Little about the Baltimore Ravens’ first half has been predictable.
Well, that they opened the regular season with a road defeat to the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t have been too surprising. Yet, a home loss to Gardner Minshew and the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 and a road setback to a one-win Cleveland Browns team six weeks later certainly weren’t expected.
Scoring 35-plus in wins over Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Denver and leading the league in a litany of offensive categories would probably qualify as unanticipated developments. So would the pass defense ranking dead last in the NFL through nine weeks in yards allowed per game; the secondary was billed as one of the team’s strengths.
Then, there’s the individual performances. Expectations are always high for two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson, but it would have been quite optimistic to predict that through nine weeks he’d be first among NFL quarterbacks in passer rating, yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio, and tied for second in touchdowns and third in passing yards.
It seemed most pundits felt the Ravens and running back Derrick Henry were a match made in football heaven, but did anybody think the pairing would be this productive this early? Henry leads the NFL in rushing by 127 yards, is on pace to flirt with a 2,000-yard season, and his 11 rushing touchdowns are three more than anyone else.
On the other side, outside linebacker Tavius Robinson nearly doubling defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike (3 1/2 to 2) in sacks at the midpoint of the season speaks to how difficult it’s been for the Ravens to get the quarterback to the ground.
The first half has featured pleasant surprises and disappointments for the Ravens. Yet, they can’t be too disenchanted by where they are in the standings. Baltimore is 6-3 heading into a key divisional matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals Thursday night.
It’s time for some predictions on how the second half could play out.
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Lamar Jackson wins third MVP award
Only six players in NFL history have garnered MVP honors three or more times, but Jackson has put himself in position to win his third by playing the best football of his career. He was a near-unanimous MVP choice last year, but he’s taken his game and Baltimore’s offense to another level by doing more at the line of scrimmage, improving his accuracy, making better decisions and attacking every quadrant of the field.
There are plenty of other guys having MVP-worthy seasons. Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley and Henry have all played their way into the MVP discussion, and there is plenty of time for others to enter the mix. However, Jackson is widely considered the midseason front-runner. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to expect a dropoff. He’s on pace to finish with 4,494 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes, four interceptions and 954 rushing yards. It will be tough to stay on that pace, but the game has slowed down for Jackson this year and he has the best offensive supporting cast he’s ever had. Why would you bet against him?
Zay Flowers becomes first Ravens homegrown WR to make the Pro Bowl
For all their drafting success over the years, there has been one significant blemish on Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta’s resume — and it’s something they hear about all the time. The Ravens have never drafted and developed a wide receiver who has been selected to the Pro Bowl. It’s the only position on the roster you can say that about.
Jermaine Lewis and Devin Duvernay both made the Pro Bowl, but they were selected as punt/kick returners. Flowers is going to change that. The first-round pick in 2023 is fifth in the league (and third in the AFC) with 654 receiving yards. He’s tied at 14th in the league with 46 catches. He has 100-plus yards receiving in four of his past five games. He’s the top target on an offense that is considered one of the best in the sport, and he’s gaining more and more notice every week. He’s well on his way to a Pro Bowl berth.
Derrick Henry falls short of 2,000 yards but has second-best rushing season in franchise history
With 1,052 rushing yards through nine games, Henry is on pace to finish with 1,987 on the season. That would qualify as the second-most yards in his career, trailing only his 2,027-yard campaign in 2020. Rushing for 2,000 yards in his age-30 season would be quite an accomplishment. Over his career, Henry tends to get stronger as the season goes on with the combination of cold weather and tired defenses leading to more opportunities for the power running game. However, the Ravens expect running back Keaton Mitchell to be back in the coming days. He won’t get a ton of carries, especially in the beginning, but the Ravens will certainly look for opportunities to get the speedster the ball — and that could impact Henry and Justice Hill’s touches.
The Ravens also will want to seize on chances to get Henry some rest and make sure he’s fresh heading into the playoffs. If they have a Week 18 game that has no bearing on their playoff seeding, you can almost bet that Henry will be a bystander for it. Still, with 13 touchdowns already (11 rushing, two receiving), he seems a lock to set the franchise record for touchdowns, which is 15, currently held by Ray Rice (2011) and Mark Ingram (2019). And he could have the second-most rushing yards in a single season in franchise history, behind Jamal Lewis’ 2,066 in 2003.
Baltimore gets creative to fix troublesome pass defense
The trade deadline came and went with the Ravens adding wide receiver Diontae Johnson and cornerback Tre’Davious White. The additions give Baltimore some veteran depth at positions where it’s perennially battling injuries, but the team didn’t address its biggest needs. The Ravens have the 32nd-ranked pass defense. A big reason for that is a lack of a consistent pass rush and rocky safety play beyond Kyle Hamilton. They have to hope a pass rush-by-committee approach produces better results and young edge options Odafe Oweh, David Ojabo, Adisa Isaac and Robinson take significant steps forward in the second half.
As for safety play, they do have room to juggle the personnel. With their cornerback depth, they could get creative and use Brandon Stephens, Marlon Humphrey or perhaps even White in a safety role. Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr will figure out a way to get the team’s best defensive backs on the field, even if that pushes guys into roles they haven’t been featured in during the past.
Ravens return to Arrowhead for another opportunity vs. Chiefs
After their 27-20 loss to Kansas City in Week 1, several Ravens spoke excitedly about the possibility of getting another shot at the Chiefs in the playoffs. They still have to earn it, but it feels inevitable that if the Ravens get to where they expect to be this year, they’re going to have to go through the Chiefs. That’s the way it should be. Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts had to ultimately go through the New England Patriots to win that elusive Super Bowl. Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls had to finally beat the Detroit Pistons before their championship run. It’s just the way things typically go, and Jackson and the Ravens are going to have to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to make it to a Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are 8-0 and don’t play a particularly tough schedule the rest of the way. The playoffs are going to go through Arrowhead. Whether it’s the divisional round or AFC championship, the Ravens will have a chance to exorcise their demons against a team they haven’t been able to beat in a big spot.
(Top photo: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
