Kirby Smart had just wrapped up practice on Tuesday with his Georgia team. The College Football Playoff rankings had not yet come out, so Smart was asked if the field expanding to 12 this year changed his curiosity.
He shrugged, saying, “You look a little further down” the rankings and will hear “talk out there” about how teams were perceived.
“I could care less,” Smart said. “Because what is a quality win and a quality loss right now; they’ve been known to change their mind before it comes.”
The format may be different and the field may be bigger, but Georgia has been through this before. Texas went through it last year. Tennessee did two years ago. Alabama and LSU have plenty of experience with it. So everyone knows the deal by now.
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The first rankings are interesting, but there’s so much football to be played. It’ll either all work itself out in the end, or the real intrigue and consternation over rankings will come in the last week or two.
In the meantime, what we already thought about the SEC’s Playoff picture and what more we learned upon the first official rankings:
The SEC vs. the world
Smart and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey may not love that the committee put Georgia third, behind two Big Ten teams, while the Bulldogs are second in the AP and coaches polls. But there are seven SEC teams in the top 25, by far the most of any conference. (The Big Ten has four.)
That’s important for a couple of reasons:
First, it sets up more teams to make the field, with four in the top 12 (Georgia, No. 5 Texas, No. 7 Tennessee, No. 11 Alabama) and a few in striking distance (No. 14 Texas A&M, No. 15 LSU, No. 16 Ole Miss).
Second, it means more chances for ranked wins, or losses might not be seen as that bad.
Horns, Dawgs, Vols in good shape
Georgia bought itself a lot of room with its win at Texas, giving it a second ranked win, and its only loss came at Alabama. It would seem the Bulldogs need only get a split of the next two games — at Ole Miss, Tennessee — and they would be in, and even if it lost both games, it would have an argument. It will root for No. 23 Clemson, which Georgia routed in the season opener.
Texas and Tennessee also have one loss but a little less leeway.
Texas is clearly in if it wins out, although losing at Texas A&M in the regular-season finale would make things dicey. The Longhorns don’t have any wins over anyone in the Top 25. (Vanderbilt, ranked in the AP, didn’t make the cut in the CFP rankings.)
Tennessee is all set if it wins out because that would mean it would be 11-1 with a win at Georgia. If it is at least competitive at Georgia, 10-2 with two road losses but a win against Alabama may be enough to get it done. Of course, the regular-season finale at Vanderbilt isn’t a sure thing.
Texas A&M, meanwhile, is not in the field right now — 14th — but the assignment seems straightforward: Win out, including the Texas game, and the Aggies are close enough to feel good about their chances.
Important caveat: That’s no guarantee, as it depends heavily on what happens elsewhere. And as Smart pointed out, the committee has been known to change its mind.
Elimination game weekend?
Alabama at LSU this week: The loser has a third loss, which puts its Playoff hopes on the brink. The winner is in great shape. But is the loser truly done and the winner in as long as it wins out?
Alabama would have three losses to ranked teams — LSU, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, if it could sneak into the CFP Top 25 — with one ranked win (Georgia) and some others that would check off as good.
LSU may need the win more. It has a loss to unranked USC and the other to Texas A&M. Its best win is against Ole Miss.
Then there’s Ole Miss, which is almost certainly done if it loses to Georgia this week. But if Ole Miss wins, that would give it something it doesn’t have right now — a ranked win — and winning out would mean a 10-2 record. Still, it has a home loss to Kentucky, and other than the Georgia game, there isn’t much impressive on the resume. So Lane Kiffin’s team would seem at the mercy of the committee and things falling its way elsewhere.
Missouri and Vanderbilt
• Missouri, a team with so many preseason hopes, fell flat against two ranked foes, losing to Texas A&M and Alabama by 65 combined points. It does have a three-point win at Vanderbilt, so Mizzou is yet another team rooting for the Commodores. But even if the Tigers win out, they’re 10-2 and hoping. Their best hope down the stretch is probably to do what they haven’t done thus far: win games going away. Even then, jumping into the field seems very, very unlikely.
• Vanderbilt not making the rankings was notable because teams like Texas would like a ranked win, and Alabama would like a ranked loss. But the committee could at least give those teams credit for wins or losses to bowl teams, or with winning records, so Vanderbilt being good still helps.
Moral of the story?
There are so many important games left and too many data points left to make any grand conclusions. Nobody from the SEC is definitely in yet, and seven teams still have a realistic shot.
That number figures to go down after this weekend. The question is whether it continues going down over the coming weeks or the SEC ends up with a half-dozen candidates for only so many spots.
(Top photo of Kirby Smart: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
