him a lap down. He never got back onto the lead lap, and that one bad pit crew moment was enough to end his season.
Surely, Bell is bitterly disappointed. But as he said Saturday, this was a possibility all along if he didn’t win the race.
“This Round of Eight has been absolutely incredible,” he said. “It’s exactly what this format is designed for: the crop of drivers we have, the racetracks we have and literally every race we’ve been to feels like a must-win.”
2. What If?
Typically in this space, we talk about alternate storylines that would have changed the outcome. But there’s one that deserves all the focus this week, and that’s the race manipulation on several fronts late in Sunday’s race.
Just as with last year, Byron was above the cutline but fading and on the verge of falling out of the playoffs. It just so happened that if he lost one more spot, he’d be eliminated.
So instead of passing him, fellow Chevrolet drivers Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain simply rode behind him for lap after lap, forming a two-by-two escort and ensuring no one else would get by.
There was one chance for Toyota to counter that: Bell needed one more position, and Bubba Wallace was ahead of him on the track. Wallace slowed down on the final lap by more than three seconds, which allowed Bell to catch him and make a pass.
The only problem was Bell seemingly had a brief moment of panic, overdrove the corner while trying to get the spot and put himself into the wall. He then rode the wall to the finish line, but NASCAR deemed it too much of a Hail Melon-type move (which is now illegal) and penalized him after a 27-minute deliberation — which put Byron back into the championship.
What if Bell had not done the wall ride? Would he be in, despite the manipulation that went on? NASCAR would not answer with hypotheticals, but it will be fascinating to see how officials respond (or don’t) with penalties this week.
3. NASquirks
Martinsville has a way of shining a harsh light on the unwritten code of what is acceptable when going for race wins (and berths in the next playoff round). Or, to put it another way, as Mark Martin posted on X after Friday night’s Truck Series race: “Ethics are gone in racing.”
In both the Truck and Xfinity Series races, Championship 4 berths were potentially altered by some late-race decisions. Judge Jeff is now on the case to issue rulings on these incidents.
Case No. 1: Truck race
Evidence: Taylor Gray positioned himself for the win on fresher tires and raced Christian Eckes cleanly on a restart while trying to win his first career race and put himself into the championship. But Eckes wasn’t having it, and shipped Gray up toward the wall — then hit Ben Rhodes several times to make sure no one but Eckes would win.
Eckes didn’t have to do that; he was heading to Phoenix even if Gray or Rhodes went to victory lane instead. But in Eckes’ mind, all that matters is winning races — regardless of the method — and he wasn’t going to let his team lose.
The reaction from the crowd wasn’t kind toward Eckes, and Gray confronted him afterward, expressing how he raced Eckes cleanly. Eckes’ response was essentially: That’s your problem.
Taylor Gray is not happy with Christian Eckes. pic.twitter.com/E8kJxHYa4E
— NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Trucks (@NASCAR_Trucks) November 2, 2024
Verdict: This was a legal move, but not one that should be respected. Gray showed he was willing to race it out cleanly and got punted for his efforts. Eckes is correct; if Gray wanted to win, he should have roughed up Eckes (which would have potentially kept him out of the championship, depending on the outcome). But that’s a poor message to send to your competitors, and Eckes may regret it at some point in the future.
Case No. 2: Xfinity race
Evidence: In a must-win situation, Chandler Smith showed some patience before bumping Cole Custer out of the way for the lead. But then when there was another restart, Custer intentionally chose to line up behind Smith and pushed him all the way up the track to thwart Smith’s chances of winning and making the championship race.
Smith then smacked Custer in the face on pit road, though Custer laughed it off.
A heated exchange at @MartinsvilleSwy. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/fYNaHDeIRh
— NASCAR Xfinity (@NASCAR_Xfinity) November 2, 2024
Verdict: Fair game. Custer owed Smith some payback from earlier races anyway, and Smith initiated the contact by bumping Custer out of the way first — which opened the door for retaliation. No one outside of Smith and his family likely had any problem with this one.
4. Championship 4cast
In this space throughout the playoffs, we’re taking a look at the current power rankings for the Championship 4 and comparing them to our pre-playoff picks (Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney). Below is our predicted finishing order for Phoenix:
1. Reddick (pre-playoffs: 2; last week: 2): Reddick actually was tied for the most laps led in the Phoenix spring race (finished 10th), led the second-most laps at New Hampshire (finished sixth) and you’d expect the Toyotas to be fast there in general (Bell would have been our pick for the championship, but he’s now eliminated). It would feel like a very NASCAR storyline for Michael Jordan to be standing on stage and receive the Cup Series championship trophy from NASCAR president Steve Phelps while Jordan’s 23XI Racing is suing NASCAR in federal court.
2. Blaney (pre-playoffs: 4; last week: not ranked): He’s baaaaack. For the second straight year, Blaney went to victory lane at the elimination race at Martinsville — this time in a gritty, must-win scenario — and now heads to a track where he’s been terrific. Can Team Penske really make it three straight titles, with Blaney becoming the first back-to-back champion in this format? It’s certainly possible, and it doesn’t seem like a stretch considering he has six straight top-five finishes there. But the concern would be he’s only led two laps in the last three races combined there, and aside from 2023, the champion has always won the race.
3. Byron (pre-playoffs: not ranked; last week: not ranked): In the spring Phoenix race, Byron was sixth in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2. Jumbled pit strategies and lost position on a restart left him with an 18th-place finish. Is that good enough to come back and win? Maybe. He’s won at Phoenix before and finished fourth in last year’s championship race. Plus, you know all of Hendrick Motorsports is going to put resources toward making sure Byron wins a championship for the team. So it’s certainly possible, but he’s probably not the favorite.
4. Logano (pre-playoffs: not ranked; last week: 4): Again, we’re just not sold on the Logano hype. If you’re picking him to win, you’re basing it on valid reasons — a veteran driver and team who raised their game during the playoffs and have now had two extra weeks to focus solely on the details of the Phoenix race, which is exactly how they won in 2022. But a Logano championship pick isn’t a numbers-based approach. Since the 2022 title race, Logano hasn’t led a lap in three Phoenix starts nor finished in the top 10. Logano was running 12th when he crashed at New Hampshire two-thirds through the race and didn’t lead a lap there; he also was third-best of his teammates at Gateway. Again, Logano can absolutely win and it wouldn’t surprise anyone — but it likely won’t be because he has the fastest car.
5. Best of the Rest
• Austin Cindric (fourth): The latter two rounds of the playoffs didn’t go how Cindric hoped after he advanced through Round 1, but he still managed to pick up his first career top-five finish on a short track (previous best was ninth) — and this after starting from the rear. If Cindric beats Martin Truex Jr. by five points at Phoenix, he’ll finish in the top 10 of the standings for the first time in his career.
• Brad Keselowski (ninth): In a race where all the playoff contenders knew they had to win, it was Keselowski who showed up and led a race-high 170 laps. He never saw the front again once he lost his track position during a green-flag pit cycle, but it was still the most laps he’d led in a race since a Sept. 2020 victory at Richmond.
• Shane van Gisbergen (12th): Yes, we’re skipping over top-10 finishes for Dillon and Chastain, but those felt tainted by their refusal to pass Byron late in the race. So let’s focus on van Gisbergen, who finished a very impressive 12th in his Cup Series short track debut — also his best finish in eight oval starts. “Well, I’ve never really celebrated a 12th place before but after how tough I’ve found the (Cup Series) on ovals I’m pretty happy!!” he posted on X.
(Top photo of Ryan Blaney celebrating Sunday’s win: David Jensen / Getty Images)
