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Welcome to the offseason! This newsletter is down to twice a week now, but let’s get you all set up to know what’s coming as we turn our eyes toward the 2025 season. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Weekend Recap: So much for a ‘quiet’ period
The “quiet period” — in which teams are able to negotiate exclusively with their own free agents and exercise or decline option years — ends at 5 p.m. ET tonight, but there’s been a fair amount of noise over the weekend for an ostensibly “quiet” period. Let’s fill you in on some of the bigger stories (though we’ll save the biggest story for Ken, up next):
- We won’t have a Cody Bellinger Winter of Mystery™️ sequel. The outfielder exercised his $27.5 million option for 2025. As Sahadev Sharma points out, it was a bit of a surprise, given the relative lack of center-field depth in this year’s free-agent class. The Cubs also declined a $10 million option on LHP Drew Smyly.
- Not surprising: The Yankees exercised their $2.5 million option on Luke Weaver, who ascended into the closer’s role last season. The Yankees also declined their $17 million option on first baseman Anthony Rizzo. He will receive a buyout worth $6 million and is now a free agent.
- The Royals kept their rotation intact by signing Michael Wacha to a three-year deal worth $51 million, preventing him from hitting the open market.
- The Braves signed RHP Reynaldo López (three years, $30 million) and LHP Aaron Bummer (two years, $13 million) to new deals that replace team options.
- Infielder Ha-Seong Kim declined his side of an $8 million mutual option with the Padres and will be a free agent. It wasn’t entirely unexpected, but doing so while recovering from a labrum surgery — he may not return until May — is interesting timing.
- The Brewers declined a $10.5 million option on closer Devin Williams, but retain his rights via arbitration. The move will likely only save them $1-2 million, so it doesn’t seem they’re too worried about damaging any long-term sense of loyalty to the club. We’ll see if that means they’re planning on trading him, as they’ve done with so many of their stars in recent years.
Other notable exercised options: Austin Barnes (LAD), Rhys Hoskins (MIL), Merrill Kelly (ARI), Brandon Lowe (TAM), Freddy Peralta (MIL), Miguel Rojas (LAD), Robbie Ray (SFG, declined opt-out), Eugenio Suárez (ARI).
And of course, the funniest one: Jordan Montgomery exercised his $22.5 million option to stay with the Diamondbacks, not long after team owner Ken Kendrick said signing him was the team’s “biggest mistake.”
Other notable declined team options: Joey Gallo (WSN), Eloy Jiménez (BAL), Gary Sánchez (MIL), Lou Trivino (NYY).
Other notable declined player options/opt-outs: Sean Manaea (NYM), Joc Pederson (ARI), David Robertson (TEX), Blake Snell (SFG).
Ken’s Notebook: Will Yankees pay up for Cole?
From my latest column:
If Gerrit Cole were a free agent, would the Yankees sign him to a five-year, $180 million deal covering his ages 34 to 38 seasons?
In a vacuum, the answer probably is no. The Yankees, though, are not operating in a vacuum as they ponder whether to void Cole’s decision to opt out by adding another $36 million year on his contract, a determination they must make by tonight.
So while the rational decision seemingly would be for the Yankees to decline committing to Cole for his age-38 season and send him hurtling into free agency, it would be an upset if that was their actual move.
If the Yankees lose Cole, their 2025 rotation would be down to Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes Jr. and Marcus Stroman. And while the free-agent market is deep in top starting pitchers, from Corbin Burnes to Blake Snell to Max Fried, all come with their own questions, as pitchers always do.
Cole has been a Yankee for five seasons. Their doctors have unique insight into the condition of his arm. As long as they believe Cole is not necessarily headed for a major elbow injury, he is probably as safe a bet as anyone they could sign in free agency or grab in a trade.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner’s reputation also plays into this. Only the Mets and Dodgers carried higher payrolls than the Yankees last season, but a perception exists — mostly among fans, but even among some in the industry — that Steinbrenner should spend more.
Steinbrenner, in theory, could rationalize losing Cole by saying it would make more money available for the team to retain free-agent outfielder Juan Soto. But that argument would fall flat if the Yankees lost Soto, leaving them without two pillars from a team that won the 2024 American League title. Steinbrenner has the money to keep both Cole and Soto. A decision to walk from Cole only would increase the pressure on the owner to sign Soto. And if he lost both … hoo boy.
Cole, then, is the proverbial bird in the hand, and to a degree, five years, $180 million is the going rate for a pitcher of his caliber. Two years ago, the Rangers signed Jacob deGrom — a pitcher who was a year older than Cole and had a far more extensive injury history — to a five-year, $185 million free-agent deal.
The deGrom contract, to this point, has not worked out well. He required a second Tommy John surgery in his first year with the Rangers, and over two seasons has made only nine starts. Of course, calamitous outcomes of that kind are not uncommon with long-term deals for starting pitchers, and deGrom was a higher risk than most.
More here.
Numbers Game: Projecting free-agent deals
This is one of my favorite recurring articles: Tim Britton has his annual projections on some of this year’s free-agent class — more than 40 of them, in fact.
What I appreciate about Britton is his objectivity, and the fact that he really does his homework to find comparable players and trends in contracts over the last few years. For instance, he had Michael Wacha at three years and $60 million, but that was on the open market. Wacha opted to take the guaranteed money now, so it stands to reason it would come in just a little under that mark.
Sometimes teams get creative, of course. Who would ever have predicted last year that Shohei Ohtani would defer all but $2 million of his annual $70 million salary until a decade later?
But by and large, it’s a good resource if you want to know about what to expect.
For the top of the market, that looks like 13 years and $611 million for Juan Soto or seven years and $217 million for Corbin Burnes. Nearer to the bottom of the list are the waning years of Baseball Dads Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer (one year, $12 million each).
Meanwhile, if you’re more concerned about where the players could land, Jim Bowden has a list of 25 predictions from last Friday, including trades, signings and more.
Save This: Important offseason dates
Bookmark this if you want to keep a handy cheat sheet on important offseason dates this winter:
Nov. 5-7 — GM meetings. Think of this as a dress rehearsal for the Winter Meetings, but without all the hoopla and TV/radio booths.
Nov. 19 — Deadline to accept/reject qualifying offers. This is also the Rule 5 protection deadline.
Nov. 19-21 — Owners meetings. Any joke I make here will be redacted.
Nov. 22 — Non-tender deadline, for players who haven’t hit free agency via service time yet. Teams can simply decide not to offer them a contract for next year, and they’ll become free agents earlier than planned.
Dec. 9-12 — Winter Meetings in Dallas. This is like the GM meetings, but with more hoopla and TV/radio booths.
Dec. 10 — Draft Lottery, fate’s favorite method of punishing the A’s for their sins.
Dec. 11 — Rule 5 draft.
Jan. 9 — Deadline to exchange arbitration figures.
Second week in February — Pitchers and catchers report to spring training, and we do this all over again.
Handshakes and High Fives
The Gold Glove award winners were announced last night. There are 14 first-time winners, including Bobby Witt Jr. and Carlos Santana.
A week ago, the Padres had a verbal agreement to sign 14-year-old Cesar Altagracia when he turned 16, for a $4 million bonus. That deal is off, since the shortstop in question is actually 19 years old, MLB found.
Our way-too-early first Power Rankings for the 2025 season focus on the theme of hope. It is, understandably, a wide spectrum.
For Clayton Kershaw, it wasn’t just a toe issue — he had surgeries on his toe and knee, but plans to be back next year
Michael Salfino tells us a little about the history of graded cards, and gives us a list of the most-frequently graded cards of all time.
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(Top photo: Rafael Suanes / Imagn Images)
